Torsten Bell

All aboard! On Friday 6 November, I'll be taking one of my regular advice surgeries on the road - visiting five communities across Swansea in one day. 📍 Sketty 📍 Townhill 📍 Penderry 📍 Mynyddbach 📍 Morriston 📩 To book an appointment, email: torsten.bell.mp@parliament.uk.

What does Kemi Bandenoch really have in common with Thatcher? An economic plan that sells out Britain’s tomorrow to offer a sugar rush today torstenbell.substack.com/p/kemis-big-...

torstenbell.substack.comKemi's Big Idea? Unfunded Tax CutsWhy the political economy of modern Conservatism is based on selling out Britain's tomorrow.

What is Kemi Badenoch’s new big idea? Exactly the same as the Conservatives’ old big idea: unfunded tax cuts. It’s the lack of imagination as much as the fiscal incontinence that stands out torstenbell.substack.com/p/kemis-big-...

Selling out Britain’s future goes back to Thatcher. Had we invested oil/gas revenues we’d have a fund worth £1 trillion now. Selling off assets at less than they were worth (think council houses/utilities) + spending not investing the proceeds trashed the UK’s balance sheet

torstenbell.substack.comKemi's Big Idea? Unfunded Tax CutsWhy the political economy of modern Conservatism is based on selling out Britain's tomorrow.

The political economy of modern conservatism since Thatcher is to offer unfunded giveaways today, while leaving Britain worse off tomorrow. On this basis at least Kemi Badenoch can call herself a real Conservative torstenbell.substack.com/p/kemis-big-...

torstenbell.substack.comKemi's Big Idea? Unfunded Tax CutsWhy the political economy of modern Conservatism is based on selling out Britain's tomorrow.

The last Conservative govt promised huge tax cuts - the result was deep austerity the consequences of which we are still living with. The same cannot be said for the tax cuts - the same Tory govt reversed them

Conservatism has changed. It used to be a movement about protecting our collective past from the inevitably short-termist present, but has morphed into one that thinks the secret sauce of politics is to offer a sugar rush today at the price of selling out Britain’s tomorrow

torstenbell.substack.comKemi's Big Idea? Unfunded Tax CutsWhy the political economy of modern Conservatism is based on selling out Britain's tomorrow.

The Tories will claim their plans are funded but… so did Liz Truss. Woolly savings plans (including things the govt is already doing) won’t pay for very concrete tax cuts. Plus you can’t claim to be serious on savings while opposing our plans to adjust the Triple Lock

What is likely to happen if you promise £30bn+ tax cuts at a time of high debt & rising debt interest? You trash the public finances. Which is exactly what history says will happen when parties of the right do this - think of both Reagan and George W Bush sending deficits surging

torstenbell.substack.comKemi's Big Idea? Unfunded Tax CutsWhy the political economy of modern Conservatism is based on selling out Britain's tomorrow.

What is £30bn+ approaching the same scale as? The cost of the tax cuts promised by Liz Truss’ 2022 mini-Budget: £39 billion in 2025/26. This is a lettuce wilting level of financial incontinence.

These are overwhelmingly tax cuts for the wealthiest - 40%, or around £4bn, of the IHT proposal could go to the richest 5% (with estates worth £1.75m or more).

torstenbell.substack.comKemi's Big Idea? Unfunded Tax CutsWhy the political economy of modern Conservatism is based on selling out Britain's tomorrow.

People haven’t clocked how big the shopping list the Conservatives have built up in just two years in opposition - adding up to over £30bn a year

Sixty years ago, 116 children and 28 adults died when a spoil tip collapsed onto Aberfan. My grandpa was amongst those who drove out to help, but for too many it was too late. The PM has visited to honour the community and lives taken too soon. They are not forgotten.

Headlines of labour market stats reinforce resilience of UK economy this year: - employment rate ⬆️ by 0.2% to 75.3% - amongst the highest on record - unemployment rate down⬇️ 0.1% - inactivity ⬇️ 0.1% in the latest quarter (and a full 1% since 2024 election)

ons.gov.ukEmployment in the UK - Office for National StatisticsEstimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for the UK.

Here’s the release: www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...

Torsten Bell reposted

Ben Wealthy

@benwealthy.bsky.social

Interesting reflections on growth and wellbeing - "I agree there are strong arguments for focusing policy on our ultimate objectives of human happiness or wellbeing." Good to meet Torsten Bell with APPG on Wellbeing Economics members - Peter Lamb MP, Lord Gus O'Donnell, Lord Richard Layard.

Torsten Bell@torstenbell.bsky.social

Whose GDP is it anyway? This week’s substack is out torstenbell.substack.com/p/life-the-u...

torstenforswansea.substack.comSeptember in SwanseaTorsten’s monthly update about his work standing up for people and businesses in Swanesa West.

September is always a busy month – when the kids go back to school and MPs return to Parliament after the summer recess (no jokes about who is better behaved please). Read my latest monthly update on how I've been standing up for people in Swansea. torstenforswansea.substack.com/p/september-...

Sun-drenched start to the day in Liverpool for the Pensions UK annual conference. Lovely to see lots of friendly faces and to discuss what is a pivotal moment for pensions - the next year will lay the ground work for the pensions system that will take us into the middle of this century

What next? Today I have confirmed the Pensions Commission will deliver their final recommendations to address the challenges above in February and the Government will respond swiftly in the spring.

torstenbell.substack.comPensions UK Conference SlidesToday started in sun-drenched Liverpool for the Pensions UK annual conference.

Here’s the full slide pack for the small group who are 1) very interested in pensions 2) weren’t in Liverpool torstenbell.substack.com/p/pensions-u...

