Setu

Out today, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, with our new chapter (five) on where the world stands across the action areas of the global stocktake, and what we must do, together, to limit exceedance of 1.5°C🧵 Co-led with @sophieboehm.bsky.social and @louisejeffery.bsky.social

..and paired this with the latest scenario ensemble from the Scenario Compass Initiative (scenariocompass.org), an important community effort, and the newly calibrated ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 scenarios.

Out today, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, with our new chapter (five) on where the world stands across the action areas of the global stocktake, and what we must do, together, to limit exceedance of 1.5°C🧵 Co-led with @sophieboehm.bsky.social and @louisejeffery.bsky.social

Effort will differ by region, reflecting common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. We won't reach these collective milestones through unilateral measures. Everyone must contribute.

Out today, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, with our new chapter (five) on where the world stands across the action areas of the global stocktake, and what we must do, together, to limit exceedance of 1.5°C🧵 Co-led with @sophieboehm.bsky.social and @louisejeffery.bsky.social

..each level is the absolute minimum the world must achieve in a given area to limit exceedance of 1.5°C, without leaning on relatively extreme effort in another area.

Out today, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, with our new chapter (five) on where the world stands across the action areas of the global stocktake, and what we must do, together, to limit exceedance of 1.5°C🧵 Co-led with @sophieboehm.bsky.social and @louisejeffery.bsky.social

Progress has been uneven, solar capacity grew seven times more than was projected in 2015, and the share of solar and wind in electricity is growing exponentially. Meanwhile coal, oil and gas supply, fossil fuel subsidies and methane are all still rising..

Two years plus in the making... our paper building fair effort sharing directly into how integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios are generated is out in Environmental Research Letters🧵 @iopp-environment.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea34d

.. and you can explore results across regions and approaches for yourself. Check out all scenarios, more indicators and the CMIP7 comparison here: setupelz.com/faircoop

Two years plus in the making... our paper building fair effort sharing directly into how integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios are generated is out in Environmental Research Letters🧵 @iopp-environment.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea34d

Broadly, the work argues for moving past the stale equity versus ambition gridlock, to how equity enables ambition. A 'gross emissions reductions first' strategy among higher-responsibility regions generates system-wide benefits and releases pressure on others to collectively meet climate goals.

Two years plus in the making... our paper building fair effort sharing directly into how integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios are generated is out in Environmental Research Letters🧵 @iopp-environment.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea34d

Other fair share studies also often split the problem in two: separating fairness in reductions from CDR. We show this dichotomy can be misleading. The cost-effective response to carbon debt is to avoid accruing it through immediate gross emission cuts, not to scale up removal later in the century..

Two years plus in the making... our paper building fair effort sharing directly into how integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios are generated is out in Environmental Research Letters🧵 @iopp-environment.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea34d

Holding finance to the lowest feasible (read: model feasibility) level redistributes implementation effort. Higher-responsibility regions reduce gross emissions faster, lower-responsibility regions gain room for a more gradual transition, and the global outcome holds (!!!! this is important).

Two years plus in the making... our paper building fair effort sharing directly into how integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios are generated is out in Environmental Research Letters🧵 @iopp-environment.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea34d

..so, we developed an approach to integrate principle-based fair shares directly into the IAM scenario generation process. The global climate outcome of the cost-effective scenario is preserved, while its regional implementation is redistributed. The framework can be applied to *any* scenario.

Two years plus in the making... our paper building fair effort sharing directly into how integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios are generated is out in Environmental Research Letters🧵 @iopp-environment.bsky.social @iiasa.ac.at doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aea34d

Urbanization trends are reshaping human settlement patterns and energy needs. Our recent (open access) work, led by Jessica Kersey and Samuel Miles, explores these dynamics across countries in Sub-Saharan Africa 🧵

Our analysis identifies critical regions where this ‘gap’ is most acute, notably coastal West Africa, Ethiopian highlands, and the Great Lakes region encompassing Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the DRC.

Urbanization trends are reshaping human settlement patterns and energy needs. Our recent (open access) work, led by Jessica Kersey and Samuel Miles, explores these dynamics across countries in Sub-Saharan Africa 🧵

Least-cost electrification planning models typically rely on binary rural/urban delineation for demand estimation and sometimes for supply decisions. Such assumptions significantly influence technology choice, potentially misallocating resources by failing to capture emerging urbanization dynamics.

Urbanization trends are reshaping human settlement patterns and energy needs. Our recent (open access) work, led by Jessica Kersey and Samuel Miles, explores these dynamics across countries in Sub-Saharan Africa 🧵

We combine the Urban Rural Catchment Area (URCA) framework with satellite derived spatial electrification datasets to highlight spatial patterns in electricity access gaps.