Soumaya Keynes

simonandschuster.comHow to Win a Trade WarAn irreverent and invaluable guide to our new era of economic competition, written by Financial Times columnist and podcaster Soumaya Keynes and Ch...

26 May

*** ANNOUNCEMENT *** How to Win a Trade War is finally on sale!! (UK pub day is Thursday, but I'm told people have already started receiving their copies...) Get yours here... US: www.simonandschuster.com/books/How-to... UK: www.panmacmillan.com/authors/soum...

Why don’t we rename LHR Terminal 2 LHR Terminal 1? and switch T3 to T2, T4 to T3 etc? Or just rename T5 T1? Or are we just going to live the rest of our lives with a numerical list of working Heathrow terminals that starts at 2?

giftarticle.ft.comAI and inflation: how worried should central bankers be?Relative price shifts can affect the overall price level

I feel like this was probably a discourse that happened maybe 10 years ago but I missed it (sorry)

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Julia Coronado

@jc-econ.bsky.social

Nice piece from @soumayakeynes.ft.com suggests the direct AI inflation impulse is “meaningful but not massive.” One channel not considered is the lack of consumer price sensitivity from the wealth effect. Instead of wage/price impulse we have S&P/price pressures giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

ft.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/68b04a9b-714e-4a5a-8dde-d9d7b8a65197?syn-25a6b1a6=1

On @Financialtimes.com I ask how AI is affecting inflation. For now, energy prices are a bigger deal. But an AI-driven relative price shock could still complicate life for central bankers, esp if it's happening in expectation of a productivity boom that never arrives... www.ft.com/content/68b0...

ft.comGuess these gilet prices and we’ll predict which bank you work atFully vested

something inverse to something here

FT Alphaville@alphaville.ft.com

www.ft.com/content/2588...

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Jason Furman

@jasonfurman.bsky.social

Fortunately, I'm not sure @soumayakeynes.ft.com and Chad P. Bown deliver on their title How to Win a Trade War. The book is excellent and while it's more balanced about the pros and cons of trade than I would be, it's hard to come away from it with any enthusiasm for launching a trade war.

aaaahhhhhhhh policyexchange.org.uk/publication/... h/t @igmansfield.bsky.social

Soumaya Keynes@soumayakeynes.ft.com

It is *wild* to me that in the humanities there are top universities are still doing take-home exams. Apparently it's a cost-saving thing. I wonder if employers know, or whether they could start requiring disclosure, or whether grads might start saying on their CVs that they had closed book tests...

The specific example I heard of was humanities @ Warwick, but there must be others!

In this week's column I wrote about one frontier of today's trade wars: the UK car market. With charts. The EU's share of UK imports has dropped quite a lot since the pandemic/Brexit. www.ft.com/content/cf56...

Trends look different depending on the type of vehicle - the hottest competition is for cars with batteries. And w/ hybrids you can see that recently the value of imports from China has risen while that from the EU has plateaued www.ft.com/content/cf56...

Side note: I hadn't appreciated just how much UK car production had fallen already... www.ft.com/content/cf56...

For now, China's success has happened alongside growing UK imports from the EU... www.ft.com/content/cf56...

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Pasi Vaaranmaa

@vaaranpa.um.fi

Available in book format as well. @trade--talks.bsky.social @soumayakeynes.ft.com

Pasi Vaaranmaa@vaaranpa.um.fi

How to win a Trade War - a great discussion w @chadpbown.com moderated by @nks.bsky.social at Jacques Delors Institute in #Paris.

soumayakeynes.substack.comWhy the AI labs want economistsMy first ever Substack post

**NEWS** I have started a substack, as a vehicle to tell you about my new FT columns and podcasts, as well as the odd song. You can sign up here: soumayakeynes.substack.com/p/why-the-ai...

