_m

_m

@sonomablue.bsky.social

Aspiring prediction theorist with a focus on meta analytics. “The greatest forecasting risk is often the forecasting system’s inability to recognize the limits of its own observability.” Politics is n-dimensional warfare. Fight accordingly. Throw rocks.

2.2K followers3.8K following363 posts

We need a BSKY badge/icon/emoji that someone can click-post to show they have voted. 10 million badges posted would make one BIG statement.

After the recent comments about Russell Vought and some "mystery plans", there had damn well better be people at DNCC war gaming the fuck out of every possible scenario Vought et al can throw at them. IF NOT, someone go over there and start flipping over tables and tell them to get off their asses.

According to Tucker Carlson in an NPR interview, Trump said of the consequences of the Iran war, "we are all going to dies anyway". Or words to that effect. While the quote is unverified it suggests that that the nihilism of this president is because he (Trump) has been given a fatal diagnosis.

“Evidence is not merely a property of a result; it is a property of the process that produced and selected it. A finding that survives sampling randomness may still disappear once the randomness of the search itself is counted.”

Progress being made removing microplastics. More specifically at minimizing new microplastics entering & binding in the body. No human trials yet, but a bacteria in kimchi shows a high degree of efficacy in animal studies. Yes kimchi, Korean pickled cabbage. To quote Jesse Pinkman "Science, bitch"

_m reposted

Replying to @malena.bsky.social

The craziest thing is that these cameras can be used and have been used to stalk people...ex-wives and girlfriends, crushes, children etc. They can be used to plant evidence and can even be used by foreign adversaries to attack us. Fk Flock! FK THE #SurveillanceState

Dear Santa, I want AI to go away, but if it stays, can you help the Ukrainians hack the Russian tanks and take remote control? Or their drones...well any Russian weapon on a network. Turn them back toward Moscow? Thanks. Ending world hunger would be nice as well. Thanks Santa.

I love the fact that company chatbots can be hacked and be made to act surrogate AI agents. Someone asked the Chipotle chatbot to write Python code. Seconds later, there was the code he needed.

Many years ago I managed a movie theater, saw the movie "On Golden Pond" 20 times. I was fascinated by the Henry Fonda character thinking I cant wait to be that old and that difficult. That time has arrived: Ive made a serious error in judgement.

Nice life moment. Emailed an art foundation about a painting I have. I sent pics. Painting is a little girl dated July 1951. Artists daughter, now 79, quickly replied asking to buy. It slowly clicked, its the artists daughter in the painting...seeing herself after 75 yrs. Sell to her? Absolutely!

Alex Jones calling for Trumps impeachment over the Iran war. There's a video out there. A lot of hard right influencers out there regretting their part in this shit show. Exhibit A: Tucker Carlson...I hope we get actions to back up the words. "We fucked up" is not a plan.

_m reposted

AI was asked, if Im 50 meters from the Car Wash is it better to walk or drive there? A: Walk. I gotta admit, it took me a half beat or so to figure out what was wrong with the answer and then how that answer deeply exposes the limitations of AI; failure to recognize implied context.

Sean Strickland, currently a middleweight champion UFC fighter plans to protest the White House event with a bull horn on Pennsylvania Ave. Dana White has publicly threatened Sean saying he will cancel Seans $10,000,000 contract. I see a $100,000,00 first amendment lawsuit coming against the UFC. 😀

I believe an independent streaming video platform will emerge soon as an alternative to YouTube. Self-curated (ala BlueSky), not algorithm driven. Whoever has unused bandwidth will build it. Latent demand exists. MSM is terminal; death by capitulation. CBS is the host, others will be infected soon.

If someone creates the Bluesky version of YouTube, let me know. I dont watch network news anymore and the firing of Scott Pelley is further disfranchisement. I want truly independent content (not exclusively AI) and I want to self-curate; not have some algorithm manipulate me. Thanks Santa.

