Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)

Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)

@socscipredict.bsky.social

The Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP) enables researchers to collect and contribute to forecasts of academic studies. socialscienceprediction.org

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Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 What types of poverty reduction programs will people in middle-income countries support? @fgerard.bsky.social and coauthors invite your predictions! 🗓️ Close: Nov 11 🕐 Time: 15 min 📚 Field: Dev Econ socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/fc...

socialscienceprediction.orgFighting Poverty: International Attitudes Toward Poverty Reduction ProgramsUsing a randomized survey experiment, we study public attitudes toward poverty reduction programmes in eight middle-income countries. This short survey will ask you to predict which types of programs ...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 Interested in how AI memory influences user trust, prediction accuracy, and belief updating? Michael Thaler and Ze Wang invite your predictions! 💰 Incentives available 🗓️ Close: Nov 14 🕐 Time: 15 min 📚 Field: Econ socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0b...

socialscienceprediction.orgAI Memory, Confirmation Bias, and PolarizationThis survey asks for your predictions about an experiment on AI memory and belief updating. We recently recruited 1,000 U.S. participants for an experiment where they made predictions about Donald Tru...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 How accurately do consumers perceive prices and inflation? Hubert Wu invites your predictions on his study of adult survey respondents in the UK! 🗓️ Close: Nov 8 🕐 Time: 5 min 📚 Field: Econ socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/ad...

url8485.socialscienceprediction.orgA Behavioural Cost-of-Living IndexThe cost of living underpins modern welfare measurement but assumes fully rational consumers. In this study, I embed bounded rationality into classical index-number concepts, yielding a behavioural co...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 What are the mechanisms behind the success of Ultra-Poor Graduation Programs (UPGs) in Malawi? @moritzpoll.bsky.social invites your predictions! 🗓️ Close: Oct 31 🕐 Time: 20 min 📚 Field: Dev Econ socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/cc...

socialscienceprediction.orgMechanisms Behind Poverty Graduation ProgramsThe study explores the mechanisms behind the success of Ultra-Poor Graduation Programs (UPGs), aiming to reduce extreme poverty through a livelihood intervention that bundles monthly cash transfers, g...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 New on the SSPP: what are the effects of two alternative models of teacher training in Tanzania? Konstantin Büchel, Lukas Hauck, and Tim Stettler invite your predictions! 🕐 Time: 10 min 📚 Field: Dev Econ 🗓️ Close: Nov 6 socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/24...

socialscienceprediction.orgFidelity vs. Scale: Delivering In-service Teacher Training through NGO and Government Teacher Colleges - Evidence from a three Arm randomized Evaluation in TanzaniaThis survey collects forecasts from researchers and practitioners about the effects of an in-service teacher training program delivered through two alternative models in Tanzania. No personally identi...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 How do interactions between small business managers and bank loan officers impact loan applications in Pakistan? Emma Zhang invites your predictions! 💰 Financial incentives available 🕓 Time: 15 min 📚 Field: Econ 🗓️ Close: Oct 1 socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/82...

socialscienceprediction.orgDo small businesses avoid the bank, or do loan officers refuse to lendImproving small-business access to bank loans is often cited as a way of accelerating economic growth. Even though government subsidies for small business loans exist in over 100 low and middle-income...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

Closing today - last call to make predictions on the impact of journal editors on the availability of replication materials!

Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 Does involving journal editors in replication material requests impact the availability of such materials? @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social and coauthors invite your predictions! 🕐Time: 15 min 🗓️ Closes: Sept 15 📚 Field: Economics socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/30...

socialscienceprediction.orgThe Impact of Journal Involvement on Availability of Replication MaterialsI subject the models defending 135 null claims in 81 articles recently published in top economics journals to equivalence testing, which assesses whether an estimate is significantly bounded within a ...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 How does the value per added worker compare between manufacturing firms in the US and India? @nickbloom.bsky.social and coauthors invite your predictions. 🕐 Time: 5 min 🗓️ Close: Sept 30 📚 Field: Econ socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/ce...

socialscienceprediction.orgManufacturing Productivity: U.S. vs. IndiaWe measure the labor productivity of manufacturing firms in the United States and India using establishment microdata (the U.S. Census of Manufactures; India's Annual Survey of Industries and unorgani...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 How do decision-making frictions, like paying overdraft fees, aggregate to affect inequality? @sdellavi.bsky.social, @timdesilva.me, and Rohan Jha invite predictions across decision making domains! 🕐 Time: 20 min 🗓️ Close: Oct 31 📚 Field: Econ socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/c9...

