Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)

Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)

@tedpavlic.bsky.social

ASU Assoc. Prof in SCAI and SOLS. Decision making and behavior in living and artificial autonomous systems. I ❤️ ants, bees, wasps, robots, and optimal foraging theory. mastodon: @tedpavlic@mas.to Twitter/X: @TedPavlic @TEDx: http://youtu.be/9GWXCRetOjk

2.6K followers4.8K following1.5K posts

New widget for exploring GLMM's or warm-starting #stats coding after quick prototyping: tpavlic.github.io/topic_visual... Import your own data or use sample data sets. Try different response families/random effects. Export to #Rstats code (+MATLAB/Python). Translate classic tests to GLMM.

tpavlic.github.ioGLMM Analyzer – generalized linear mixed models in the browserFit generalized linear models, and mixed models with one grouping factor, to a table in the browser: normal, binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, gamma, beta, and ordinal responses with interactions ...

And if you prefer something similar that focuses on more classical parametric and non-parametric tests of means (one group, two groups, and several groups -- t tests, ANOVA's, etc.), see this "Output Analyzer" I built for my sim course. tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.ioOutput Analyzer – analyze simulation outputAnalyze stochastic-simulation output in the browser: import replication output, form confidence intervals on replication means, compare two or more designs (Welch, paired, Bonferroni, ANOVA with Tukey...

Update: Latest version can export any analysis shown in the current view to code for #MATLAB, Core&Tidy #Rstats, and #Python. This goes beyond exporting graphs but actually provides code for doing the analyses (including checking for the conditions necessary to meet the assumptions of those tests).

Ted Pavlic (he/him/his)@tedpavlic.bsky.social

A new widget for my stochastic sim course that might be useful for more general #stats courses -- can act as a web-based replacement for basic JMP. Load data sets at top, do parametric and nonparametric one-sample, two-sample, and multi-comparisons/ANOVA. tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

Cool (or warm) Kilauea #volcano satellite imagery (interferometry). Inferred position of magma wedge are the yellow lines. The blue (red) regions is movement away from (toward) the satellite. Ground "crinkled" to make room for the dike wedging itself up through it around the yellow dashed lines. 🧪

Has anyone else's admin made the decision to get rid of office trash service? Seems to be a new pattern emerging. Creates a kind of "workday walk of shame" as people carry teabags and coffee pods all around a building looking for just one trashcan. My kingdom for a trashcan!

Cities as refuges for those who the rest of the nation cast out as their families failed to love them. Under that framing, cities may be a symptom of something that's wrong, but it's not really clear it's something that's wrong in the cities.

David Roberts@volts.wtf

Holy shit.

New 🧪 findings show Rosalind Franklin had an earlier X-ray crystallography photo revealing the helical structure of DNA, and her notes about THAT photo showed she recognized it was a helix (and even estimated turn length). Explains why later photograph didn't have notes (and Watson took sole credit)

Science Magazine@science.org

Exclusive: A new analysis refutes James Watson’s claim that he was the first to recognize the significance of the famed photograph 51. https://scim.ag/4rTKck8

A new widget for my stochastic sim course that might be useful for more general #stats courses -- can act as a web-based replacement for basic JMP. Load data sets at top, do parametric and nonparametric one-sample, two-sample, and multi-comparisons/ANOVA. tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.ioOutput Analyzer – analyze simulation outputAnalyze stochastic-simulation output in the browser: import replication output, form confidence intervals on replication means, compare two or more designs (Welch, paired, Bonferroni, ANOVA with Tukey...

Look at that massive and rapid rise in inflationary tilt! Likely under #Kilauea's vents right now is a long wedge of magma originally formed by lava being pushed up though a crack. That wedge is tearing the summit apart -- soon we may see a "wall of fire" and a new vent system!

Fun Fact – In Robert's Rules of Order, you do NOT need a motion to approve minutes at the start of a meeting. The chair just asks if there are corrections. If there are, there can be votes on the corrections. If there are not, the chair can declare them approved.

Are there any myths about volcanos that associate the processes within as gastrointestinal discomfort of the God's? All of the dissolved gas coming out, the grumbling earthquakes of pressurized ground, the different ways magma can be forced out as lava – It's basically a big gut!

New widget for my stochastic #simulation course that I hope will be useful for other #statistics and #probability courses. Gallery of common probability distributions with info on logical origins, parameters, and how to sample from them among other things. tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.ioDistribution Explorer — interactive explainerNineteen common input-modeling distributions, one per tab: live pdf or pmf and cdf plots against reference shapes, formulas and moments, when to choose each one over its neighbors, how they relate, an...

Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) reposted

"The whole “Oh no, our models went rogue” thing … When a bridge collapses, you don’t analyze whether the bridge was ethical or sentient or why it decided to collapse. You ask, who is the person who built this bridge to be so flimsy?" www.wired.com/story/one-of...

wired.comOne of AI’s Fiercest Critics Says All the Doom Talk Is ‘Meant to Distract Us’Timnit Gebru argues that AI companies are stoking fears of extinction to avoid discussing actual harms, like autonomous weapons.

Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) reposted

Another Monte Carlo methods explorer for my simulating stochastic systems course. Demos 6 applications of Monte Carlo methods for estimating output distributions from stochastic models (queueing, inventory, reliability, and more -- 3 dynamic + 3 static). tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.ioMonte Carlo Simulation Examples — interactive explainerSix classic Monte Carlo experiments, each a short simulation per replication: a queueing node with one or two servers, an order-up-to inventory policy, a bearing-replacement policy, a newsvendor, aid ...

Ted Pavlic (he/him/his) reposted

If anyone looking for a postdoc with fantastic genomics/bioinformatics skills + strong intellect + great energy, please let me know! Preferably West Coast or remote/hybrid options & the candidate is open to a short (1 year) or longer term appointment

In case anyone is interested, the engineering version of the #Tesla #Cybercab that they're using in testing *does* have a steering wheel that plugs in under a panel that would normally be covered. See image below from this one on a Tesla service center lot.

New widget for my stochastic sim class. This one has three tabs about pseudo random-number generation (LCG, CLCG, MRG) that transition into four tabs about the tournament-based AI #watermarking used in modern LLM's, like Claude and Gemini. Related topics! tpavlic.github.io/asu-simulati...

tpavlic.github.ioPseudorandom Number Explorer — interactive explainerInteractive explorer for pseudorandom number generation: step through LCGs, combined generators, and MRG32k3a, and test the streams for uniformity and independence. Four further tabs build up watermar...

OpenAI is cutting off access to its models from Cursor after the SpaceX acquisition of Cursor. As with Twitter, acquisition of Cursor by SpaceX will severely degrade its quality and user base. "Our decision on Cursor following its acquisition by SpaceX" openai.com/index/our-de...

openai.comOur decision on Cursor following its acquisition by SpaceXOur decision to wind down our contract providing OpenAI models to Cursor following its acquisition by SpaceX.

Lunar #eclipse Thursday night in #Arizona: - start: 7:33 p.m. - maximum point at 9:12 p.m. (96% of the moon will enter the Earth shadow) - ends at 10:51 p.m. "Arizona’s blood moon is coming this week. Here’s when to look" www.phoenixnewtimes.com/arts-culture...

phoenixnewtimes.comArizona’s blood moon is coming this week. Here’s when to lookA deep partial lunar eclipse will turn 96% of the moon reddish-orange. Here’s what time to see it.

Where do you put the AI-powered tutor bots that your university is likely putting pressure on you to implement for your course? Along with linking them to/near the assignments, I'm also trying putting them under the Instructional Staff Support Hours. Logical if they work, right?