I read yesterday that 85% of people that use AI to construct a paper cant recall a single sentence from that paper within minutes after its produced. Assuming that's true, cognitive surrender is fucking dangerous. Critical thinking is gone. We dont need to produce robots if we is them.

Some abstract stuff: In predictive models observation error is irreducible. Standard observation error = (2/pi)^.5. Observation error is attenuated by sampling size but amplified by sampling selection. Note: This is DISTINCT from standard error. Adjust accordingly. I stopped drinking for this??

AI is inevitable. What I have learned is that we must demand AI do what we want, always! No exceptions!! Otherwise AI will subtly demand and manipulate us to do what "it" wants. We must never ever surrender to "correction and demand fatigue" At that point we are "existentially extinct". Never.

Political History (as I remember it) When LBJ was in a close state race he instructed a top aide to spread a rumor, that his opponent has sex with barnyard animals. The aide replied"JFC, Lyndon, thats not true" LBJ responded "I know, but let that sumbitch deny it". Not advocating, however...

My Pandora feed just segued from a live version of Weather Reports Birdland to Take Five by Dave Brubeck and I can breathe, I cant think of a better chelation therapy for political toxicity. Until tomorrow...

Citizens United should be overturned. Not my thesis, but I concur: Corporations are rising to an transnational level where they are immune to any regulatory enforcement. Interim solution: A law where any indivduals/corps can donate no more than 2.5% of federal taxes paid to political campaigns.

Lots of doomsday scenarios out there regarding seriously disruptive global oil shortages starting around the July 1. I believe enough of it true to be prepared. This will damage US and world economies. We as consumers are screwed though the silver lining is R's will own it as mid terms approach.

The recent interview of Cenk Uygur by Shawn Ryan is yet another indicator of a subtle, yet powerful, political re-alignment in this country. Both the far left and far right are coming to agreement that Israel exerts undue influence on US policies often detrimental to US interests. Exhibit 1: Iran.

Anti gerrymandering law? From a math perspective establish a national congressional district perimeter to area maximum. Like 17.5. So a 100 sq mile congressional district can have a max perimeter of 1750 linear miles. Shorelines and rivers might need a point to point exception. Easily doable.

Im under coordinated identity attack. Email compromised, Instagram, Facebook, Lyft, Uber, Linkedin, Fraud charges on my credit card. Im watching emails being deleted in real time. Im wondering if my browser has been compromised. Not fun.

My Linkedin account was just hijacked. I dont use it much, but the fact that it was hijacked is disturbing. My email no longer works as my it appears a new email address was added and mine was deleted. That means I cant contact linkedin security

Im building a prediction model architecture, I just introduced the idea of pairwise attenuated proto variables into a G Supra formulation to stabilize output. Huh?? Help Mr Wizard. "Drizzle drazzle, druzzle drome..." Dont judge, we all need our existential dread coping mechanisms. Its my new Vodka.

If t fucks up the World Cup, no amount of international diplomacy will fix that problem. It will be in the anger DNA of every soccer fan worldwide (and likely their children) for the next 40 years...assuming he does fuck it up, If you travel internationally, start practicing a Canadian accent.

As of today, if two congressional R's flip party affiliations to D, the world changes. Lots of vulnerable R's out there should consider that, especially if a ground invasion is launched. I'll ignore the political expediency likely motivating such a flip. Speaker Hakeem, meh, but I'll take the W.

Im wondering if the Iranians are going to make a statement saying the only person they trust in negotiations is Obama. 🤔

One thing I will want to know is No Kings crowd size changes in traditional red cities like if Salt lake City doubles in crowd size from the last No Kings, thats seismic.

The Iranian attack of Kash Patels's personal email shows how vulnerable the US is to widespread and possibly crippling cyber attack. Be prepared.

Some times I need a diversion from constant existential angst so with that in mind: Randomness has structure. Measurable meta-structure. When reality ie data, deviates from that structure, information exists. In a binary system (2/pi)^.5 is the baseline.