The Cipher Brief

Today's Open Source Report: Ukraine, Russia, China, the Middle East, cyber threats, and the latest national security developments—distilled by The Cipher Brief's expert team. Read smarter. Stay ahead. www.thecipherbrief.com/report/globa...

America's adversaries aren't waiting for the next war. They believe they're already fighting one. China. Russia. Iran. Different tactics. One strategy: wear down U.S. power over time—below the threshold of open conflict. www.thecipherbrief.com/endless-warf...

The Cipher Brief's Global Intelligence Report for Wednesday, July 8, 2026 www.thecipherbrief.com/report/globa...

Colombia’s election marks a rightward shift, but not a settled mandate. David Fitzgerald examines the security, economic, and political challenges facing Abelardo de la Espriella. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/colombias-election-exposes-a-country-still-split?share_id=9702442

NATO arrives in Ankara facing its toughest security environment in decades. Can the alliance stay united as the threats multiply?

Normandy is more than history. Dave Pitts explains why the lessons of D-Day, from leadership and alliances to the human side of war, remain as relevant today as they were in 1944. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/reflections-from-normandy?share_id=9689876

It's been a busy weekend in Nat Sec News. Here's what's happened since Friday afternoon.

Iran cannot be trusted to enrich uranium. Ambassador Joseph DeTrani argues the next nuclear deal must begin with one non-negotiable principle: no domestic enrichment. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/dont-permit-iran-to-enrich-uranium?share_id=9665789

The next DNI’s challenge is building an Intelligence Community for 2045. Renee Novakoff explains how. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/dni-day-two-building-the-intelligence-community-for-2045?share_id=9655273

As negotiations to end the war drag on, Middle East and Energy Expert Norm Roule explains why missiles, mines, cyber operations may define the next phase of the crisis. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/what-iran-wants-and-how-it-can-still-fight?share_id=9649398

New intelligence shows Cuba has significantly upgraded its ability to monitor U.S. communications and military activity. The implications extend far beyond Havana. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/cubas-new-spy-array?share_id=9647387

President Trump says he stopped bombing Iran because the costs were becoming too high.Columnist Walter Pincus examines the costs, both obvious and hidden that could dictate the coming months. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/from-bombing-iran-to-negotiating-trump-explains-his-red-line?share_id=9647443

This wasn’t a peace deal. It may be something more important: a system for preventing escalation. Arvid Bell and Chip Usher explain. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/deal-should-not-have-happened?share_id=9647449

Matt Stern argues America’s cyber laws punish attackers after the damage is done—and leave defenders powerless when it matters most. Read more in The Cipher Brief. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/cyber-policy-failure-congress-refuses-to-address?share_id=9629710

Can the Intelligence Community evolve fast enough for the AI and space age? Former senior intelligence leaders Shelby Pierson and Renee Novakoff outline three critical decisions facing the next DNI—from bureaucracy and budgets to strategic competition with China, Russia, and Iran.

The problem is not that intelligence agencies fail to see threats. The problem is that leaders often fail to act on the warnings they receive. Read the full analysis at The Cipher Brief. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/why-correct-intelligence-often-fails?share_id=9618747

Russian influence operations didn’t begin in 2016—and they aren’t ending anytime soon. Read the full piece at The Cipher Brief. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/russia-escalate-its-attacks-democracies?share_id=9598307

The Pentagon’s innovation overhaul was billed as more than a reorganization. The real test is whether the new system can deliver before competitors gain further ground. Read the full analysis from Joey Gagnard in The Cipher Brief.

What if war no longer has a clear beginning or end? Part I of this series explores the concept of “Endless Warfare” and how Iran, Russia, and China are reshaping the character of modern conflict.

This Memorial Day, we remember the Americans who quietly volunteered to stand with Ukraine after Russia’s invasion — not for recognition, but because conscience demanded it. Some never came home. Their stories deserve to be told. 🇺🇸🇺🇦

Trump’s Beijing summit produced few clear deliverables - but it gave Xi Jinping something valuable: a global stage to project China as America’s equal. Two Cipher Brief experts assess what the summit revealed about U.S.-China competition, Taiwan, AI and Beijing’s growing confidence.

Iran doesn’t need to cripple the U.S. grid to create pressure. Small disruptions at scale can erode public confidence without crossing military red lines. Read more.

No major deals. No breakthrough on Iran. No movement on Ukraine. Yet Xi may have achieved what mattered most: Images of equality with a U.S. president, staged among 1,000-year-old trees inside Zhongnanhai. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/the-symbolism-behind-the-trump-xi-summit?share_id=9509891

In The Cipher Brief, Sean M. Wiswesser examines the threat of Sino-Russian opportunism, intelligence miscalculation, and the risk of parallel crises from the Baltics to Taiwan. Read the full analysis at The Cipher Brief. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/the-bear-and-the-dragon?share_id=9493399

The Pentagon has the money. The defense tech sector has the tools. But Joey Gagnard argues the real question is whether America’s procurement system can move fast enough to matter. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/a-bridge-too-small-why-49-billion-cant-fix-a-1-5-trillion-problem?share_id=9493432

The article examines the psychological dynamics between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping ahead of a summit that could reshape global politics.

