SifuBacktest

1/9 What is Zcash, and why does its privacy cost ten times as much as Monero's? ZEC went from $74 to a record close of $1,653 in a year and became the tenth-largest cryptocurrency. Privacy explains the rise. It does not explain the price level. #Zcash #Privacy

8/9 "The ETF is only a small part. Binance alone trades $316m of ZEC a day." That is true, but nothing is known about those buyers: not how long they hold, nor at what price they bought. What is known is that the visible buyers stopped and a visible seller sells every day.

1/9 What is Zcash, and why does its privacy cost ten times as much as Monero's? ZEC went from $74 to a record close of $1,653 in a year and became the tenth-largest cryptocurrency. Privacy explains the rise. It does not explain the price level. #Zcash #Privacy

6/9 On the other side is a seller with a name. Fortitude Mining, part of DCG like Grayscale, mined about 21.5 % of new ZEC this year. Its merger filing says: "Fortitude currently sells or otherwise monetizes all the digital assets that it mines, including ZEC."

1/9 What is Zcash, and why does its privacy cost ten times as much as Monero's? ZEC went from $74 to a record close of $1,653 in a year and became the tenth-largest cryptocurrency. Privacy explains the rise. It does not explain the price level. #Zcash #Privacy

4/9 The gap shows up next to Monero, where every transaction is private: → Zcash $20.8bn, about 5,600 private tx a day → Monero $10.3bn, about 27,700 private tx a day For each private transaction a day, the market values ZEC about ten times as highly as Monero.

1/9 What is Zcash, and why does its privacy cost ten times as much as Monero's? ZEC went from $74 to a record close of $1,653 in a year and became the tenth-largest cryptocurrency. Privacy explains the rise. It does not explain the price level. #Zcash #Privacy

2/9 What Zcash can do that Bitcoin cannot: hide the amount from everyone. → Bitcoin on-chain amount always visible → Lightning hidden on-chain, visible to routing nodes → Zcash shielded sender, receiver and amount encrypted Shielding is optional. 29 % of all ZEC is shielded.

1/6 On Oct 12, about three quarters of S&P 500 weight sat in a buyback blackout, the weeks before earnings when companies stop buying their own stock. When does that buyer return, and does the market rise with it? The calendar, and a test with a date. 🧵 #Stocks #Buybacks

5/6 The test: the S&P 500 closes higher on Dec 15 than on Oct 23. A win alone proves little. Oct 23 to Dec 15 was positive in 52 of 76 years since 1950, average +2.2 %. In midterm years: 12 of 19, +2.6 %. The margin decides.

1/6 On Oct 12, about three quarters of S&P 500 weight sat in a buyback blackout, the weeks before earnings when companies stop buying their own stock. When does that buyer return, and does the market rise with it? The calendar, and a test with a date. 🧵 #Stocks #Buybacks

3/6 Share of S&P 500 weight with an open buyback window, Citadel estimate: → Oct 12: 24 % → Oct 31: about 55 % → Nov 3, midterms: about 75 % → Nov 9: about 85 % Goldman counts companies: 48 % of S&P 500 members open before end of October.

1/6 On Oct 12, about three quarters of S&P 500 weight sat in a buyback blackout, the weeks before earnings when companies stop buying their own stock. When does that buyer return, and does the market rise with it? The calendar, and a test with a date. 🧵 #Stocks #Buybacks

1/10 Strategy wants to pay STRC dividends every day, weekends included. Shareholders vote on Oct 28, and Strategy pitches it as more demand and more Bitcoin per share. The weekly filings show who is buying STRC near $100 right now: Strategy itself. 🧵 #bitcoin #STRC

9/10 What it means: → STRC holders: same 12%, paid daily, smaller ex-day dips → MSTR holders: same dividend bill, maybe easier funding later → Bitcoin: no new buying until Strategy sells STRC again The vote widens the intake. Nothing flows through it yet.

1/10 Strategy wants to pay STRC dividends every day, weekends included. Shareholders vote on Oct 28, and Strategy pitches it as more demand and more Bitcoin per share. The weekly filings show who is buying STRC near $100 right now: Strategy itself. 🧵 #bitcoin #STRC

7/10 The precedent: Strive has paid daily on its preferred SATA since June 16, at 13% a year. In calm weeks it worked. In September SATA closed between $99.75 and $100.01, and its daily trading volume rose from $13–17M in Jan–Apr to $56–59M in Sep–Oct.

1/10 Strategy wants to pay STRC dividends every day, weekends included. Shareholders vote on Oct 28, and Strategy pitches it as more demand and more Bitcoin per share. The weekly filings show who is buying STRC near $100 right now: Strategy itself. 🧵 #bitcoin #STRC

5/10 The 8-Ks show money going the other way. → STRC sold since late May: none → STRC bought back since July: $1.97B → Oct 5–18: 517 BTC bought, via MSTR stock sales → Oct 19–25: $205M into STRC, no Bitcoin For now STRC raises nothing for Bitcoin. It costs Strategy money.