socialscienceprediction.orgBehavioral InequalityA large body of literature in economics has studied inequality in income and wealth, documenting its evolution, analyzing its determinants, and evaluating policies that could reduce it. The vast major...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 Does involving journal editors in replication material requests impact the availability of such materials? @jackfitzgerald.bsky.social and coauthors invite your predictions! 🕐Time: 15 min 🗓️ Closes: Sept 15 📚 Field: Economics socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/30...

socialscienceprediction.orgThe Impact of Journal Involvement on Availability of Replication MaterialsI subject the models defending 135 null claims in 81 articles recently published in top economics journals to equivalence testing, which assesses whether an estimate is significantly bounded within a ...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 Closing on Monday! Amanda Geiser and Ellen Evers invite your predictions of whether "head" vs. "heart" manipulations affect Prolific participants' likelihood of making a hypothetical risky choice. 🕐 Time: 5 min 🗓️ Close: Aug 31 📚 Field: Psychology socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0e...

socialscienceprediction.orgRisk Aversion – "Following Your Head" vs. "Following Your Heart"We plan to conduct an experiment in which we ask Prolific participants (N=800) to make a hypothetical risky choice by either "following their head" or "following their heart." We will ask you to predi...

Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP) reposted

VoxDev
@voxdev.bsky.social

🆕 Can forecasting social science make experiments better? Today on VoxDev, Stefano DellaVigna (UC Berkeley) &Eva Vivalt (University of Toronto) discuss why research forecasts overestimate effects, and how to correct and reweight them: https://ow.ly/jfjL50ZpWlv

ow.lyCan forecasting social science make experiments better?Evidence from 100 Social Science Prediction Platform projects shows that research forecasts are too optimistic on average, but still predictive enough to improve study design when they are combined, shrunk, and weighted carefully.
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣Closing Friday: how effective are strategies for promoting the completion of voter registration checks in the US? Check out this survey and the other 6 currently open on the platform! Craig Fox, Megan Weber, and Craig Brimhall invite predictions: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/e3...

socialscienceprediction.orgField Experiment Promoting Voter Registration ChecksWe conducted a field experiment that examined the effectiveness of various messaging strategies for promoting the completion of voter registration checks in an online setting in the United States. We ...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📢 New on the SSPP: does an extra year of preschool improve academic and socioeconomic skills? Ramin Izadi et al. welcome your predictions. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/e3... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ, Psych 🗓️Closes: Oct 15

socialscienceprediction.orgDoes an extra year of preschool improve academic and socioemotional skills?We conducted a large-scale field experiment in Finland that advanced the start of mandatory preschool by one year. The RCT is authorized under temporary legislation and will inform an active policy de...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

📣 Interested in making more forecasts? Want to get paid for doing so? Apply for the SSPP Forecasting Panel! Panelists receive $400 a year + a $300 bonus for high accuracy. Apply here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/09... @cega-uc.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

socialscienceprediction.orgApply to Join our SSPP Forecasting Panel 2.0!Would you like to stay informed about the latest developments in social science research, assess your forecasting accuracy, and receive financial compensation for your participation in the process? Ap...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

🚨3 surveys close Sunday, Aug 31! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ 1️⃣ Role of monthly office days in a fully remote work model 2️⃣ Correlation between statistical significance and media attention -💰incentives based on forecast accuracy 3️⃣ Effects of providing information to potential workers

socialscienceprediction.orgSocial Science Prediction PlatformPredict research results, improve social science.
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: what are the economic impacts of university-affiliated research parks? Make forecasts below on this study by @mihaicod.bsky.social: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/46... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Labor Econ 🗓️Closes: Oct 31

socialscienceprediction.orgThe Economic Impact of University Research ParksWe are conducting a study to understand the estimated economic impacts of university-affiliated research parks. Your participation in this survey will help us gather anonymous information on the perce...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: What is the impact of VAT exemptions on food in an informal setting in Papua New Guinea? Christopher Hoy et al. welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/2b... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Dev Econ 🗓️Closes: Sept 30

