Alastair McKeever

Alastair McKeever

@tedlassoregen.bsky.social

My core interests are: family, LFC, Tar Heel sports, Golf, Whiskey. But mostly I'll probably post about this silly FPL game I enjoy.

510 followers202 following173 posts

Andoni Iraola has been my favorite manager in the Premier League since Jürgen. Speaks so well, magnetically likeable (even from PCs) and Bournemouth’s transformation under him was incredible. I’m so glad we have him. It’s going to hurt bad if it doesn’t work out, but I’m very hopeful it will. YNWA

Update: my "path less traveled" BB ended up being BB9 - lucked into my GW1 4.5 fwd having good xmins for a good fix, combined with a ~good fixture for both my GKs. EV on bench was ~13, didn't impact my transfers before or after, scored 14. Overall, happy with taking the opportunistic BB approach.

Alastair McKeever@tedlassoregen.bsky.social

It seems BB1 will be popular. Given the EV differences between any and all chip strategies in the first half look like they will be quite low, but there are (fairly remote) upside cases for later chip strategies, I think I will prefer to choose outcome polarization and take a path less traveled (🌍)

Most interesting intra-PL transfer of this summer has a lot of candidates: Will Eze (who is incredible) fit okay into arsenal's system? Kudus potential could be unlocked now he seems to be given a position within a structure Will Joao Pedro and Delap make Chelsea better than they were w/Jackson?

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Or Brentford could do Brentford things to soften Dango's weaknesses and accentuate his strengths, find creativity from other areas, and turn him into a >0.40 xG winger whose goal output more closely approximates those underlyings.

Given Brentford's track record, I lean that the latter is more likely than the former (and as an aside, I think the markets are way too low on Brentford's prospects this season) but as a non-partisan observer I'm very excited to watch it play out.

Most interesting intra-PL transfer of this summer has a lot of candidates: Will Eze (who is incredible) fit okay into arsenal's system? Kudus potential could be unlocked now he seems to be given a position within a structure Will Joao Pedro and Delap make Chelsea better than they were w/Jackson?

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It might be that Frank was critical, they don't have enough progressive passing with two black holes on that front on each wing and they become completely dysfunctional as an attacking unit. All of which would likely make this signing a disaster and relegate him to the bench, or relegate Brentford.

Most interesting intra-PL transfer of this summer has a lot of candidates: Will Eze (who is incredible) fit okay into arsenal's system? Kudus potential could be unlocked now he seems to be given a position within a structure Will Joao Pedro and Delap make Chelsea better than they were w/Jackson?

But the one I'm most excited by is Dango Ouattara to Brentford: Fascinating attacker Special skills: intelligent off the ball running,workrate, taking people on, high pressing, aerial ability, lots of high quality shots His flaws are: everything about his passing is bad! and (maybe) a -ve finisher

But Brentford have a track record of developing far worse 23 year old attackers (check out Mbeumo's bars aged 23) and have a guy who made a huge leap last season to look a lot like a slightly lesser version of Dango, who will likely play on the opposite side to him this season (Schade bars below).

Some big picture thoughts on #fpl 🧵: 1. The value of our free transfers to start the season is a bit lower than it's ever been before because a) defcon points decreases the impact that fixture difficulty has on expected points for a lot of viable picks (defenders and CMs).

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2. The value of these extra first half chips is also lower than we are used to. BB1 looks like a good strategy right now, but things will change as the season goes on which will inevitably either improve or worsen all the future GW BB opportunities.

It seems BB1 will be popular. Given the EV differences between any and all chip strategies in the first half look like they will be quite low, but there are (fairly remote) upside cases for later chip strategies, I think I will prefer to choose outcome polarization and take a path less traveled (🌍)

Some big picture thoughts on #fpl 🧵: 1. The value of our free transfers to start the season is a bit lower than it's ever been before because a) defcon points decreases the impact that fixture difficulty has on expected points for a lot of viable picks (defenders and CMs).