1/10 Strategy wants to pay STRC dividends every day, weekends included. Shareholders vote on Oct 28, and Strategy pitches it as more demand and more Bitcoin per share. The weekly filings show who is buying STRC near $100 right now: Strategy itself. 🧵 #bitcoin #STRC

3/10 What daily payment fixes is the dip on the ex-dividend day. STRC daily closes since Aug 2025, median move: → monthly payment, 11 ex-days: −43 bp → twice a month, 8 ex-days: −22 bp → all other days: +3 bp A daily payment is worth 3.3 bp. That dent all but disappears.

1/10 Strategy wants to pay STRC dividends every day, weekends included. Shareholders vote on Oct 28, and Strategy pitches it as more demand and more Bitcoin per share. The weekly filings show who is buying STRC near $100 right now: Strategy itself. 🧵 #bitcoin #STRC

1/7 Does it matter whether your Bitcoin savings plan buys on the 1st or the 16th of the month? Bitcoin's daily closes since August 2010 cover 194 complete months. Both halves of the month earned about the same. 🧵 #Bitcoin #DCA

6/7 Across every buy day from the 1st to the 28th, the best and worst day differ by 2.1 to 4.4 % in average cost. Days 11 to 14 came out best in all four windows. With 28 days tested, some look good by chance. A real effect would have to hold on data it was not picked from.

1/7 Does it matter whether your Bitcoin savings plan buys on the 1st or the 16th of the month? Bitcoin's daily closes since August 2010 cover 194 complete months. Both halves of the month earned about the same. 🧵 #Bitcoin #DCA

4/7 Since 2020 the first half looks stronger: → ahead in 60 % of 81 months → median +2.8 % against −0.1 % A paired t-test gives 0.49. Zero means no difference, and about 2 is the usual bar for a real one. 81 months of Bitcoin swings cannot tell this gap from chance.

1/7 Does it matter whether your Bitcoin savings plan buys on the 1st or the 16th of the month? Bitcoin's daily closes since August 2010 cover 194 complete months. Both halves of the month earned about the same. 🧵 #Bitcoin #DCA

2/7 The month split at the close on the 15th, 194 months: → first half +3.6 % on average, up in 62 % → second half +3.8 % on average, up in 55 % The first half did better in 97 months, the second half in the other 97. That is a coin flip.

1/6 Four days before Friday's $10.8bn bitcoin options expiry, the price has moved closer to max pain at 78,000. Is the expiry pulling it down? Since Saturday the gap shrank from 3.3 % to 2.5 %. This time the strike stood still and the price moved. 🧵 #bitcoin #options

5/6 Where the contracts sit now: → calls 10 % or more above the price 71 % of calls → largest band, 93.6–95.6k 21,901 calls → puts 10 % or more below 52 % of puts The biggest clusters only pay out if bitcoin moves 10 % or more by Friday.

1/6 Four days before Friday's $10.8bn bitcoin options expiry, the price has moved closer to max pain at 78,000. Is the expiry pulling it down? Since Saturday the gap shrank from 3.3 % to 2.5 %. This time the strike stood still and the price moved. 🧵 #bitcoin #options

3/6 Max pain has sat at 78,000 since 20 Oct, after a high of 79,000 in mid-October. In September the strike climbed 5,000 toward the price. Now the price is moving toward a strike that stopped climbing. The data shows who moved. It does not show who pulled.

1/6 Four days before Friday's $10.8bn bitcoin options expiry, the price has moved closer to max pain at 78,000. Is the expiry pulling it down? Since Saturday the gap shrank from 3.3 % to 2.5 %. This time the strike stood still and the price moved. 🧵 #bitcoin #options

1/8 VVV, the token of the AI service Venice, is up more than sixteenfold this year. Bitcoin is slightly down. The case for the token: using Venice's AI through DIEM locks up VVV. So what does a new DIEM cost today, and what does the market charge? 🧵 #AI #Crypto

7/8 What the token gets from revenue: $5 of every $100 in credits buys and burns VVV. September 2026: → burned 36,418 VVV, about $0.89m → newly issued 206,430 VVV, about $5.1m Supply still grows about 1.9 % a year, net.

1/8 VVV, the token of the AI service Venice, is up more than sixteenfold this year. Bitcoin is slightly down. The case for the token: using Venice's AI through DIEM locks up VVV. So what does a new DIEM cost today, and what does the market charge? 🧵 #AI #Crypto

5/8 A little minting still happens, by people whose VVV is staked anyway. Locked sVVV keeps 80 % of the staking yield. → 30 Sep to 7 Oct +82 DIEM → since end of April −2,100 DIEM New DIEM come from VVV people already had, not from new purchases.

1/8 VVV, the token of the AI service Venice, is up more than sixteenfold this year. Bitcoin is slightly down. The case for the token: using Venice's AI through DIEM locks up VVV. So what does a new DIEM cost today, and what does the market charge? 🧵 #AI #Crypto

3/8 How DIEM works: → stake VVV, get sVVV → lock sVVV, mint DIEM → stake the DIEM, get $1 of API credit every day Unused credit expires at midnight UTC. Burn the DIEM and your VVV is free again. A DIEM is a pension paid out in compute.

1/8 VVV, the token of the AI service Venice, is up more than sixteenfold this year. Bitcoin is slightly down. The case for the token: using Venice's AI through DIEM locks up VVV. So what does a new DIEM cost today, and what does the market charge? 🧵 #AI #Crypto