socialscienceprediction.orgInformality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT ExemptionsWe are soliciting expert predictions about a project analyzing the pass-through and incidence of Value Added Tax (VAT) exemptions on food in a low-income setting with very high levels of informality. ...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: What will be the outcomes of a livelihood support program in Iraq for microentrepreneurs? Study by Andrea Caflisch et al. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/e5... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Dev Econ 🗓️Closes: Sept 30

socialscienceprediction.orgAid, Economic Recovery, and Social Cohesion in Post-War IraqThe protracted nature of recent displacement crises has resulted in increased interest from policymakers, donors, and aid organizations in durable solutions for the challenges faced by the forcibly di...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: How does remote work impact job satisfaction and productivity among call center agents in Turkey? Study by Cevat Giray Aksoy, @nickbloom.bsky.social, and co-authors. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/17... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: Aug 31

socialscienceprediction.orgThe Role of Monthly Office Days in a Fully Remote Work ModelThis trial assesses the impact of remote work with monthly office visits on productivity and job satisfaction among call center agents in Sanliurfa, Turkey. In the partner institution, agents typicall...

Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP) reposted

Eva Vivalt
@evavivalt.bsky.social

New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict? Try your hand at it: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

socialscienceprediction.orgForecasting the SSPP Research ResultsIncreasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But wha...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

🚨4 surveys close Mon, June 30th! Make your predictions at: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ 1⃣ Predicting tax non-compliance in Kampala, Uganda 2⃣ Politically motivated reasoning 3⃣ Predicting the impacts of self-promotion 4⃣ Do different effect sizes in meta-analyses lead to different conclusions?

socialscienceprediction.orgSocial Science Prediction PlatformPredict research results, improve social science.
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: How does using self-promotional language impact responses to requests for support? @jennychang.bsky.social et al. designed a field experiment and invite you to predict their findings: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/6e... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Econ, Psych 🗓️Closes: June 30

socialscienceprediction.orgPredicting the impacts of self-promotionWe study the impacts of self-promotional language on responses to informal requests for support. We conducted a field experiment where we emailed researchers a request to help a team advance an ongoin...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: How does subsidizing early-maturity rice seeds and farmer education impact farmers' decisions in Punjab? New study by Piyush Gandhi, who welcomes your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/ad... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: July 15

socialscienceprediction.orgPredicting the Impacts of Input Subsidy and Training on Environmental Outcomes in AgricultureThis study explores how subsidizing early-maturity rice seeds and providing information on sustainable crop residue management affect farmers’ decisions in Punjab, India. Your responses will help us u...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: Do different effect sizes in meta-analyses lead to different conclusions? April Wang et al. look forward to your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/66... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: June 30

socialscienceprediction.orgDO DIFFERENT EFFECT SIZES IN META-ANALYSES LEAD TO DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS?This survey seeks your views on whether meta-analyses are likely to produce different conclusions when using alternative effect sizes.
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

🚨Closing this Saturday, May 31! How accurate are CEO forecasts of future revenues? Don't miss the chance to make a prediction on this survey and be entered into the lottery for $100.

Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)@socscipredict.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: How do CEOs forecast future revenues and how accurate are they? @nickbloom.bsky.social, @mihaicod.bsky.social, and Robert Fletcher welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/85... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Management 🗓️Closes: May 31

socialscienceprediction.orgRationalizing Firm ForecastsThis project examines a panel survey of quarterly sales forecasts for 6,000 firms. Firm CEOs are asked to predict future revenues that are matched to assess accuracy. We are interested in how data use...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

🏆 Winner Announced! 🏆 Congratulations to Alexander Coutts & Séverine Toussaert — winners of the 2025 SSPP Outstanding Use of Forecasts Award ($10,000) for “Beliefs about choice reversals”! See the winning survey here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/f6...

socialscienceprediction.orgBeliefs about choice reversalsIn this study, you will submit a total of 21 forecasts related to how individuals make choices about future work allocations, what they believe about their future work allocations, as well as other re...
Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)
@socscipredict.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: How do CEOs forecast future revenues and how accurate are they? @nickbloom.bsky.social, @mihaicod.bsky.social, and Robert Fletcher welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/85... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Management 🗓️Closes: May 31

socialscienceprediction.orgRationalizing Firm ForecastsThis project examines a panel survey of quarterly sales forecasts for 6,000 firms. Firm CEOs are asked to predict future revenues that are matched to assess accuracy. We are interested in how data use...