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SSRN’s mission is to rapidly share early-stage research and empower global scholarship to help shape a better future. You can submit your research to SSRN online at www.ssrn.com.

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SSRN is giving authors more control over how their work is shared. By the end of July, SSRN's submission process will include a range of licensing options, giving authors greater control over how their research is shared and reused. Read more: spkl.io/633267Jrx4 #SSRN

spkl.ioSSRN will now allow you to choose the licence that’s right for your work By the end of July authors submitting to SSRN via our Web site Submission experience will be able to choose exactly how their work may be shared and reused. …

This paper shows that a single dominant #PCA factor can emerge from the interaction of multiple nonlinear #economic forces. Suggests that commonly used factor models may conceal a richer underlying economic structure than they appear to capture. spkl.io/633217ksKc #QuantFinance

This paper uses blockchain data to study runs on cryptocurrency exchanges. The biggest withdrawals occur when events threaten custody of customer assets, with insolvencies triggering net outflows of about 17% of balances. spkl.io/633297ks8J #Crypto #Blockchain

SSRN is temporarily unavailable Some or all services are currently unavailable while this work is completed. We apologize for the inconvenience and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Please check back shortly. For updates, contact SSRN Support: spkl.io/633217kYBZ

This paper finds that #Bitcoin market information alone does not consistently improve #gold-price forecasts. However, measuring relative trading activity between Bitcoin and gold significantly improves prediction performance across multiple machine-learning models. spkl.io/633287kTMA

This paper argues that taxpayers may face a due-process problem when eligibility for the Section 30D clean-vehicle tax credit depends on a dealer filing that the taxpayer cannot control or cure. spkl.io/633227kTwE #TaxLaw

This paper challenges the idea that short-term #investor pressure is always harmful. Using a #mutualfund disclosure reform the study finds that greater institutional scrutiny is associated with strategic scope expansion, improved profitability, and higher firm value. spkl.io/633227kTsa

ESG is becoming part of executive pay, but mostly in the short term. New research finds growing use of ESG-linked compensation alongside significant gaps in long-term incentive design. spkl.io/633277kTEF #ExecutiveCompensation

This paper revisits whether technical stock-price patterns can generate profitable investment strategies. The study contributes to the longstanding debate over how much information is embedded in historical price movements. spkl.io/633247krC0 #Investing #QuantFinance

This paper finds that peer-to-peer insurance pools may underperform because low-risk participants contribute less than is socially optimal. The result is weaker risk sharing and lower welfare than could be achieved under coordinated allocation. spkl.io/633257krfJ #Insurance #FinTech

Trade credit isn't just delayed payment. New research shows it can transfer liquidity and risk between firms, acting as either insurance or contagion within supply chains. spkl.io/633297krIf #Finance

This paper argues that life-insurer markups on annuities are driven primarily by hedging costs, solvency risks, and regulatory capital requirements, rather than by adverse selection alone. spkl.io/633217krvZ #Insurance #Retirement

Machine learning is becoming a core tool in modern asset pricing. A new survey reviews how #ML and #LLMs are improving return prediction, factor discovery, and portfolio construction. spkl.io/633227k31K #QuantFinance

This paper on #Polymarket's 2024 U.S. election market finds that standard volume measures can substantially overstate #tradingactivity. Finds evidence of capital flowing to both sides of the market, consistent with differing beliefs rather than one-sided manipulation. spkl.io/633267kM7K

New research applies the Kelly criterion to 100 years of market data and finds that growth-optimal leverage can lead to extremely large drawdowns. The results highlight why many #investors may prefer a fractional-Kelly approach rather than maximizing leverage. spkl.io/633277kBmf

This paper finds that in #Bitcoin and #Ether options markets, rising prices can sometimes increase implied volatility, especially during strong uptrends. This contrasts with the traditional equity-market pattern where volatility usually falls as prices rise. spkl.io/633217kBjz

This paper provides one of the first comprehensive studies of Private Debt Real Estate (PDRE) funds. Finds positive risk-adjusted performance relative to public debt benchmarks, while results vary sharply across the credit cycle. spkl.io/633267kBp0 #PrivateCredit #RealEstate

More sustainability imagery isn't always better. New research suggests that excessive ESG-focused visuals can reduce credibility with expert sustainability raters. spkl.io/633207k6WM #ESG

This Georgetown Journal of Int'l Law article discusses how major powers are increasingly using coercive #economic tools—unilaterally & outside safeguards—rather than supporting liberal #trade & rule-based dispute resolution. Read: spkl.io/633207Xm8q Subscribe: spkl.io/633227Xm8s

This paper shows that a new user's first transaction and entry community provide valuable signals about future #engagement. Using data from nearly 198,000 #Venmo users, the study finds that community-level information significantly improves cold-start predictions. spkl.io/633227Xaea

