Thomas Pope

jackshaw.substack.comCan — and should — mayors be allowed to offer tax rebates?debates over tax rebates are fiscal policy, but also the political differences that greater devolution will create — and what they mean for the relationship between Whitehall and strategic authorities

There's been an interesting debate about whether mayors could (and should) be able to provide rebates with assigned revenue. This from @jacktshaw.bsky.social is the best summary I've seen of the current legal position jackshaw.substack.com/p/can-and-sh... Some thoughts on the merits 🧵1/12

instituteforgovernment.org.ukWhat should be in the fiscal devolution roadmap? | Institute for GovernmentThe fiscal devolution roadmap will set out changes to how mayors raise and spend money.

My latest below previews the fiscal devo roadmap. This could be a radical change in how mayors operate, and will tell us a lot about the government's broader approach to devolution My blog lays out what the roadmap should do

Institute for Government@instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Tomorrow, alongside his budget, John Healey will unveil a new fiscal devolution roadmap. The roadmap will reveal how radical the Burnham government intends to be on devolution. Our chief economist @tompope.bsky.social sets out his key tests www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/fisc...

Thomas Pope reposted

Sam Macrory

@sammacrory.bsky.social

Tax, spending, energy bills & fiscal rules... what should John Healey do at the Budget? Here's the must-read @instituteforgovernment.org.uk verdict from @tompope.bsky.social @drbenpaxton.bsky.social @danhaile.bsky.social @rosahodgkin.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/john...

instituteforgovernment.org.ukHow John Healey should approach his budget headache | Institute for GovernmentIfG experts set out how the chancellor should approach a difficult budget.

Thomas Pope reposted

assets.publishing.service.gov.ukassets.publishing.service.gov.uk

It's brilliant to have more transparency on progress against efficiencies and savings, set out in this '2025-26 departmental efficiency and savings performance' doc. But, I think government could do more to enhance the credibility of these figures assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ad8c4...

Thomas Pope reposted

Stuart Hoddinott

@stuarthoddinott.bsky.social

NEW: Starmer's public service inheritance was bleak. His govt made some progress improving services. But also launched a messy set of reforms Burnham has set out a positive vision but has a mountain to climb to deliver all his promises 🧵 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Thomas Pope reposted

Jill Rutter

ft.trib.alA pre-Budget day guide to Britain’s bad taxesThis is not the end of a list of potential reforms. It is barely even a start

💯💯💯(you get the idea) this makes so much sense from @timharford.ft.com - though I fear I can confidently predict that the Chancellor will do none of this (one example.. we don't levy VAT on children's shoes or clothes -- at least right-sized ones -- how about just making that a cash benefit)?

Financial Times@financialtimes.com

A pre-Budget day guide to Britain’s bad taxes ft.trib.al/FemwONF | opinion

Thomas Pope reposted

instituteforgovernment.org.ukNo political party is acknowledging the UK’s fiscal reality | Institute for GovernmentParty conference season saw all political parties duck the big questions about the economy.

Party conference season saw all political parties duck the big questions about the economy. @tompope.bsky.social reviews the tax and spend promises made at the conferences – and is left underwhelmed by a failure to confront the UK’s fiscal reality www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/no-p...

Thomas Pope reposted

instituteforgovernment.org.ukPerformance Tracker 2026: Schools | Institute for GovernmentThe government must better measure success across its school priorities and set out a clear long-term vision for the structure of the school system.

EVENT | How can Andy Burnham deliver on Labour’s promise to improve public services? 📆 Wednesday 21 October, 12:30–13:30 Join us as our expert panel presents the key findings of the IfG’s annual Public Services Performance Tracker. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/andy-b...

Thomas Pope reposted

Amber Dellar

@amberdellar.bsky.social

NEW: Plans to reduce EHCPs look optimistic and Burnham's public service reforms still need a plan for schools In our first IfG Performance Tracker chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, we look at how the government is performing on its schools agenda [1/9]

instituteforgovernment.org.ukBurnham and Healey must avoid the budget mistakes of Starmer and Reeves | Institute for GovernmentThe chancellor should take difficult decisions at the budget rather than ducking tough choices.

This from @chrisgiles.ft.com is good and worth reading. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... We @instituteforgovernment.org.uk don’t agree now is time for a steady-as-she-goes budget www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn... 1/2

But strong agree on the need for a tax strategy www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/... Part of the reason we have called for action now is that we think a coherent long-term strategy for public spend would probably mean more public service spend than currently pencilled in 2/2

Thomas Pope reposted

instituteforgovernment.org.ukBurnham should follow triple lock reforms with more boldness on other fiscal problems | Institute for GovernmentThe PM is right to reform the pensions triple lock.