How is AI changing the nature of economic research? And how should we think about the stuff being put out by the AI labs? New episode of The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes, feat. @AraKharazian.bsky.social (Ramp), @Peter-McCrory.bsky.social (Anthropic) and @JBurnMurdoch.ft.com pod.fo/e/67c394

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Chad P. Bown

@chadpbown.com

Replying to @chadpbown.com

3) Jenny Bates joined The Economics Show with @soumayakeynes.ft.com for an important conversation about critical policy choices facing the UK and why, given China/US/EU... Podcast: www.ft.com/content/f2f1... Transcript: www.ft.com/content/ede2... Jenny's paper: www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/pub...

Thinking about the end of the world? Check your biases. My FT column this week: www.ft.com/content/9d11...

@bencasselman.bsky.social

Eyyyyy How to Win a Trade War got shortlisted for the SABEW Best in Business Book Awards!! sabew.org/2026/09/shor...

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Ben Casselman

21 Sept

“I don’t sweep the floor with my uterus.” Absolutely love this conversation between @corinnelow.com and @soumayakeynes.ft.com about gender and time use in parenting. (Yes, they have spreadsheets!) podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

podcasts.apple.comCan you spreadsheet your way to equal parenting? With Corinne LowPodcast Episode · The Economics Show · September 18 · 27m

20 Sept

zoombinis* *haven‘t played a proper video game in at least two decades but zoombinis was so important to me I felt I had to share

This post is unavailable.

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Michael Clemens

@mclem.org

19 Sept

Great to see @soumayakeynes.ft.com and @chadpbown.com ‘s brilliant and timely book in the wild 📚

ft.comWill US debt burst the AI bubble? With Ruchir SharmaWhy America’s mounting debt could become the AI boom’s biggest threat

19 Sept

Immigrants must earn more to be net fiscal contributors in the UK vs elsewhere New piece by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com based on research by @usama-polani.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/832fb4d5-e...

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Tony Tassell

@tonytassell.bsky.social

15 Sept

Will US debt burst the AI bubble? very good, crisp podcast here with Ruchir Sharma and @chrisgiles.ft.com (standing in for @soumayakeynes.ft.com). Including a great section on why the 5% threshold on the 10-year US Treasury yield matters so much www.ft.com/content/ae62...

8 Sept

Incredible study, with detailed data analysis answering a question I am desperate to know the answer to about a large and important countr… …it’s about Norway isn’t it

8 Sept

*VERY* excited to say that I'll be speaking and performing at Kilkenomics this coming November, the one and only economics + comedy festival. Full schedule here: kilkenomics.com/2026-schedule/

7 Sept

Blown away by this amazing (and brilliantly written) review of How to Win a Trade War, from Emily Blanchard of the Tuck School of Business. Excerpts below, and they've made the whole thing open-access: doi.org/10.1017/S147...

4 Sept

As the Chinese invest in chipmaking capacity, are they simply copying the playbook deployed by the Japanese and Koreans years earlier? On The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes, Dan Kim (TechInsights) says this time is different Listen: pod.fo/e/5cf69a Transcript: www.ft.com/content/a467...

4 Sept

New episode of The Economics Show, in which I quiz Dan Kim of TechInsights on the causes and consequences of the intense shortage of memory chips. Listen: pod.fo/e/5cf69a Transcript: www.ft.com/content/a467...

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Chad P. Bown

@chadpbown.com

3 Sept

HOW TO WIN A TRADE WAR... Korea launch! In Seoul, an extraordinary week of events to kick off the Korean translation of my new book with the amazing @soumayakeynes.ft.com. Old friends, new friends - thanks for the INCREDIBLE reception!!! Order it here: product.kyobobook.co.kr/detail/S0002...

3 Sept

When is an economist not an economist? Do I count? My @FT column this week explores... www.ft.com/content/89f0...

