reconron

On 24 Oct Ministry of Emergency Situations (MChS) Il-76TD CANDID RA-76841 flew from Moscow (ZIA) to Moscow (CKL). It departed on 25 Oct and flew to Benghazi LBY continuing on to Bamako MLI on 26 Oct. As it flew from the military base at (CKL) I am wondering about its ‘humanitarian’ cargo.

On 26 Oct SFS An-124 CONDOR RA-82035 was again tracked eastbound over BFA. It likely departed Bamako MLI. It flew a similar route on 24 Oct and the likely destination for both flights was Naimey NER.

On 25 Oct SFS An-124 CONDOR RA-82040 took off from Moscow (VKO) and is en route to Damascus SYR.

I thought at the time they may have delivered/taken out air defense systems.

After approximately three hours on the ground RA-82040 took off from Damascus and flew to Khmejmim Airbase with a counter-SAM ‘letdown.’

Thanks to @Eri1806 for the tip on this! On 25 Oct Meraj Airlines A321 EP-SSN IRAN08 flew from Tabriz IRN to Dubai UAE and after less than an hour took off and flew to Tehran. It departed after less than two hours again headed for the UAE.

Perhaps the first flight carried the team and the second spectators? However, there seems to be a problem as the second flight is orbiting over the Persian Gulf. Flight clearance problems for the second flight?

Situation resolved, the aircraft got to land; however, the first flight landed at the Dubai World Central International Airport and the second at the Dubai International Airport.

iranianuae.aeIran Football Federation Thanks UAE for Approving Tractor FC’s Direct Flight — ایرانیان اماراتHamed Momeni, acting secretary-general of the Iranian Football Federation, thanked the UAE Football Association for its cooperation and efforts to secure a landing permit for Tractor FC’s charter f...

This aircraft likely carried the Tractor FC for a match with al Ain. Evidently there was a hitch in securing a landing permit for the aircraft: iranianuae.ae/en/sports/fo...

On 25 Oct SFS An-124 CONDOR RA-82040 took off from Moscow (VKO) and is en route to Damascus SYR.

CONDOR lights to Damascus are not uncommon. RA-82040 flew there on 30 Mar, 02, 06, 10 Apr & 07 Sep. It was at K-Grad from 01-03 Sep but I do not know if that flight was connected to the 07 Sep flight to Damascus. RA-82037 flew there on 18 Jun.

On 24 Oct Il-76MD-90AE CANDID RA-78650 took off from Moscow (likely ZIA) and flew to Belaya Airbase. RA-78650 is an export version of the Il-76MD-90A (hence the 90AE) and was refitted for air-to-air (AAR) refueling at the Aviastar SP Factory at Ulyanovsk between Oct 2024 and Mar 2025.

In May it flew to Nagurskoe Airbase on Franz Josef Land with Il-114 RA-54116 for testing in Arctic conditions and was noted with the United Aircraft Corporation logo on its tail.

As the VKS only has one Il-78M-90A MIDAS tanker (RF-78741) this aircraft can be pressed into service as a tanker if needed and as it landed at a bomber base we could see some AAR in the next few days.

On 21 Oct SFS An-124 CONDOR RA-82035 departed Moscow (CKL) and after a stop at Khmejmim Airbase SYR continued on to Benghazi LBY on 22 Oct. On 23 Oct as RFF704 it landed at Bamako MLI departing later to the east still as RFF704.

Due to a CS/FCN change after leaving Benghazi and before arriving at Bamako, I believe it landed at another airport, and from its route to/from Bamako, I think it may have been Diori Hamani International Airport, Naimey NER.

On 22 Oct Gelix Airlines Il-76TD CANDID RA-76360 took off from Dubai UAE and appeared to land in eastern UKR. It did not; this is more spoofing. On 23 Oct it took off from Moscow (SVO) and is eastbound.

On 20 Oct VKS Il-76MD-90A CANDID RF-78658 flew to Accra GHA. It departed on 22 Oct and was tracked as far as BFA, later tracked climbing eastbound over BFA. I suspect the CANDID stopped at Ouagadougou BFA.

On 22 Oct Il-78M-90A MIDAS tanker RF-78741 took off from Ulyanovsk, flew to the east before returning to base and may have conducted air-to-air refueling operations.

Interesting flight by Air Koryo An-148 P-671. On 22 Oct it flew from Pyongyang to the airport at Samjiyon, returning to Pyongyang later. It is near to Mount Paektu the alleged birthplace of Kim Jong Il and a mythical location for the citizens of the PRK, kind of like the nativity for Christians.

Given the rumors and the Internet outages, this odd flight to Samjiyon becomes even more mysterious! If Kim Jong Un is dead, did the new ‘Dear Leader’ go to Mount Paektu to ‘get the blessing’ to be new leader?

If this was RUS or the Soviet Union, all we would have to do it turn on the TV and if Swan Lake was on, we would know someone died!

It is a nice myth; however, Kim Jong Il was born on 16 Feb 1941 at Voroshilov, Primorskij Kraj in the Soviet Union while his father was serving as a captain in the Soviet Army commanding a battalion of Korean exiles.

koreajoongangdaily.comNorth Korea’s websites go dark as Kim Jong-un death rumor fuels speculationA widespread network outage has taken state media, government portals and Air Koryo offline, but there has been no evidence yet of an external attack — nor of the North Korean leader's demise.

According to media reports, websites in the PRK has reportedly gone dark and there have been rumors of the death of Kim Jong Un: www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/north-...