So I think that means the number of opportunities to grab more points by chasing fixture runs, and the average magnitude of the best ones that do still exist, has gone down; and b) we have 3 more FTs! (+4 AFCON FTs less 1FT lost to an extra FH week). More supply = lower price.

DGW25 including AVLLIV and ARSCHE (on a contingent basis) was a surprise, but this DGW32 announcement for CRYNEW is bigger. There's been a complete change in PL rescheduling policy: no preference between rescheduling in open midweeks vs. European midweeks and prioritization of notice for fans.

Fixture info that you have to react to quickly is my favorite bit of FPL. Had 3 LIV already and decided to just play AM on moyes and roll 2 FTs. But there are lots of other cool, well figured out strategies. And there will be loads more after the CC semi results next week. Good luck all

Bournemouth continue to cook and there's a new starter (🍡!) who warrants evaluating! So I figured I'd make a new (far too long) 🧵. Again, I'm not a Cherries fan (hope they have an off day on Sat), just a regular watcher and admirer of Iraola-ball and their players. So take this for what you will

Alastair McKeever@tedlassoregen.bsky.social

Despite this I think both of these guys are very viable FPL picks - any piece of this lovely Bournemouth attack seems like good value given their pricing. But the money saved going for Kluivert over Semenyo comes with more risk, as he is much more likely to get dropped (rotation possible for both)

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It's important to note though that Tavernier CAN operate centrally - 5 of his 13 starts this season have come at 10. If all of Tav, Evanilson, Dango, Kluivert and Semenyo are simultaneously fit then (imho) the minutes that Tavernier "steals" will come fairly equally out of both Kluivert and Dango.

Much more I could ramble on about re: my views on Bournemouth and their players (e.g. they have benefited from an evolution in PL reffing which is letting more stuff go imo), but I really enjoy watching them play, and I hope they keep it up (this weekend excepted) and make Europe next season. 🍒

Bournemouth continue to cook and there's a new starter (🍡!) who warrants evaluating! So I figured I'd make a new (far too long) 🧵. Again, I'm not a Cherries fan (hope they have an off day on Sat), just a regular watcher and admirer of Iraola-ball and their players. So take this for what you will

Alastair McKeever@tedlassoregen.bsky.social

Despite this I think both of these guys are very viable FPL picks - any piece of this lovely Bournemouth attack seems like good value given their pricing. But the money saved going for Kluivert over Semenyo comes with more risk, as he is much more likely to get dropped (rotation possible for both)

View full thread

Iraola has always liked Tavernier - he is a very good creative passer and the best set piece taker at the club. The below radar is the standard fbref radar for AMs/Wingers, which showcases more of what Tav does really well relative to Dango. He's not as ferocious a presser, but not bad either.

Dango's attacking production and the effectiveness if the press with him involved in recent weeks should have earned him more minutes though. He might well just keep a starting spot and move to the wing, or he could drop to the bench for effective relief of Evanilson (who never last 90).

Bournemouth continue to cook and there's a new starter (🍡!) who warrants evaluating! So I figured I'd make a new (far too long) 🧵. Again, I'm not a Cherries fan (hope they have an off day on Sat), just a regular watcher and admirer of Iraola-ball and their players. So take this for what you will

Alastair McKeever@tedlassoregen.bsky.social

Despite this I think both of these guys are very viable FPL picks - any piece of this lovely Bournemouth attack seems like good value given their pricing. But the money saved going for Kluivert over Semenyo comes with more risk, as he is much more likely to get dropped (rotation possible for both)

View full thread

This is slightly less important as a number 9, and he has really excelled in the 4 games (incl. FA cup) as the emergency backup for that position after Evanilson and Unal's injuries (Iraola has a great an eye for finding a solution). However, when Evanilson returns, what will happen to his minutes?

Evanilson is still the best starting option at 9 and will start once fit imo. Semenyo is nailed as the all-around attacker Iraola trusts the most, and Dango won't be used centrally further back. So his biggest competition for wing minutes will be Tavernier, who recently returned from injury.

