System Margin

PGE plans to invest PLN 210bn by 2035, including PLN 70bn in grids and infrastructure. Its existing assets and market position could give it an edge as Poland’s energy system transforms. H1 2026 recurring EBITDA rose to PLN 8.1bn. The key is turning that scale into lasting value. #PGE #Energy

ADNOC Gas | System Margin TR #65 #Energy #LNG Gas doesn’t invoice anyone by itself. 😉 ADNOC Gas is investing $13.2B in expansion, while Ruwais LNG has long-term contracts covering over 90% of planned output. Entry: AED 3.12 | 26 Oct 2026

Everyone is watching AI chips. I’m looking one layer deeper. Taiyo Yuden expects operating profit to jump 125% on 19.3% revenue growth. That’s the kind of operating leverage I want to investigate. Entry: ¥8,572 | Oct 26, 2026

Samsung Electro-Mechanics ($009150) Everyone hypes Nvidia & HBM, but AI chips are expensive silicon paperweights without the electronic backbone I’m shifting focus to the gritty supply chain where infrastructure is actually built FCBGA substrates are the main story #AIInfrastructure #Semiconductors

E.ON plans to spend €48B by 2030, with €40B going into grids. Sounds like a great business, right? But spending billions and actually making good money on them are two different things. I want to see what’s left after regulation, financing costs and all the headaches of building #SystemMargin

When we think about chips, we usually picture AI giants. I am looking a step lower at #FormFactor $FORM. They don't design processors; they provide the testing gear. With advanced packaging and HBM memory, production simply falls apart without their tools.

Caterpillar $CAT | TR #59 I’m looking beyond the yellow machines. Caterpillar made $20.5B in revenue in Q2 2026, up 24% YoY, with a 20.9% operating margin. #Caterpilar Strong numbers. But good results alone don’t prove a durable moat. 🧵

I’ve added ASM International ($ASMI) to my Track Record. It makes equipment used in chip manufacturing, with ALD technology at the core. Its edge isn’t just exposure to AI. It’s the ability to deposit ultra-thin material layers with extreme precision. That’s worth watching. 🧵

JL MAG Rare-Earth is growing fast, but growth alone doesn't prove a durable advantage I looked at its role in the rare-earth magnet supply chain, the numbers behind the expansion, and two things I don't want to ignore: customer and supplier concentration #RareEarths Full analysis on Substack 👇

Knorr-Bremse ($KBX) joins my Track Record as #56. Entry: €99.50, based on the October 16 close. They make braking systems for trains and trucks. Not the flashiest business, but safety-critical products, high barriers to entry and years of aftermarket revenue make this one worth a closer look.

Kept UPS & FedEx out of my Track Record 📉 They look massive on paper, but failed the core System Margin test: verifying control over the market bottleneck. Just being huge or hard to replicate doesn't mean you call the shots. Proof of control is missing here.

Why? Amazon launched Supply Chain Services & is officially the biggest US shipper 👑 UPS & FedEx have solid numbers, but no hard evidence they dictate terms anymore. My rule is simple: no proof of market control = no spot in my TR. Status: NOT YET PROVEN ❌

Vossloh AG joins my Track Record as company #54. Entry: 16.10.2026 Reference price: EUR 49.36 (16 Oct closing price) A German powerhouse and global leader in rail infrastructure. From rail fastening systems to advanced switch systems, they cover a lot of ground. A solid business. #SystemMargin

Nutrien $NTR | TR #53 Entry: 17.10.2026 Price: $71.26 | Close: 16.10.2026 In Q2 2026, net sales rose 4% to $10.81B, while potash sales grew 6% to $1.05B. Nutrien’s scale and role in the global food supply chain make it worth tracking. #Potash

CF Industries $CF | TR #52 Entry: 17.10.2026 Price: $120.85 | Close: 16.10.2026 Food demand continues to drive demand for nitrogen fertilizers. In H1 2026, CF Industries generated $4.21B in revenue and $2.18B in adjusted EBITDA. #CF #Fertilizers

Hitachi Energy India $POWERINDIA | TR #51 Entry: 16.10.2026 Price: INR 28,990 | Close: 16.10.2026 India needs more energy and is expanding its grid. In Q1 FY27, revenue rose 68.6% YoY and the order backlog reached a record INR 32,222 crore. #Electrification #Infrastructure

My Top 12 from the TR list: semiconductors, aerospace, defence, rare earths, copper and fertilisers. I focus on competitive advantages, growth potential and market opportunities. Passing the System Margin test is the starting point, not the final decision. Full analysis on Substack 👇

Kongsberg Gruppen $KOG | #50 in the official TR Entry: 16.10.2026 Price: NOK 302.30 | close: 15.10.2026 I picked Kongsberg for its air defence and missile systems exposure. Q2 2026 revenue rose 31% to NOK 10.39B. Can this growth deliver sustainable profitability?

MP Materials $MP | #49 in the official TR Entry: 15.10.2026 Reference price: $39.96 | close: 14.10.2026 I picked MP because it’s moving beyond mining into metals and magnets. It’s a bet on moving further downstream, not just selling raw materials. Let’s see how it plays out #REE

Lynas Rare Earths is company #48 in my Track Record. Entry: 14.10.2026 Reference price: A$11.57 (closing price on 14.10.2026) It is an Australian mining and processing company that is the world's largest producer of rare earths outside China. #Lynas

Copper is more than a price chart. Strikes, concentrate shortages and uneven inventories expose the market’s weak points. Who controls the key constraints, and who captures the rent? Part 1 of my copper analysis is out. Link below 👇

ASMPT #47 | HK$158.40 Price as of Oct 13, 2026 Entry date: Oct 14, 2026 ASMPT makes semiconductor assembly equipment. I’m interested in its TCB technology for bonding chips. As AI chips and HBM memory advance, this stage of production matters more. #ASMPT

What happens when you test a framework outside its intended environment? I put System Margin to the test in crypto, not to find winners, but to see whether it could maintain its discipline in unfamiliar territory. Zero new entries. Still a useful experiment. Read the full article below 👇