A Russian Su-30 (FLANKER-H) crashed in the K-Grad region on 21 Oct. It crashed near a cemetery between the villages of Timofeevka and Zelenyj Bor. censor.net/en/news/4029...

censor.netcensor.net

The crash was likely near the green dot.

I am going to go out on a limb here and suggest engine fire and/or failure right after takeoff.

A Russian Su-30 (FLANKER-H) crashed in the K-Grad region on 21 Oct. It crashed near a cemetery between the villages of Timofeevka and Zelenyj Bor. censor.net/en/news/4029...

censor.netcensor.net

My analysis: The crash likely occurred just after the aircraft took off from runway 06 at the Chernyakhovsk Airbase (red dot). The villages of Timofeevka and Zelenyj Bor (yellow dots) are located to the east. The cemetery (blue dot) where the video was filmed was likely just north of Timofeevka.

Thank you!

David@puca.bsky.social

A less Twin Peaks update - spot the difference between vessel placement during the 21st of October 2025 test window and today. It does not mean a Burevestnik test is taking place - we cannot possibly know that from vessel placement alone - but it looks very, very similar.

On 21 Oct VKS An-148 RA-61729 flew from Moscow (CKL) likely to Rogachevo Airbase on Novaya Zemlya (yellow dot).

I thought that VKS Il-76MD-90A CANDID RF-78658 would be making another run to Bamako MLI; however, on 20 Oct it instead flew to Accra GHA.

adf-magazine.comGhana Works to Halt Russian War Recruitment - Africa Defense ForumGhana is spearheading an effort to stop Russia’s illegal recruitment of young people to fight in its war with Ukraine. Independent tracking agencies estimate 37 African countries have been affected by...

however, there may be a more sinister explanation. I wonder who/what will be on board the aircraft when it takes off? adf-magazine.com/2026/10/ghan...

Interesting that the article on Russian recruitment in GHA was published the day the aircraft arrived.

I thought that VKS Il-76MD-90A CANDID RF-78658 would be making another run to Bamako MLI; however, on 20 Oct it instead flew to Accra GHA.

modernghana.comRussia’s Expanding Footprint in GhanaThe opening of a Russian House in Ghana has not triggered mass protests or dramatic headlines, yet its implications are far from minor .

This flight could support Russia’s increasing influence in the country; www.modernghana.com/news/1488403...

vpk.nameRussia started exporting electricity by seaRussia and Indonesia have officially signed an agreement on the construction of a floating nuclear power plant. This is the world's first export project for the supply of electricity from floating nuc...

RUS is building a floating nuclear power station for IDN: vpk.name/en/1164973_r...

RUS has an operational floating nuclear power station, the AKADEMIK LOMONOSOV, which is moored at Pevek in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and provides power to the region. It was built in St P-Burg and has been operational since 2020.

On 20 Oct Il-96PU CAMBER Airborne Command Posts RA-96020 RSD182 & RA-96022 RSD112 and Tu-214PU Airborne Command Post RA-64531 RSD522 are returning from Dushanbe TJK after the SCO Prime Ministers’ meeting.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived on RA-96022.

After the flight to Bamako MLI on 19 Oct by Ministry of Emergency Situations (MChS) Il-76TD CANDID RA-76841, SFS An-124 CONDOR RA-82035 also flew to Bamako departing later. VKS Il-76MD-90A CANDID RF-78658 is currently at Benghazi LBY and may fly to Bamako Later today.

On 17 Oct SFS Il-96 CAMBER RA-96017 RSD 608 with Sergej Lavrov on board flew to Manama BHR for the ninth Joint Ministerial Meeting of Russia-GCC Strategic Dialogue.

On 19 Oct he flew to Tehran (IKA) IRN to meet with Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi before returning to Moscow.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10...

aljazeera.comRussia’s Lavrov discusses US war and regional security during Tehran visitGCC states have pressed Moscow to help halt Iranian attacks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

On 17 Oct SFS Il-96 CAMBER RA-96017 RSD 608 with Sergej Lavrov on board flew to Manama BHR for the ninth Joint Ministerial Meeting of Russia-GCC Strategic Dialogue.

mid.ru/en/foreign_p...

mid.rumid.ru

On 19 Oct Ministry of Emergency Situations (MChS) Il-76TD CANDID RA-76841 is again en route to Bamako MLI. It made trips there on 29 Sep & 04 Oct. MChS Il-76TD RA-76363 flew there on 02, 06 & 16 Sep and MChS Il-76TD RA-76362 on 10 & 16 Aug. That is eight (alleged) humanitarian flights since 10 Aug.

RUS likely hopes that its two-pronged approach of military support for the junta (hard fist approach) with its combined aviation group and the Afrikanskij Korpus base in Bamako and delivery of food (winning hearts and minds) will help strengthen its position as well as stabilize the country;

fronts.coIndependent Conflict, Defense & Security AnalysisIndependent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense, and security.

however, things are not going well. Here is a good assessment (at least according to me) of the situation in MLI from Fronts.co (@WarFrontsWeekly): www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce8T...

Massive airlift by Chinese AF Xi’an Y-20 continues on 15 Oct. This is the third day in a row for this activity.

Just after 0000Z more Chinese AF Xi’an Y-20 are up and moving east.

And they just keep coming!

On 14 Oct VKS An-148 RA-61734 flew from Moscow (CKL) to Plesetsk (Cosmodrome) returning to Moscow after approximately an hour on the ground, albeit with some pretty messed up tracking.