This paper finds that month-end fixed-income index rebalancing creates predictable demand for duration and generates measurable price pressure in government #bond markets. Nearly half of average monthly returns are linked to these rebalancing effects. spkl.io/633297Xal5 #FixedIncome

New research finds that revealing traders' positions increases their influence on discussions and prices in prediction markets, but does not improve the quality of information reaching the market. spkl.io/633267Xavy #PredictionMarkets #Finance

This paper introduces an AI-driven system that discovers return predictors while committing to hypotheses before seeing returns.Shows that most AI-discovered return predictors disappear once subjected to rigorous scientific testing. spkl.io/633207Xa2A #AI #QuantFinance

Are there really just a handful of market risk factors? New research argues that once economic states are taken into account, priced risk may be effectively infinite-dimensional. spkl.io/633287XWuA #AssetPricing #QuantFinance

New research challenges the idea that MDL leadership is controlled by a cartel of repeat-player law firms. Instead, the study suggests that the bigger issues involve governance, #judicial delegation, and accountability in the selection of #litigation leaders. spkl.io/633277X5UT #Law

This paper finds that shareholder proposals gaining access to corporate ballots are associated with a 1.19% decline in firm value, with the effect concentrated in environmental and social proposals. spkl.io/633297XbeW #CorporateGovernance #ESG

This paper argues that the key limit on AI adoption is not what AI can do, but how costly it is to verify its work. Finds that less than half of AI-assisted work is readily delegable once verification costs are considered. spkl.io/633267Xbwi #AI #FutureOfWork

This paper finds that misinformation is more prevalent during shareholder activist campaigns and is associated with a higher likelihood of settlement between activists and target firms. spkl.io/633287XbTK #CorporateGovernance

This paper reviews how climate change is reshaping corporate finance, from investment and financing decisions to governance and strategy. Highlights emerging topics such as system-level investing, catalytic capital, and AI's role in climate finance. spkl.io/633247Xbz0 #ClimateFinance

This paper finds that LLMs can outperform many human financial decisions but often become overly conservative when users reveal anxiety, health concerns, or low risk tolerance. spkl.io/633237XwRS #AI #PersonalFinance

Not all banking vulnerabilities become crises. New research shows that systemic distress depends not only on network fragility but also on how shocks propagate through the global financial system. spkl.io/633217XGvB #Banking #SystemicRisk

This paper finds that AI data centers contributed to higher local electricity prices, but the impact was much larger for industrial users than for residential consumers. spkl.io/633237XGLc #AI #Energy

This paper proposes "conceptual sandboxes" where policymakers test and refine legal concepts before laws are enacted. The goal: identify problems in legal design before they become problems in implementation. spkl.io/633287XHip #Regulation #Policy

This paper finds that the effects of #automation on #jobs and wages depend on the technology's life cycle. Early and mature adoption phases can have very different #labormarket consequences, and those consequences vary across robots, ICT, and software technologies. spkl.io/633227XHmQ

New research solves a longstanding open problem in dynamic matching markets.n The authors show that a simple priority-based policy achieves the best possible performance guarantee when participants may leave while waiting. spkl.io/633277XHSh #OperationsResearch #Algorithms

This paper introduces the concept of "legal grafting" to explain why many common-law jurisdictions have adopted civil-law private foundations. The study argues that legal innovation often occurs through selective adaptation rather than wholesale #legal transplantation spkl.io/633237XDgN

This paper finds that inventory-control systems perform better when machine learning incorporates known business structure rather than relying solely on generic deep-learning models. spkl.io/633257XGZT #MachineLearning #SupplyChain

This paper finds that political rhetoric becomes more polarized before elections. Politicians increasingly emphasize distinguishing issues and use more extreme language as electoral competition intensifies. spkl.io/633277XGd3 #Politics #Polarization

This paper argues that California's long-running out-migration reflects the political capture of valuable location amenities through taxes and housing constraints, rather than a decline in the state's underlying attractiveness. spkl.io/633207XGo2 #Migration #TaxPolicy

This paper finds that low #propertytaxes can increase housing lock-in among older homeowners, reducing access for younger buyers. Higher property taxes may reallocate housing toward younger households by lowering prices and increasing holding costs. spkl.io/633227XDaq #Housing

This paper finds that scientists who express political views on social media are often seen as less credible than politically silent scientists, especially by ideologically opposed audiences. spkl.io/633267XDqr #ScienceCommunication

This paper shows that when hedging trades move market prices, the payoff being hedged can change as well. The results imply that option pricing depends not only on market conditions but also on the trader's own market impact. spkl.io/633287n40G #Options #QuantFinance