The prime minister is right to reform the pensions triple lock. But @tompope.bsky.social says Andy Burnham will need to be as bold at the budget if he is to fund new spending commitments www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

instituteforgovernment.org.ukBurnham should follow triple lock reforms with more boldness on other fiscal problems | Institute for GovernmentThe PM is right to reform the pensions triple lock.

My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk applauds Andy Burnham for tackling the absurdity of the triple lock. He will need to show more of the same boldness at the budget and beyond to properly fund his social care reform and other priorities www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

Thomas Pope reposted

Jill Rutter

The Treasury underestimated the impact of the triple lock was that they did not anticipate the seesaw between inflation and earnings. That is what has led to the big rise in spending and the pension growing well ahead of earnings. There are proposals around to ensure it grows with earnings.

committees.parliament.ukcommittees.parliament.uk

I am only now getting round to reading the Treasury Select Committee report on the OBR. It's a good report that quotes our @instituteforgovernment.org.uk evidence in several places A few thoughts: committees.parliament.uk/publications...

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Ultimately I agree with where the committee has landed in its recommendations: now is not the time to radically change the remit of the OBR. It has simply become the latest bogeyman to take the blame for the UK's difficult fiscal position and government's difficulties in dealing with it

instituteforgovernment.org.ukStrengthening the UK’s fiscal framework | Institute for GovernmentThe UK’s fiscal framework, including a flawed set of rules, incentivises bad policy decisions shaped by short-termism and fictional spending plans.

As we've recommended, the government should take the steps necessary to reduce focus on fiscal rule specifics by setting out clearer objectives, explaining how rules flow from those, + retaining enough headroom so small OBR judgments aren't decisive www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

committees.parliament.ukcommittees.parliament.uk

The report gives a good summary of the conflicting views on the OBR: it holds an influential position, its judgments are sometimes seen to be dictating policy, but its judgments only carry weight because of the fiscal rules and broader fiscal choices government has made

Thomas Pope reposted

instituteforgovernment.org.ukDesigning better incapacity benefits | Institute for GovernmentPersonalising benefits and support is key to helping disabled people into work.

NEW IfG report out today on how government should approach reforming health and disability benefits The big takeaway: the system needs to better match people’s needs to the right support - through assessment reform, political leadership and more... www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

instituteforgov.substack.comOn No.10 North and the Manchester policy ecosystemTom Pope, the IfG’s Manchester correspondent, is optimistic about the future of UK politics’ self-styled second city

22 Sept

My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk is a reflection on what No.10 North and devo might mean for policy eco-systems outside London (and specifically in Manchester). Reflections based on my 4 years living in Manchester working for a think tank instituteforgov.substack.com/p/on-no10-no...

Thomas Pope reposted

Burnham and Healey have finally acknowledged the scale of the fiscal challenge. Now they need a budget that meets that challenge. It won't be easy, but the timid alternative is worse. My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk . www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

Thomas Pope reposted

22 Sept

If the PM and chancellor are (finally) alive to the challenges facing them, then they must deliver a budget that meets them head on. This means presenting a coherent strategy for fiscal policy for the rest of this parliament and beyond www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

Thomas Pope reposted

Burnham and Healey must avoid the budget mistakes of Starmer and Reeves A precarious fiscal inheritance is not a surprise. The chancellor should take difficult decisions at the budget rather than ducking tough choices. New from @tompope.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...

Thomas Pope reposted

LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCE 2026 | How can Labour build an affordable welfare system that supports sick and disabled people? Join us in Liverpool on Monday 28 September at 12:00 with @meghillier.bsky.social, Alan Milburn, @drbenpaxton.bsky.social, @katesummers.bsky.social and @tompope.bsky.social

Thomas Pope reposted

arguably.ukWhy Burnham needs a ‘DOGE on tax’Labour should reset an unfair and inefficient system

Interesting piece from @dan-goss.bsky.social for @demos-uk.bsky.social on the need for a DOGE for tax .... www.arguably.uk/p/why-burnha...

Thomas Pope reposted

11 Sept

How can the PM make his devolution agenda succeed? 📺🎧 Watch or listen as @lukeraikes.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social @drhannahwhite.bsky.social discuss Andy Burnham's plans to lead the “biggest rebalancing of power” www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/andy-b...

Thomas Pope reposted

instituteforgovernment.org.ukRachel Reeves should allow local tourist taxes | Institute for GovernmentIf mayors use the ‘right to request’ to call for tourist taxes, then the government should say yes.

10 Sept

Mayors in England are set to get powers to impose tourist taxes. Last year @tompope.bsky.social and @jillongovt.bsky.social argued that Angela Rayner was right to call for mayors to levy tourist taxes, and the Treasury is guilty of control freakery www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...

instituteforgovernment.org.ukHow John Healey should approach tax in his first budget | Institute for GovernmentThe 2026 UK budget is fast approaching.

