Tom Calver

NEW: the Iran war may have cost households nearly £1,000 a year by 2029 – and wiped out any gains in living standards for this parliament! Why is Britain so bad at withstanding energy shocks? 1/2

Amid all the talk of freezing the price of groceries, I looked at what goes into the cost of a pint of milk. Two things jump out... 1/3

Two: when milk prices did increase, between 2020 and 2022, it was not because of soaring profits. The biggest contributors: farming costs, overheads, and, most significantly, labour! The idea that prices rise because of profiteering is for the birds 3/3

Amid all the talk of freezing the price of groceries, I looked at what goes into the cost of a pint of milk. Two things jump out... 1/3

Are resident doctors still underpaid? The BMA’s case for industrial action is undermined by the way the union uses data. 1/6 www.thetimes.com/article/895f...

Fourth: compared with several other benchmarks, resident doctors are not badly paid. Trainee docs in England are paid more than in Ireland and New Zealand. And when you include pension contributions, their total remuneration is more than other equivalent professions. 5/6

Are resident doctors still underpaid? The BMA’s case for industrial action is undermined by the way the union uses data. 1/6 www.thetimes.com/article/895f...

Second: the union still persists in using the retail prices index. Using RPI: pay has fallen 21%. Using CPI: pay has fallen 6%. Using CPIH: pay has fallen 4%. There are no sensible use cases for RPI. It overstates inflation. 3/6

Are resident doctors still underpaid? The BMA’s case for industrial action is undermined by the way the union uses data. 1/6 www.thetimes.com/article/895f...

There are two big problems with the triple lock One: it makes future spending impossible to predict. If we keep it, pension spending by 2050 could be a just a little higher than it is now. Or, if we have anything like recent volatility, it could be tens of billions higher. 1/5

The state pension is a benefit. You pay NI for the entitlement to access it, but the cash you get back does not come from your own contributions. Be thankful that it does not: the typical 60-year-old has paid in £134k in NI, but will get back £222k in SP payments. 4/5

There are two big problems with the triple lock One: it makes future spending impossible to predict. If we keep it, pension spending by 2050 could be a just a little higher than it is now. Or, if we have anything like recent volatility, it could be tens of billions higher. 1/5

Two: now it is enshrined, no politician will dare say whether the state pension is high *enough* The new state pension is a third of earnings, high by historic standards Compared to Europe, our provision is low. But just 12% are solely reliant on it, falling to 4% in 2063 2/5

Green support is rising under Zack Polanski. Who are its new voters? The party's new voter base is younger, student-y, more female, and less financially comfortable than their 2024 voters. They are the heirs of Corbynism: 39% of current supporters backed Labour in 2019 1/2

Will the rush to net zero save us from future energy price shocks? Since 2004, the UK has engaged in a risky experiment: generating less electricity. The bet is that enough wind will reverse that by 2030. But gas – overtaxed and neglected – will still matter www.thetimes.com/article/0227...

Having more renewables will mean we turn to gas less frequently. But it will still provide marginal support when there's no wind or sun. This is what experts think a typical winter week will look like in 2030. There will still be lots of times when gas sets the price. 3/4

Will the rush to net zero save us from future energy price shocks? Since 2004, the UK has engaged in a risky experiment: generating less electricity. The bet is that enough wind will reverse that by 2030. But gas – overtaxed and neglected – will still matter www.thetimes.com/article/0227...

This week's column: choose your university wisely Post-1992 providers have been rapidly expanding business, law and computing courses. Yet the returns for students 5 years after graduating from these courses have, to date, been woeful 1/4

This gap exists even when we partially adjust for A-level grades. Students with BBB at post-92 unis earn more than those with AAA at pre-92 institutions 2/4

This week's column: choose your university wisely Post-1992 providers have been rapidly expanding business, law and computing courses. Yet the returns for students 5 years after graduating from these courses have, to date, been woeful 1/4

We cannot know for certain whether students going to post-1992 institutions would be better off not going to uni at all until the DfE releases the full LEO salary database. But it is only fair to question why former polys are expending low-value courses at such a rapid pace 3/4

Here's the real reason the government keeps freezing the student loan threshold The part of the loan that's repaid is classed as an asset on Treasury spreadsheets. But when plan 2 student loans started to be repaid, the percentage received back was less than expected... 1/4

So the Treasury pulls a lever. Every time it looks like future graduates won't pay enough back, it freezes repayment thresholds and the rate at which higher interest kicks in. Had these risen with wages – as was intended – these thresholds would be £38k and £70k by 2028 3/4

Here's the real reason the government keeps freezing the student loan threshold The part of the loan that's repaid is classed as an asset on Treasury spreadsheets. But when plan 2 student loans started to be repaid, the percentage received back was less than expected... 1/4

What happens if Britain’s population starts shrinking - which could happen as soon as 2029? Really enjoyed recording this edition of @thetimes.com's story podcast podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...

Is the UK’s official child poverty measure about to be revised downwards? The survey used by the DWP to measure poverty misses an astonishing £43bn of benefits income a year! 1/4

Dodgy data aside, is an income-based measure of poverty still fit for purpose? According to DWP data, 315,000 children living in relative poverty - defined as earning 60% of average income, adjusting for household size - were in households with more than £10k in savings! 3/4

Is the UK’s official child poverty measure about to be revised downwards? The survey used by the DWP to measure poverty misses an astonishing £43bn of benefits income a year! 1/4

This week's column is about how we spend our most valuable asset of all: time Life has become less obviously strenuous. For women, unpaid work is being replaced with paid work. Men enage in more leisure than ever. Both sexes sleep more. Why, then, does life feel rushed? 1/3

One reason is that we're increasingly having to multitask. Time use surveys show nearly half of all young adults are on their phone when they say they are "relaxing" Another is that key activities have become less enjoyable. Work is less fun than it was 40 years ago! 2/3