Tracey Payne

Mirror News was discussing the new Dai Li-an favorability poll, noting that among respondents in Taipei the differences are more stark: Puma Shen with 56.1% approval and Chiang Wan-an with 39.7% approval. Chiang Wan-an is the Taipei incumbent mayor...

news.ltn.com.tw內幕》共軍官媒盯上「洋流」！官員提醒：北京「相當擔心」台灣選情 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報「洋流」在九合一大選發揮外溢效應，中共官媒環球時報今引述「島內網友」評論，直指綠營操作民調與地下賭盤操縱選舉。國安官員分析，中國介選規模持續擴大，連解放軍系統都加入，可見北京對台灣選舉情勢「有相當的擔心」，深怕台灣的民意走向與中共中央不同。針對台灣媒體報導雙北市長選情翻轉，地下賭盤因看好民進黨候選人沈伯洋、蘇巧慧調整盤勢，環球時報引述網友評論，批評綠營造謠影響選舉，並讓地下賭盤配合演出，企圖藉此帶...

Taiwan election tidbits: National security officials say they're seeing indications China is getting concerned about the "ocean current" movement and worried that public opinion in Taiwan may be changing. /1 news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...

The tactic is usually the use of misleading information that is spread through third parties, then repeated by Chinese state media as if it originated in Taiwan. This can make the claims appear more credible to their Chinese (or global) audiences while also they get to lambast democracy. /3

news.ltn.com.tw共媒不買單蔡康永未挺台獨陸委會：兩國互不隸屬 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報知名主持人蔡康永在台北市長蔣萬安競選總部成立前一天，在微博發文表示「我沒有支持過台獨」，同時向合作方及曾經支持他的粉絲致歉。不過，中共官媒仍不買單，強烈批判「發大長篇不如寫一句我是中國人」。陸委會副主委沈有忠今天受訪表示，各方立場我們予以尊重，但本來就沒有台獨選項。中華民國是客觀事實存在，政府、領土、人民及主權等國家要素，都是非常齊備的，跟中華人民共和國互不隸屬。蔡康永因10月4日現身民進黨台北市長候選人沈伯洋競選總部成立大會，手持加油棒揮舞響應「洋流」，連日遭到中共官媒及官方粉專帳號發文圍剿，中國國台辦更批評，不許一邊在中國賺取利益，一邊做勾連台獨「兩面人」。

Chinese state media also seemed very unimpressed with Kevin Tsai's Weibo apology, saying it was too long and said nothing. /end news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...

The Chinese state media Global Times recently cited online commenters (lol) and alleged that the pan-green camp is manipulating polls and underground betting markets to influence the election outcomes. Pretty common tactic by Chinese state media actually... /2

storm.mg幕後》蔣萬安會變賴清德？台北市長寶座不穩　議長席次也岌岌可危 | 戴祺修 | VIP2026年地方選舉進入最後一個月關鍵衝刺期，在5月份時，國民黨一度雄心壯志要拿下高雄市，甚至連屏東縣都預期有機會拚逆轉，不料不到半年，選舉畫風大變。國民黨藍白合在竹北市破局，連帶影響北部各縣市選情，民進黨突起「洋流」，國民黨與台北市長蔣萬安陣營未能及時察覺，洋流幾乎衝垮蔣萬安領先優勢，TVBS在10月8日發布台北市長民調，蔣萬安支持度49%，領先沈伯洋的41......

Taiwan election tidbits: Storm Media article on Chiang Wan-an & the Taipei race from KMT perspective. The situation has changed to where even the KMT is now worrying about losing the Taipei City Council Speaker seat, something no-one foresaw months ago. /1 www.storm.mg/article/1117...