7 Sept

New from me and @jillongovt.bsky.social for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk on how Healey should approach tax in his crucial Autumn budget (a subject he was quiet on in his speech today) Key point: set out a strategy and embrace reform. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

7 Sept

It's not too late to sign up for this event tomorrow lunch. In person in Manchester if you're there (or online). How Burnham can make his devolution agenda succeed? With @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @lukeraikes.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social

Institute for Government@instituteforgovernment.org.uk

EVENT | Andy Burnham, Manchester and No.10 North: How can the PM make his devolution agenda succeed? 📅 Tuesday 8 Sept, 12:30 Join @tompope.bsky.social @lukeraikes.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @drhannahwhite.bsky.social in Manchester www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/andy-b...

Thomas Pope reposted

4 Sept

Thomas Pope reposted

instituteforgovernment.org.ukFive ways departments can help deliver Andy Burnham’s procurement agenda | Institute for GovernmentThe government has asked departments to show how they can support its new procurement reforms.

5 Aug

Healey and Haigh have asked ministers how they will use procurement as a "strategic lever to deliver innovation and growth in every postcode" (as per @lucyfisher.ft.com). New comment from me on some of the answers departments should give www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/andy...

Thomas Pope reposted

Jill Rutter

5 Aug

Just looking through @instituteforgovernment.org.uk #MInistersReflect interview with John Healey and instructive that this is what he picks as his big achievement in govt www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/defaul...

In practice, I suspect few mayors would try to rebate even if they could. Most see economic potential that could be unlocked through delivering joined-up projects across the economic competencies they have. And regional govs tend to focus more long-term too, which helps with investment 11/12

But it still points towards priorities for making this tier of government more settled and effective: 1. Better understanding of what tiers of govt do, more public engagement. 2. Effective local accountability and scrutiny 3. Clarity on the role of mayors in public services 12/12

Another key weakness in our mayoral system right now is local accountability, and even an understanding by the public of what mayors do. Could there be a high risk, again in the short term, that the public see their mayoral rebate but blame central gov for crumbling infrastructure? 9/12

This doesn't mean mayors shouldn't be able torebate necessarily. But I think they are reasons to be cautious. We think it's right that central govt ties its hands through rules to stop is slashing capital for the sugar rush of short-term current spend or tax breaks. Should mayors too? 10/12

We know that the benefits of econ. development spend and capital in particular are long-term, and so they are quite easy to cut opportunistically. And it might take some time for voters to notice. This is why we have fiscal rules that distinguish current and capital spend 7/12

It is much easier, at least in the short-term, to choose to cut capital without anyone noticing than to cut service provision. So I do think this makes it more plausible for some mayors to gain in the short-term from tax cuts 8/12

Lots of countries allow some variance of tax rates locally (normally both increases and decreases), and on the whole, they are at least as likely to increases taxes to pay for services rather than cut taxes. So is there a reason to worry about allowing that freedom in England? 5/12

One difference between mayors and regional govt in other countries is what they spend money on. Most mayoral spending is on economic development, and lots is capital investment. In other countries, the bulk of spend would be core public services... See e.g. here for GM integrated settlement 6/12

But we should be wary of tax competition - places lowering tax to make their area more attractive. This is inefficient - we want the tax system to be neutral and not distort decisions, including location. Location decisions should be based on fundamentals - people, infrastructure etc. 3/12

So when people say that a benefit of devolution is places competing, I think on tax they're just wrong. Tax competition is a bad thing. That said, the international evidence suggests the theoretical 'race to the bottom' does not tend to happen... 4/12

In general, the argument that mayors should be able to make decisions they think will be best for their citizens - and face accountability at the ballot box - is a strong one. If you are committed to the devolution principle you need strong reasons not to permit this kind of policy 2/12

instituteforgovernment.org.ukAndy Burnham’s devolution announcement is a strong start on his priority agenda | Institute for GovernmentChanges on tax, new powers and institutions show Burnham means business.

31 July

And here is my piece for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk elaborating a bit on these initial reflections www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/andy...

Thomas Pope@tompope.bsky.social

Some thoughts on the government's devo announcement today: Overall, this is a great start on the govt's flagship agenda 1/

gov.ukRewiring the State – Cabinet Statement (HTML)

Thomas Pope reposted

Stuart Hoddinott

@stuarthoddinott.bsky.social

31 July

This is a genuinely exciting announcement about Burnham's intention for public service reform There are some potentially massive changes to the way that services are funded and operate A few things that jumped out at me 👇 www.gov.uk/government/p...

gov.ukRewiring the State – Cabinet Statement (HTML)

Thomas Pope reposted