The frontline of national security no longer stops at government systems. It now runs directly through corporate networks, cloud infrastructure, and supply chains. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/corporate-cybersecurity-is-the-new-frontline-of-national-security?share_id=9469248

Inside the Pentagon’s High-Stakes Nuclear Overhaul https://www.thecipherbrief.com/inside-the-pentagons-high-stakes-nuclear-overhaul?share_id=9461795

Latin America’s leftward shift is hitting economic and political limits. From Colombia to Venezuela, rising crime, inflation, and U.S. pressure are reshaping the hemisphere’s strategic landscape.

North Korea is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal - new enrichment sites, advanced ICBMs, & possible Russian tech support. Experts warn: Pyongyang is moving from deterrence to warfighting capability. Is the U.S. missing this threat?

Human vs. Machine: Operational Realities from Ukraine’s Frontline https://www.thecipherbrief.com/human-vs-machine-operational-realities-from-ukraines-frontline?share_id=9445259

Britain’s Antisemitism Crisis Is Now a National Security Threat https://www.thecipherbrief.com/britains-antisemitism-crisis-is-now-a-national-security-threat?share_id=9444531

Exclusive: Deep in Cartel Country: CIA Deaths Expose Fragile U.S.-Mexico Security Ties. As Washington escalates its war on cartels, intelligence ops are moving closer to the front lines - testing sovereignty, trust, & cooperation with Mexico.

From Ukraine to the Red Sea, wars are no longer defined by single decisive strikes—but by thousands of small, relentless attacks that wear down systems, budgets, and resolve. The U.S. is still adapting. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/pakistans-terror-landscape?share_id=9435980

North Korea isn’t just expanding its nuclear arsenal—it’s doing so with growing political cover from China and Russia. That combination is reshaping the strategic landscape in ways Washington can’t ignore. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/pyongyangs-bet?share_id=9426747

The U.S. mastered drones for counterterrorism. Now it’s struggling with the version that matters most: cheap, mass-produced systems designed to exhaust defenses and budgets. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/america-fighting-wrong-drone-war?share_id=9428342

From Caracas to Tehran, suspicious wagers made on the online betting site Polymarket are raising serious national security questions. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/dangerous-trade-of-state-secrets?share_id=9426751

Buried in the Pentagon’s FY2027 budget is a seismic shift: a $54.6B bet on autonomous warfare. The future of conflict may no longer be defined by platforms but by the software that controls them. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/pentagons-bet-on-autonomous-warfare?share_id=9418158

From ISIS-K to Hezbollah, 15 adversarial groups are converging on the same media playbook — built on speed, platform agility, and narrative control. Understanding one may now mean understanding them all. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/extremist-global-media-strategy?share_id=9408828

Pakistan is no longer dealing with a single conflict. War with Afghanistan, instability along the Iran border, and renewed tensions with India are converging into a three-front crisis with no clear exit. Read more.

Former FBI Cyber Deputy Director warns letting FISA 702 lapse would create gaps adversaries are ready to exploit. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/fbi-fisa-section-702?share_id=9391189

As missile threats shift over the North Pole, Greenland's location could make it central to U.S. defense. A look at why the Arctic is becoming a strategic frontier. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/greenland-golden-dome?share_id=9391154

Iran isn’t seeing Russia’s war as a failure - it’s seeing a roadmap. From drones to sanctions survival to internal repression, Tehran may be learning how to endure & win. That should worry Washington. Read more: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/iran-learning-from-russias-war?share_id=9382884

Former NSA cybersecurity director Rob Joyce argues Section 702 is indispensable to U.S. national security. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/case-for-reauthorizing-section-702?share_id=9371796

The U.S. entered its first real drone war - and paid the price. $5.6B spent in 2 days. 850+ Tomahawks in 5 weeks. All to stop drones costing ~$20K. Meanwhile, Ukraine, Russia & Iran are producing drones at scale.

The war in Iran isn’t just about Tehran — it’s disrupting China’s global strategy. From Belt & Road routes to military cooperation, the ripple effects could reshape great power competition. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/iran-china-great-power-contest?share_id=9364017

In a new Iron Triangle piece, Joey Gagnard argues the Pentagon’s drone ambitions are exposing dangerous weaknesses in America’s supply chain, manufacturing base, and long-term defense readiness. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/americas-drone-strategy-supply-chain?share_id=9357438

Drones have turned the surface into a kill zone. Steve Blank argues the U.S. is investing in shooting them down, but not in protecting what matters most. Time to go underground. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/drones-changing-warfare?share_id=9356952

Former senior CIA officer William Usher examines how the Iran war is triggering second- and third-order effects far beyond the Gulf. Read more. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/iran-war-reordering-the-world?share_id=9352531

U.S. intelligence had a warning before the first bomb fell: Iran’s regime was unlikely to collapse. Four weeks later, that assessment looks increasingly accurate. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/sobering-assessment-of-irans-resilience?share_id=9351673