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Rachel Rees

@rachel-rees.bsky.social

As honoured as I am to see that The Times has picked up my Chagos article practically *word for word*, including my hard-gotten quotes, I’d prefer some credit — or for everyone to read my original FT piece! free link to read the evidently enviable article below (cheaper than a Times sub!) 🌴

When planning this podcast, which I recorded with Torsten Slok immediately after Jackson Hole, I knew there was a bit of a risk. Would he say *nothing*? Luckily, as Torsten so clearly explained, it turned out okay... Listen: pod.fo/e/599703 Read the transcript: www.ft.com/content/44f9...

Interesting new paper by @joshua-goodman.com and Samuel Nitkin on private tutoring - it raises test scores, but because of differences in adoption it also raises inequality in test scores. Full paper here: www.nber.org/papers/w35671

Also chains >> non-chains "The standardized curricula, instructor training requirements, and quality oversight mechanisms embedded in franchise agreements may partly explain why chain centers produce measurable achievement gains while independent tutoring centers do not."

30 Aug

Delighted to have this very nice review from Alan Winters in The World Economy for my book "How to Win a Trade War" with @Chadpbown.com! ...and there is an audio version, though it's just read by me Full review here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

28 Aug

"A great holiday read"!

Andrew Sissons@acjsissons.bsky.social

Just finished How To Win a Trade War by @soumayakeynes.ft.com and Chad Bown - turns out it’s a great holiday read. It’s such a well balanced and pragmatic book, it’s fun, and there’s so much insight in there. Recommend!

Recommend reading this @NYTimes.com op-ed from @ChadpBown.com about who really wins from the Trump administration crushing Canada's car industry. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/26/o...

Soumaya Keynes reposted

Financial Times

@financialtimes.com

Opinion: The rush to collaborate with these tech companies comes with risks. Read the column by Soumaya Keynes (@soumayakeynes.ft.com) here: ft.trib.al/qMUXSj6

ft.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/84718e2b-13c9-4469-a1d6-52556c7f637f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

What's up with the economics profession? Recently I've been hearing a lot about senior profs dusting off their CVs and trying to get gigs with the AI labs, as well as more arms-length collaborations. Working with an AI lab is seen as very cool. 🧵 www.ft.com/content/8471...

ft.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/84718e2b-13c9-4469-a1d6-52556c7f637f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

The AI craze is still tiddly relative to the total economics profession and concentrated in elite hubs. For some economists elsewhere, there will be grumbles about unequal access to data -- and eyerolling about AI hype. Piece is here: www.ft.com/content/8471...

Thanks to @peter-mccrory.bsky.social, @bengolub.bsky.social and Ara Kharazian for speaking to me, and to everyone else who spoke to me on background. And if anyone reading this has further thoughts, please get in touch as this is a topic I'll be following.

ft.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/84718e2b-13c9-4469-a1d6-52556c7f637f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

The AI companies add friction to communications between researchers and journalists. Relative to academics working at a bog standard university dept there are more layers of control, more PR folks involved, and more NDAs. (No shade on any of the v responsive PRs I worked with.)

ft.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/84718e2b-13c9-4469-a1d6-52556c7f637f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

I've seen a lot of fuss about individual AI usage data, which the labs hold and in cases make public at an aggregated level. But probably more important is information on how organisations as a whole are deploying AI, which isn't made public. (Do they even have this data?)

ft.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/84718e2b-13c9-4469-a1d6-52556c7f637f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

ft.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/84718e2b-13c9-4469-a1d6-52556c7f637f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

While the AI labs hold prized data, they have some influence over the results that data is used to generate. They can condition access, eg to influence which questions are asked. Biases could creep in in subtle ways, even from researchers becoming chummy with AI lab employees.

ft.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/84718e2b-13c9-4469-a1d6-52556c7f637f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

There's lots more in the full piece here: www.ft.com/content/8471... Some extra thoughts...

ft.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/84718e2b-13c9-4469-a1d6-52556c7f637f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

But as the frontier of research shifts, can conflicts of interest be managed? Speaking to several of the economists involved, I heard optimism. Some told me the *whole point* of the collaborations was to publish, and that they wouldn't tolerate censorship. Reputations matter.