Tobias Gerstenberg

Tobias Gerstenberg

@tobigerstenberg.bsky.social

Tea drinking associate professor of cognitive psychology at Stanford. https://cicl.stanford.edu

3.5K followers705 following199 posts

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Side note: This project started with an email from Ricky in May 2021 who had just received his BSc in Cognitive Systems at UBC. It took over 5 years with lots of zoom sessions to complete it. Ricky and I still haven't met in person.

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People's decisions are well-explained by a simple decision model that uses a linear additive combination of the experimental and observational data. But these decisions don't correlate well with the predictions of the normative model.

While both novices and experts make incorrect inferences about the counterfactual types from the data (e.g. believing people benefit from acting when they don't), their decisions systematically follow these (incorrect) inferences.

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Balke & Pearl (1994) developed a normative model of how to do this. How do people's decisions compare? Not well! People are better than chance but far from optimal. They have difficulty inferring the counterfactual types from the data, relying on a simple linear additive heuristic instead.

People leave a lot of money on the table! Getting feedback doesn't improve performance, but engaging with the data more closely helps. Experts at Stanford (postdocs & students in statistics, economics, or data science) performed better than novices but still far from optimally.

Imagine a doctor πŸ‘©β€βš•οΈ who has data from an RCT and an observational study and needs to decide whether to administer a treatment to a patient. Or a manager πŸ‘©β€πŸ’Ό who has data from an A/B test and from how people behaved on their own, deciding whether to launch a new ad. How should they use the data?

One should use the data to infer whether someone will benefit from the treatment, be harmed by it, or be unaffected. These are counterfactual notions! Benefit = better because of action. By placing a value on each counterfactual type, one can compute the expected benefit of acting vs. not acting.

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Deciding when to jump in and help someoneβ€”and when to hold back and let them work through itβ€”is something humans navigate constantly. How do AI assistants handle this tradeoff? We introduce Int-Bench, a framework for evaluating interventions during problem-solving tasks.

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When you meet someone new, what kind of questions do you ask? It’s tempting to think that *really* getting to know people is just a matter of asking the right questions. Excited to share the next chapter in ongoing work on what makes a *deep question* with amazing collaborators...

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I wrote a book! It's called WHY WE ASK WHY, and it's about the human drive to explain, combining psychology, philosophy, and stories. It will be released on October 6, but it's currently available for pre-order from Barnes & Noble at 25% off with code PREORDER25.

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Thrilled to be sharing my latest work at #CogSci2026! Many of the spaces we move through, from kitchens to airports, were designed with specific uses in mind. How do people create such environments, and how do users figure out what they were designed for? πŸ“ƒ osf.io/preprints/ps...

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Looking forward to it!! Thank you for organizing πŸ™

Mariel Goddu@marielgoddu.bsky.social

The Unfolding World: Causal & Physical Cognition in Humans and Other Animals (April 24-25) We're bringing together comparative, computational, developmental, vision science & philosophy for a workshop on causal reasoning + intuitive physics! If you're in the Cambridge (UK) area, check it out! ⬇️

Some notes from the wonderful celebration of John Flavell's life and work at #CDS2026. "Age early and get it over with." (John on his looks not having changed in many years.) "Use the simplest word to get the idea across." "If I could only step into a child's mind even if just for a moment."

From Susan Gelman's talk (who met John thrice πŸ“–β˜ŽοΈπŸ‘¨β€πŸ«): 1) Don't be afraid to ask questions. 2) "Research is hard (and fun!)" 3) Appearances can be deceiving. From Alison Gopnik's comments: John showed us that it's possible to be a good man and a good scientist.

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πŸš€ Postdoc Alert! Are you passionate about social learning & cultural evolution? @dominikdeffner.bsky.social & I have a 3-year position with freedom to develop your research and work on cutting-edge multiplayer and immersive experiments. Apply by March 30! hmc-lab.com/SocialLearni... Pls share πŸ™

hmc-lab.comPostdoc position -- Social Learning and Cultural EvolutionPostdoc position -- Social Learning and Cultural Evolution posted on March 2, 2026 We are currently seeking a highly motivated individual...

Thank you Yoonseo Zoh (zohyos7.github.io) for sharing your work with us on "Intuitive Theories in Moral Cognition". Intuitive theories structure how people represent dilemmas, how they generalize to new contexts, and how they switch between representations based on resource-rational constraints.