Bournemouth continue to cook and there's a new starter (🍡!) who warrants evaluating! So I figured I'd make a new (far too long) 🧵. Again, I'm not a Cherries fan (hope they have an off day on Sat), just a regular watcher and admirer of Iraola-ball and their players. So take this for what you will

Alastair McKeever@tedlassoregen.bsky.social

Despite this I think both of these guys are very viable FPL picks - any piece of this lovely Bournemouth attack seems like good value given their pricing. But the money saved going for Kluivert over Semenyo comes with more risk, as he is much more likely to get dropped (rotation possible for both)

View full thread

2 important caveats - 24% of his mins and 44% of xG has come as a sub (which notoriously inflates per 90s), and his xAG flatters him as a creator. His xA is almost 50% lower and passing is a significant weakness of his, probably a key reason he's never nailed down a starting wing role under Iraola.

Bournemouth continue to cook and there's a new starter (🍡!) who warrants evaluating! So I figured I'd make a new (far too long) 🧵. Again, I'm not a Cherries fan (hope they have an off day on Sat), just a regular watcher and admirer of Iraola-ball and their players. So take this for what you will

Alastair McKeever@tedlassoregen.bsky.social

Despite this I think both of these guys are very viable FPL picks - any piece of this lovely Bournemouth attack seems like good value given their pricing. But the money saved going for Kluivert over Semenyo comes with more risk, as he is much more likely to get dropped (rotation possible for both)

Firstly, here's the Iraola attacker scorecard radar i created for kluivert/semenyo, with Dango added. The stats around the bottom aren't perfect stats to fully evaluate how good these players are OOP, but I do think they mirror what I've seen; Dango presses VERY well, which Iraola likes.

The AM chip is going to be very swingy and cause a lot of angst, but it's fun to analyze. After last week, FUL-NFO (GW25) will 100% be table bonus game; that boosts AM24. I think there's likely to be higher EV windows later in the season, but it's worth considering for those well set for it (<3 LIV)

FPL viz goat and former MD1 now sharing fixture permutations in a perfectly explained way. Only thing I could add is that there’s a teeny tiny chance of TGW36 or DGW37 (most likely for LIV and AVL) imo. Otherwise no notes 🔥

Jonny Currie 🚀@jonnyc.bsky.social

FPL Double and Blank Gameweeks Viz dump + logic explained 🧵

The BEST data we have yet had re: the AM chip (laid out in a beautiful set of visualizations to boot!). Some interesting takeaways from this to be had!

Rob T@robtfpl.com

I went back and calculated #FPL Assistant Manager points for every PL game over the last 8 seasons (and combined with pre-game market WDL odds) These are the top 100 AM scores for games played in GW24-38 between 2016-7 and 2023-24 👇 And a few quick observations below 🧵

I had previously been pretty tunnel visioned on the potential for odds swings in GW37/38 as being super valuable, but I now think I may have been too swayed by the CRYAVL example last season; with more data added this looks like an outlier. The best table bonus games may well come earlier.

Agonized on this one for a while, because I initially (pre-Evanilson news) wanted to roll, and then was sorely tempted by one of the Everton FWDs in prep for DGW24, but eventually went Evanilson to Raul (roll second FT). Hopefully this can be my last transfer for a few gameweeks.

The best early chip strategy discussion and lesson on how to value transfers under the new ruleset you will find imho.

Sertalp B. Çay@sertalpbilal.com

New #FPL Optimized Podcast episode ❤️‍🔥 www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF21... We have talked about Assistant Manager chip, fixture possibilities, and optimizing chip strategy with @trout-post.com and @jonnyc.bsky.social

GW19: Roll to 3FTs. 4 strong defenders this week, which eventually made me decide against Munoz (very much have fomo there) and decided to stay the course with Bruno. Benched the defender who I had very slight benching concerns about. GL all!

Alastair McKeever reposted

Here's my best guess at the Chelsea XI for this week. So many positions up in the air and it's impossible to know how much Maresca will rotate. He has hinted at it, but said himself that he didn't know how many changes would be made. Lineup and shape similar to the away games at Sou and Lei