The KMT fear the election might turn out a situation where Chiang wins over Puma Shen but somehow the KMT lose the city council, leading to a similar situation like President Lai where he's stuck with a large opposition. /5

My own personal thoughts: It's hard for me to see the KMT somehow losing the city council in votes but Chiang wins the mayorship? Really weird focus. If the Taipei City council flips to the DPP in an election then it's hard for me to see Puma Shen not winning the mayorship as well. /end

Some KMT city councilors are now entirely avoiding interviews or talk shows to avoid offending blue voters by mentioning the "ocean currents". Other KMT councilors have been instructed to add Chiang Wan-an's achievements to their campaign posters to better inform the public. /3

The KMT are so worried about the City council that all the KMT legislators have been mobilized to assist councilors in their respective districts to give them a boost. 羅智強, 徐巧芯, 賴士葆, 李彥秀, and 王鴻薇 are all acting as campaign proxies for Chiang. /4

Currently the DPP nominated only 26 seats directly, and you need 31 to win a majority of the city council. However there are enough pro-DPP independents whom if they all win it's somewhat possible for the city council to flip. /2

Taipei election 2026: DPP mayoral candidate Puma Shen discusses in an interview how early on in the race he mystified by President Lai's confidence in him, especially in the first two months of the race where polls didn't move no matter what Shen did.

Shen said he was told by Lai that he's the captain of the Taipei team and Taiwan team. Lai also tells Shen to get the city councilors to stand together with him. The president's plan envisioned Shen leading the entire DPP slate across Taiwan during the election.

Really bold strategy by Lai to propose back in May considering Puma Shen had never run in a district election before, much less run as mayor of Taipei of all places.

Puma said he wondered whether he could actually pull it off at first but Lai's attitude was exactly the same as on day one of the candidacy announcement. He told Shen he was capable of running and becoming mayor of Taipei after taking into account his abilities.

Taiwan election 2026: Puma Shen's motorcade rally in Keelung this evening has drawn impressive crowds again, in his joint appearance with DPP mayoral candidate Tung Tzu-wei. I love Taiwan's campaign motorcades. Also nice touch with the GPS tracking the motorcade and drone view.

Taiwan election tidbits: At the big Keelung rally, very politically savvy of DPP mayoral candidate Puma Shen to mention his wife used to live in Keelung, he talked about her commute between Taipei and Keelung and the crowd was really into it. Love the giant cat in the harbor behind them.

udn.com韓國瑜：95％媒體都在攻擊蔣萬安全部都在「捧一個人」 | 2026九合一選舉台北市長蔣萬安今在敦化國中舉辦競選總部成立大會。立法院長韓國瑜出席致詞，95％媒體網路集中火力攻擊蔣萬安、全部都在捧一個人，「打在任何人身上，都會讓天使變成魔鬼。」更問賴清德總統，當年和前總統蔡英文競選時，遭網軍攻擊，更應該發揮良心，「將來哪個候選人出來，就跟緬甸詐騙園區用電擊棒電一樣，把反對黨候選人電得哇哇叫，這不是民主。」

Taiwan election tidbits: What's the KMT strategy for Taipei? Well on TVBS the hosts say the blue strategy now is to circle the wagons, pack an area to show strength for Chiang (but don't do it in a street to avoid comparisons with Shen's own 10/4 rally) and rally your own base.

Tracey Payne@traceypayneasi.bsky.social

Taiwan election races thread (Oct 26): Mayor Chiang Wan-an held his big KMT HQ rally today. The three mystery guests for the big Chiang Wan-an rally was Cheng Li-wun, Huang Kuo-chang, and..... Kuan Chung-ming (former NTU president). Okay then. /1 udn.com/vote2026/sto...

