Steve Bowen

ICYMI: Last week released our Q3 2026 Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report. While direct catastrophe loss costs are below average YTD (>$242 billion economic / >$92 billion insured), which is actually typical during El Niño, the societal impacts have been considerable. www.ajg.com/gallagherre/...

Super Typhoon #Champi is now a 180 mph (Category 5) storm in the Western Pacific Ocean. This is the fourth global storm of 2026 to have 150+ knot (170+ mph) 1-minute avg sustained winds; the most since 2019 (4). Since 1980, only 2018, 2016, and 1997 had more such storms (5). 2015 also had 4.

Majestic autumn day for a long outdoor walk. #NorthBurbsofChicago

A USGS-registered magnitude-7.7 earthquake has struck southern Panama. While still very early, this is likely to be a very impactful event for the country. Panama City, despite being far from the epicenter, has reported notable shaking.

October 9 AM: The sun rises on an intensifying #Isaias as it accelerates towards an expected Florida panhandle landfall late tonight. I've said it for many years: "The Gulf is going to Gulf" when it comes to GoM hurricanes. Overperformance happens more often than not with continued warming waters.

#Isaias poised to bring several feet of coastal storm surge and the possibility of inland flooding. Here's an update to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) take-up map through September 30. Potential landfall counties w/ 10-25% take-up. Translation: A lot of water damage will be uninsured.

October 7 AM: The sun rises on a clearly organizing Isaias. It's starting to show "that look" as it feeds on extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Anticipate a period of quick intensification today and tomorrow as it heads towards the northern Gulf Coast. AL / MS / LA / FL -- Prepare now.

Oct 6 4pm CT: Tropical Depression Nine (Isaias) is in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC ramps this up to Category 2 (100 mph) prior to landfall in 3-4 days. Yes: October storms in the Gulf are normal. Yes: Many Gulf storms have overperformed in recent years as ocean waters grow warmer. TD9? Stay tuned.

What a spectacular two nights in Las Vegas this weekend to see Metallica's opening shows at The Sphere. Absolutely mindbending experience! Of the 66 Metallica shows I've seen, these two were particularly memorable... (Here's an opening clip of "One")

Quick stop to the Hoover Dam (Lake Mead + Boulder Basin) before Night 1 of Metallica at The Sphere. Breathtaking views and a true scientific marvel. Hard to mask the shock of the extremely low water levels. Major concern for the Colorado River system and the region's water / electrical supply.

Spoke at an event at Torrey Pines today in San Diego. Not being able to play a round on the south course afterward is brutal. What a gorgeous place; spectacular views of the Pacific!

A reprieve from hurricane activity in the Atlantic is obviously welcome. But a consequence is fewer people feeling the need to have flood insurance. Latest statistics from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) shows continued active policy declines; notably in key states such as FL, TX, LA.

When I walked out of Notre Dame Stadium yesterday, having watched Notre Dame put up 52 on the scoreboard, I'd never have imagined the Chicago Bears putting up 59 (!!!) 24 hours later.

Summer 2026 (Jun-Aug) has set the new record for warmest in the Continental US dating to the late 1800s; surpassing 1936. NOAA data confirms what consensus climate change scientific literature tells us: Yes, max highs are getting hotter. But MUCH warmer min lows are driving temperature trends.

Thru Sept 4: The Atlantic hurricane season has produced the least amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) to-date (4.4) since 1941 (0.0). ACE is a measure of individual storm or seasonal intensity / longevity of tropical cyclone activity. (FYI: The Pacific Ocean has produced ~360 ACE thus far.)

The compounding nature of extreme heat is accelerating the degradation of our aging infrastructure. This is yet another daily example of climate change impacts in real time.

September 2 PM: The suburbs of Toronto just took a significant hailswath in addition to gusty winds and heavy rainfall. A lot of exposed areas were affected and this is very likely going to be quite an expensive event.

At the inaugural NOAA Industry Partnerships Summit and, as always, @kellyhereid.bsky.social and @mcb-wxclimaterisk.bsky.social are putting on a masterclass in describing NOAA's critical relevance to how the private sector is able to assess catastrophe risk.

The human toll from the horrific flood disaster in Nepal and Tibet is enormous. A devastating tragedy. The economic damage cost will run into the billions (USD). For a country with a ~$46bn GDP, that is sizeable and will require international help to rebuild. www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/n...

For the seismology nerds out there: Interesting to note that today's M6.0 earthquake off the coast of Somalia was the 16th tremor of M6.0+ intensity in this part of the world in the past 100+ years.

Katrina (2005) -- Obvious. Andrew (1992) -- Changed the game entirely for building codes, insurance, and storm forecasting. Harvey (2017) -- Set the standard for what happens when a big storm drops prodigious rains in a major metro. Miami (1926) -- The ultimate "if it happened today" storm.

At least 44% of the US Lower 48 is in moderate or worse drought conditions (as of August 18). With CONUS wildfire activity already running well above the decadal average for acres burned (>7.4M in 2026 vs ~4.0M avg), many parts of the US remain highly vulnerable to fire risk if an ignition occurs.

Damage assessments continue in Hawaii following the passage of Hurricane Lala. Much of the damage on Hawaii (island) is flood-related. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) take-up rate on the island is less than 5%, which sadly means that a large portion of incurred damage will be uninsured.

Producer Price Index for construction materials and asphalt shingles / siding and coating materials continue reaching new heights. The cycle of why it matters: Catastrophe event → Greater replacement costs during recovery → Higher insurance claims costs → More price pressure on premium renewals

Very intense wind gusts, power outages, and subsequent damage reported all throughout the Chicago metro region from the derecho. Peak gust of 96 mph now reported in Will County. Winds topping 70-80 mph across a very heavily populated part of Illinois.

Reminder: The climatological peak months for US derecho occurrences are May / June / July. August is also a prime month given summer heat and "Ring of Fire" patterns that can establish. A derecho can occur in any month if the conditions are right (including December -- notably Iowa in 2021.)

Cookie Monster coming back to sing the 7th inning stretch at Wrigley Field again tonight is what we all needed. Legend.

While long anticipated, it is confirmed that 2025's Eaton Fire was ignited by "electrical arcing on an out-of-service transmission tower." Expect subrogation recoveries by insurance carriers from the California Wildfire Fund; which has $21 billion. FULL REPORT: file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/lac...

August 1 5:30 PM PT: Active fires burning uncomfortably close to the Spokane (WA) metro area. Evacuations are underway for some city residents. Extreme / Critical fire conditions in place across much of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana today.

Six years old. It was time for her to experience the Original NES. "Dad! Is this like Nintendo Switch? Where is Luigi? Is Jack Black in this game?" I've never felt older.

Significant wildfire situation across parts of France and Spain amid record-setting summer heat in Europe. Yes, humans are a leading igniter of wildfires. Yes, climate change has absolutely enhanced conditions that bring such rapid fire spread / extreme fire behavior. apnews.com/article/spai...