Low earners don’t all live in low income households - indeed over half of those earning less than £10k live in households in the top half of the income distribution

Low earners who are low income are usually receiving Universal Credit. What people often forget is that this means for each £1 saved into a pension, you get 55p back via UC. It pays to save.

An adequate pension system isn’t just about how much is saved into it, its about making sure you get a pension out at the other end (not just a savings pot) and the boring bits people never talk about = governance that puts savers first and quality customer service

Sometimes people argue that lower earners shouldn’t be saving into a pension. We must balance the benefits of pension saving with the real cost of living pressures, but these arguments ignore two crucial things…

…but the average amount saved has fallen and some groups aren’t saving at all. The biggest worry? The self-employed, who have been forgotten when it comes to designing our pension system

We also have to make sure our pension system is focused on what matters most to savers: the returns on their savings. Remember investment returns not initial savings drive the vast majority of your pension pot. Our value for money reforms will put those returns up in lights

Crucially pensioner poverty will fall under these plans - and it means we don’t have to repeat the Conservative approach of fast accelerating State Pension age rises that have a particular large impact on those on lower incomes

Turning to private pensions, a record number of private sector workers are now saving into a pension. That is the triumph of the last 15 years…

…and second adequate private pensions. If we do nothing, those retiring in 2050 will have 8% lower private pension income than those retiring today

On the State Pension, by adjusting the Triple Lock we will be able to look people in the eye and guarantee that a State Pension, which rises every year, will be there for them - and that they won’t have to wait into their 70s to receive it

First up the problem: our pensions system has a trust deficit. Two many people think they aren’t on track for a comfortable retirement and 30% think the State Pension won’t last

To address the pensions trust deficit we need to address the twin challenges facing us with pension reforms that deliver, first a sustainable State Pension…

Honoured to listen to the Lewis Merthyr Band play so powerfully in Parliament last night, as we prepare to commemorate 60 years since Aberfan next week. The disaster took 114 lives and left its mark on far more, including my grandpa who - like many others - drove out to help.

The Prime Minister will be visiting Aberfan next week to pay his respects to the strength of the community and honour the memory of those lost. My thanks go out to @geraldjoneslabour.bsky.social for arranging the band's performance, as well as to the many talented members of the group.

torstenbell.substack.comGrowth Up and Debt DownThe IMF’s verdict on Britain’s economic outlook

Despite real headwinds from the conflict in Iran, the UK economy has performed far more strongly this year than almost anyone expected – including the IMF. Here's my analysis of the two most important takeaways from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook. torstenbell.substack.com/p/growth-up-...

None of this is a case for complacency: I want growth stronger still, and global conflicts will affect prices and finances of all kinds. But the IMF is right to urge people to update their sometimes lazy priors on the UK economy.

torstenbell.substack.comSubscribe to Charting the CourseTorsten Bell helps you keep your bearings on what’s really driving the politics and economy of modern Britain. Click to read Charting the Course, by Torsten Bell, a Substack publication with thousands...

Charting the Course is my short and sharp newsletter about the trends shaping modern Britain, the choices ahead, and the thinking we’re doing in Government. Subscribe to get it straight to your inbox: torstenbell.substack.com/subscribe

torstenbell.substack.comGrowth Up and Debt DownThe IMF’s verdict on Britain’s economic outlook

Second headline: someone at the IMF has been reading my newsletter bc they’ve caught up with the strength of the UK’s fiscal consolidation. IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva says “the UK is actually one country where action to reduce debt and deficit has been taken decisively”.

No, that’s not a vague promise for the future. We’re delivering the fastest fiscal consolidation in the G7 it's happening now. The IMF forecasts the smallest G7 deficit by the end of the decade and urges France and the US to follow suit.

torstenbell.substack.comGrowth Up and Debt DownThe IMF’s verdict on Britain’s economic outlook

First: growth. In April the IMF said the UK would be the worst affected major economy from the Iran conflict, forecasting 0.8% growth in 2026. But the UK has since grown 1.2% in the first half of the year alone, joint fastest in the G7.

So the IMF has revised UP its 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.3%, joint second fastest in the G7, alongside Germany. The Iran conflict’s impact is painfully real, pushing up inflation and rate expectations, but British firms and workers have been impressively resilient.

New IMF forecasts tell you 2 things about UK economy. Firstly, the British economy has proved resilient in face of the Iran conflict: IMF have UK growth as joint second fastest in G7 this year (forget forecasts, in hard data we’ve seen the fastest growth in G7 so far this year)

Second, something way too often missed by commentators: the UK is doing more than anyone else in G7 to strengthen our public finances. We are delivering the fastest fiscal consolidation in the G7 and forecast to have the smallest deficit in 2031

torstenbell.substack.comFiscal Fact (and Fiction)Under the Tories, the UK borrowed more than the G7 average in every one of their 14 years. This year, the UK will borrow less. Here's how we're putting the UK's fiscal house in order.

For more on the UK’s not well enough understood fiscal trajectory, here’s a recent blog: torstenbell.substack.com/p/fiscal-fac...

Heading back to Westminster on Monday mornings is all the easier after a brilliant weekend. I'm out door knocking every week with the Swansea West Labour team - great to speak to residents of Uplands about what's going on in the neighbourhood, well caffeinated via Sloth coffee.

Saturday swim

Tories totally unfunded tax cut for the wealthiest latest: they’ve hugely underestimated the cost of their policy and therefore the borrowing splurge their plans would cause. This is absolutely mad approach to economic policy making - totally giving up on fiscal credibility

Dan Neidle@danneidle.bsky.social

Kemi Badenoch wants to exempt the family home from inheritance tax. But that creates a perverse incentive for elderly people to *upsize* to save IHT. That could double the cost of the policy, and push £100bn+ from savings into housing. A 🧵 on bad tax cuts.