The strategy makes sense since conventionally the view has always been Taipei is blue leaning. Rally the base? Win. But this has been a weird election, and if there's some kind of wave like the pan-greens are hoping for the traditional rules might or not apply.

news.ltn.com.tw稱「沒小孩可憐」蘇清泉臉書致歉周春米：極端歧視要更鄭重道歉 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報國民黨屏東縣長候選人蘇清泉昨天表示「縣長沒有小孩，可憐，不知道養孩子及教育小孩的辛苦」，引爆民眾怒火後，透過臉書發文致歉。對此，屏東縣長周春米今天北上出席「台北市長候選人沈伯洋女力後援會」成立，受訪回應，蘇清泉身為縣長候選人，居然就女性不能生養小孩，他認為是可憐，「這是非常極端歧視的語言！」必須要跟女性、社會道歉。周春米指出，當然生養小孩很辛苦也不簡單，但是女性的價值不是只在於生養小孩，縣長候選人...

KMT candidate for Pingtung County magistrate is apologizes for his remark about his opponent not having children so she "doesn't know the hardships" of raising them. /8 news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...

news.ltn.com.tw基隆市選舉候選人號次抽籤明天登場 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報原訂於上週五（23日）登場的2026年九合一選舉候選人號次抽籤，受到「薔琵颱風」逼近影響，基隆市停班停課，候選人號次抽籤延期至明天（27日）上午進行。基隆市長候選人、基隆市議員候選人號次抽籤，均在基隆市選舉委員會舉行；至於275位基隆市里長候選人號次抽籤將在7區的區公所進行。基隆市長候選人共有國民黨現任市長謝國樑、民進黨基隆市議長童子瑋、無黨籍的魏造文；基隆市議員部分共有60人登記，但是由於8連霸...

Looks like every county tomorrow is holding the candidate number drawings. /end news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...

news.ltn.com.tw昨澄清「未挺台獨」今現身蔣萬安競總！網心疼蔡康永：像犯罪出庭 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報知名主持人蔡康永日前出席民進黨台北市長候選人沈伯洋競總成立大會引發風波，昨（25）日發文澄清「從未支持台獨」後，今（26）日下午依約現身台北市長蔣萬安競選總部成立大會。他在台北市文化局長蔡詩萍陪同下快步進場，面對媒體提問全程未發一語，全程亦未與蔣萬安有進一步公開互動，畫面曝光後引發社群熱烈討論。台北市長蔣萬安今日下午於敦化國中盛大舉辦競選總部成立大會。先前允諾到場觀摩的蔡康永，於下午約3時由蔡詩萍...

Kevin Tsai shows up at Chiang Wan-an's rally shortly after putting out a statement on Weibo that he doesn't support Taiwan independence though doesn't say much at the rally itself. Leaves the impression he was forced to do so. /6 news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...

news.ltn.com.tw到台東力挺陳瑩選縣長蔡英文讚她具備遠見與執行力 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報民進黨台東縣長候選人陳瑩今天下午在台東市享溫馨國際廳舉辦百工百業後援會授證大會，現場人氣沸騰，卸任後人氣不墜的前總統蔡英文親自南下，以競選總部主任委員身分助講，展現對台東選情的高度重視，並全力推薦陳瑩為帶領台東迎向新局的最佳領導人。蔡英文在致詞時表示自己一路看著陳瑩的認真與實力，從兩人2005年一同進入立法院起，陳瑩便展現出色的問政能力。正因如此，當陳瑩投入台東縣長選戰時，她義不容辭接下重任，期盼...

Former president Tsai Ing-wen flies to Tatung to go campaign for Chen Ying, DPP candidate for Taitung magistrate. /7 news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...

Legislature Speaker Han Kuo-yu claims "95% of the media" is attacking Chiang Wan-an and only promoting one person. Han running through his 2020 beats again. /4 udn.com/vote2026/sto...

news.ltn.com.tw怕搶票？蔣萬安競總成立大會不見白營小雞羅智強藏玄機：拭目以待 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報選戰倒數33天，台北市長選戰持續升溫，台北市長蔣萬安今（26）日在敦化國中舉辦競選總部成立大會，卻不見民眾黨6位市議員候選人到場。國民黨立委兼競選總部總幹事羅智強抵達現場時表示，蔣萬安昨晚專程前往台北市議會拜會民眾黨4位議員，雙方針對市政議題交流近3小時，並達成共識，由民眾黨主席黃國昌代表出席今日活動；至於後續是否還有機會與民眾黨議員候選人同框，羅智強僅說「拭目以待」。針對民眾黨台北市議員候選人今...

