brent 🌹🗽

brent 🌹🗽

@therealbrent.bsky.social

JFREJ, NYC DSA member. Jew for a Free Palestine. 🇵🇸 Padres and Washington Huskies fan. Owner of two dogs and two birds, do digital for an environmental organization, and loving life in the Big Apple, baby!

5.3K followers898 following20.8K posts

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Republicans are clearly not voting and would need one of the largest E-Day mobilizations in history to prevent a wave. This country always finds ways to disappoint but consider me extremely skeptical that a party speedrunning Bush 2.0 is going to defy gravity and pull that off.

Probably not enough to actually flip Florida given it’s basically Subtropical Missouri at this point but it bodes extremely well for the rest of the country. Republicans are straight up not voting!

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com

Florida early voting update: Early in-person turnout among Republicans has fallen off a cliff. At R+0.4, the total early vote in the state is about as blue as 2018, 5 points higher than this point in 2022, and 10 points higher than in 2024. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-early...

Centrists convinced themselves that only Republicans were Islamophobic and that post-9/11 hysteria didn’t impact them at all. Trump’s Muslim Ban and open Islamophobia gave them cover to hide behind for years because you can only be bigoted if you say or do those things!

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‪I say this from experience!‬ ‪I have always been afraid to fly and when I was a teen/young adult in post-9/11 America, I absolutely got nervous when I saw a vaguely Arab looking guy on a plane.‬ ‪That was horrible! And I spent a decade (and getting on meds) trying to change that.‬

‪We are witnessing an explosion of Islamophobia and even transphobia in the Democratic Party and those people like to hide behind Israel and fairness in sports or whatever to lie to themselves about what they truly feel ‬

Centrists convinced themselves that only Republicans were Islamophobic and that post-9/11 hysteria didn’t impact them at all. Trump’s Muslim Ban and open Islamophobia gave them cover to hide behind for years because you can only be bigoted if you say or do those things!

‪It’s not a crime and you are not evil for having subconscious biases. ‬ ‪What makes you a bad person is refusing to accept and work on that and continuing to double down on these very obvious biases while hiding behind all kinds of bullshit. ‬

We still have a week to go but Republican turnout is awful right now. They could be saved by a surge on E-Day but that would mean a huge change in voting behavior AND voters coming out in droves for the president with ~35% approval. Would be completely unprecedented.

Incredibly telling he says this after Brazil and Serbia’s anti-authoritarian victories and not when right-wing candidates have won around the world. The best proof yet that his “worldview” is just being reflexively against and annoyed by whatever people on social media like.

brent 🌹🗽@therealbrent.bsky.social

Yes well it does require things like “empathy” and possessing a basic understanding that all of our lives are interconnected

A lot of centrists would be much better off and happier if they just admitted that Arab guys on airplanes scare them and that trans people weird them out instead of pretending that it’s all just political disagreements

“The government shouldn’t be involved in this” is such an easy answer on both trans issues and abortion that appeals to many libertarians and right-wingers but no we need to call trans women “men” because highly-paid consultants said so

brent 🌹🗽 reposted

I'm going to start this thread on the presidential count in Brazil—so people who are interesting can follow along. With 3% of vote counted, Lula up 51.3 to 48.7 (that's a lead of 103K). Pattern in 2022 & in R1 was Lula down big at 1st, then closing gap, but that's shaken up by today's 2-hour delay.

I fully expect there to be plenty of Ossoff-Jackson voters so we obviously don’t know how the GA-Gov race is going to turn out but man this is looking like a turnout collapse for Republicans. Just AWFUL numbers for them.

Dj@djsoke.bsky.social

Accidentally assigned all of today's white 18-29 voters to the non-Atlanta category in the previous post lol

Need to slow my roll a bit and not get my expectations too high after doing the same shit in 2024 and ending up with egg all over my face but every indicator and data point is looking great for Dems and terrible for Republicans right now

‪Not sure if it’s a dumb analogy but feels like Democrats are ahead 14-0 in the 1st quarter.‬ ‪Obviously that can change in a hurry but if they win in a blowout it shouldn’t surprise anyone.‬

‪Literally all the fundamentals and every emerging data point are suggesting a political environment exceeding 2018 for Dems but 2024 ruined me so badly that I won’t truly believe it until I see it lmao ‬

I find it extraordinarily hard to envision a scenario where high turnout is happening and that’s *in favor* of the party overseeing economic disaster and a massively unpopular war. And if that is the case, then American is truly and forever cooked lmao

what is that Republican rural turnout omg

Dj@djsoke.bsky.social

Here's how our live tracker counties finished today Dallas' first meh day vs 2024 Travis held up best Rurals are ?

I know we shouldn’t overreact to early vote, but we are seeing indicator after indicator that Republicans just are not voting. Maybe they are taking their sweet time and waiting but probably not? And undecideds aren’t going with the party in power when everything sucks!

I will always be cautious after 2024 but let’s be real: New voters aren’t racing to the polls to vote for the party that got us into a horribly unpopular war on top of everything costing more and the vibes being rancid. A wave is happening, just a matter of a wave or tsunami.