Despite TPP chair Huang Kuo-chang showing up to promote Chiang Wan-an and show TPP unity with the KMT, none of the TPP Taipei City councilor candidates were at the rally. Huang gave a big speech. /5 news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...

udn.com挺台北安可！蔣萬安競總成立主辦宣布下午三點多「已破3萬人」 | 聯合新聞網台北市長蔣萬安今天競選總部成立，支持者穿著白色上衣熱情相挺，活動會場敦化國中人潮擠爆，下午15時左右，主辦單位宣布，現場人數已經破3萬人，台中市長盧秀燕到場時，也受到現場支持者熱情歡迎，許多人要求與盧媽合照。

Chiang campaign said 30,000 people showed up, comparable size to Lee Shu-chuan's big rally earlier this month. Obviously way smaller than Shen's HQ rally, but as Han learned, big rallies doesn't mean you'll win. Looks like everyone is doing the ribbon thing now. /2 udn.com/news/story/1...

news.ltn.com.tw天母萬聖節驚見「迷你沈伯洋」！開口唱歌驚呆網：比本人還厲害 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報首次上稿15:35更新時間16:43民進黨台北市長候選人沈伯洋今（26）日化身為帥氣船長並戴上招牌爆炸頭假髮，出席「天母搞什麼鬼」萬聖節發糖同樂活動。現場更驚喜出現1名神還原沈伯洋造型的小男孩，不僅大方自稱沈伯洋，更當場清唱競選歌曲《台北值得沈伯洋》，落落大方的穩健台風迅速在社群網路上掀起瘋傳。

In the meantime, DPP mayoral candidate Puma Shen shows up in Tianmu for a Halloween event. Later he has the Keelung event this evening. /3 news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...

news.ltn.com.tw九合一選舉倒數》民進黨︰決戰雙北搶攻基宜竹彰嘉市 - 政治 - 自由時報電子報百里侯爭霸進入決戰倒數一個月，民進黨鎖定「五加Ｎ」戰略目標，一面力守既有版圖，一面以「雙北雙箭頭」聲勢向其他縣市擴散。黨內看好基隆市、宜蘭縣、新竹縣、彰化縣、嘉義市翻轉執政，台中市和台東縣也急起直追；進入選戰最後階段，黨內規劃大型造勢催票，搭配總統賴清德、前總統蔡英文等輔選天王輪番助陣，並強化青年返鄉投票的訴求。「洋流」共伴效應帶動綠營選情。民進黨主席賴清德近日特別提醒，無論民調如何起伏，黨公職都...

Taiwan election tidbits: LTN has an insider article on DPP targets this election: Changhua County, Chiayi City, Yilan County, Hsinchu County, and Keelung City are very gettable. DPP is worried about a tough race in Penghu and will play defense in the south. /1 news.ltn.com.tw/news/politic...

The DPP assesses the crucial battleground is to be getting Su Chiao-hui the win in New Taipei, with large scale rallies planned for 4 straight weeks. Special attention is given to Puma Shen, Tsai, Lai, and VP Hsiao who will be attending these rallies. Note Shen is now a big campaign surrogate. /3

The DPP notes that they're catching up in Taichung city and Taitung as well. In Taitung DPP's Chen Ying is aiming to get 40% of indigenous voters. /end

Taipei-New Taipei has unexpectedly heated up what was first expected to be a lukewarm election campaign has now become exciting. They attribute this to "ocean currents" and increased focus on policy (e.g. no China talk). /2

Taipei election 2026: Tomorrow while Chiang Wan-an is doing his big HQ rally opening with the KMT, Puma Shen will be heading over to Keelung to motorcade campaign with DPP mayoral candidate Tung Tzu-wei. This highlights the effect of Shen's rise in Taipei in a few ways... /1

Tung Tzu-wei is heavily capitalizing on Puma Shen's northern presence and is even copying the ribbon style that has become so popular with Shen's supporters. He's also gone on to be interviewed by the same deep blue interviewers that Shen became viral off of in September. /4

Keelung is flippable and has elected DPP pols in the in recent election years. The new polls showing incumbent George Hsieh isn't doing well approval wise highlights the electoral problems he's facing. Incumbency advantage not as big anymore maybe? We'll find out in a month. /end

What's playing out is exactly as what few would have foreseen a month ago, Chiang Wan-an has gone from being a popular incumbent to now being the embattled mayor who needs the KMT's help, with heavyweights now going to him. So he's stuck playing defense in Taipei and not able to go to other races /2

Puma Shen in contrast is free to campaign with other DPP candidates and boost them with the "ocean currents". He was already in Hsinchu city earlier. New Taipei is feeling the effects and Keelung is a contender for flipping to the DPP with recent polling showing Tung in a tight race with Hsieh. /3

Taiwan election tidbits: Really big crowds in Hsinchu city have turned out to see DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen who is there to campaign for DPP mayoral candidate Chuang Ching-cheng. Also note: bulletproof glass boxes now being used in the motorcade.

Hsinchu City has DPP mayoral candidate Chuang Ching-cheng (莊競程) who's in a race vs KMT/TPP incumbent mayor Kao Hung-an (高虹安). There's also a third party candidate (何志勇) who may split off votes from the blue side.

Puma Shen had canceled today's big motorcade in Taipei over fears of the typhoon impact a few days ago, so I guess he's using the day off to bring his ocean tide movement to boost other DPP candidates today.

storm.mg幕後》賴清德為什麼派馬永成助沈伯洋？取台北市民進黨出倚天劍屠龍刀 | 劉庭宇 | VIP民進黨台北市長參選人沈伯洋將於10月31日與台北市長蔣萬安進行辯論，首場正面交鋒進入倒數，沈伯洋團隊10月20日晚間進行「總統級特訓」，邀集國安會諮詢委員黃重諺、行政院政務委員馬永成、行政院秘書長張惇涵閉門開會。沈伯洋選戰團隊成軍之初，就有前總統蔡英文系統的文宣幕僚私下獻策，協助社群經營及形象塑造；如今賴清德政府要角也親自上陣，傳授沈伯洋未注意到的「眉角」。......

Taipei election 2026: Storm Media article on who is assisting Puma Shen with the debate training. Lai has offered advice, but also has sent three people to help train Shen. Joining the fray is someone who isn't well known: EY Minister without Portfolio Ma Yung-cheng. /1 www.storm.mg/article/1117...

DPP insiders say that Ma Yung-cheng was impressed with Puma Shen and how fast he learned. After training sessions Ma has much confidence in him, because Shen has a strong ability to absorb information quickly without needing much else. Shen can breakdown questions into logical answers quickly. /6

DPP people state at the end of the day the KMT base in Taipei is strong, hence the DPP's adoption of a cautious attitude. They said the October 31st debate might help push centrists as long as Shen knows when to be blunt and when to be subtle. /end

Ma's experience participating in Chen Shui-bian's Taipei mayoral and presidential elections has led Lai to send him to Puma Shen to help him with the debate and how to approach it. Insiders praise Ma for his situational awareness and organization skills. /4

Puma Shen worries mainly about "speaking too fast". Puma Shen's team pointed out debates are not about reasoning but about political performance. They joke that Puma Shen can't beat Mayor Chiang Wan-an by memorizing a script. /5

Ma Yung-cheng joined Chen Shui-bian's team back when Chen was a legislator in the 1990s and assisted Chen with the famous Taipei mayoral election in 1994 that got him elected in a three-way election. /2