Jesse “ElectionSky When?” Bacon

David Nir@davidnir.com

This summer, we banned low-rent poll aggregation engagement farms from our Discord server. Didn’t need any further examples to back us up, but we sure got one tonight.

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com

Join us as we cover the midterm results in the most chaotic, engaging, informative way you've ever seen: live spreadsheets and screen shares from my basement. Election-night coverage that's For Sickos, By Sickos. Bookmark this page: open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Indivisible ❌👑@indivisible.org

We saw a 51% jump in early voting in areas with a No Kings event. We the People have the power, and all these fascists are bound to lose! #VoteEarly

The Downballot@the-downballot.com

NEW from The Downballot: Thanks to some major statistical refinements developed by @marshak1.bsky.social, we can say with confidence that special elections are pointing toward a midterm that's at least as strong for Democrats as 2018. And perhaps even better.

the-downballot.comSpecial elections show Democrats headed for a year as good as 2018—if not betterRigorous refinements have improved special elections as a predictive tool

Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc)@purrtah.bsky.social

Adam Hamilton raised $11m and Roger Marshall raised $800k

Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc)@purrtah.bsky.social

For the first time, albeit narrowly, Pennsylvania Democrats are favored to create a trifecta per State Navigate

Andrew Palmer 🎃@andrewp97.bsky.social

literally a daily october surprise

The Downballot@the-downballot.com

Want polls? There are 27 different entries in our Poll Pile, including some surveys that were released just this morning.

The Downballot@the-downballot.com

Want polls? There are 27 different entries in our Poll Pile, including some surveys that were released just this morning.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Q: Many feel you have not addressed the fact your son in law is a white supremacist influencer. What have you said to your family? COLLINS: That's my family OSSOFF: Imagine running for Senate while neo-Nazi propaganda is disseminated to an audience of millions from your home. That's Mike Collins.

The Downballot@the-downballot.com

We explained the ad in a recent deep dive into the GOP's last-minute rescue mission to Kansas

the-downballot.comMorning Digest: Republicans abandon North Carolina—and race to rescue KansasAnd in Georgia, "It's about making the patient comfortable," says one GOP operative

James Hell Brooks@kleinman.bsky.social

Relax, Debra Messing isn't endorsing a Republican because she's a bigot, she's endorsing a Republican because she's a Manhattan car driver who hates congestion pricing. The fact that she's a bigot has nothing to do with it.

Kabir K.@kabirkhanna.bsky.social

Gallup now finds D+11 advantage on leaned party identification Bigger than D lead heading into 2018 midterm, and largest it's been since Obama was elected in 2008 Reading also marks fifth quarter D advantage has grown since Trump took office again in 2025 Source: news.gallup.com/poll/654560/...

news.gallup.comQuarterly Party AffiliationIn politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (Asked of independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)

The Downballot@the-downballot.com

A lot of Republicans in red states are simply not used to having to run serious general election campaigns. Now, suddenly, they have to—and the rust is *seriously* showing. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @joesudbay.bsky.social spotlight just how unready Republicans look -->

the-downballot.comRepublicans are looking sooo rustyListen now (56 mins) | In red states, they simply aren’t used to hard campaigns

The Downballot@the-downballot.com

Per Punchbowl today, GOP seats that "both parties privately agree are in deep, deep trouble." "Almost cooked already" (their words): #CA48, #IA01, #NE02, #NJ07 & #PA07 "Growing more difficult for Republicans but still within reach": #AZ06, #IA03, #OH07 & #PA10

punchbowl.newsThe House Republicans facing tough reelectionsThere are a number of GOP lawmakers running for reelection across the country that both parties privately agree are in deep trouble.

Jane Coaston@janecoaston.bsky.social

also, the idea that Jewish New Yorkers -- the vast majority of whom are anti-Netanyahu and moreover have NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT THE STATE OF ISRAEL DOES -- are the equivalent of the ... French military in Algeria? what?

Brad Lander@bradlander.bsky.social

You might not have MO-2 on your congressional district radar screen. But you should! (even if you weren’t born there ;-)

Daniel Donner@donnermaps.bsky.social

And then again in 2006, we see what may be the final stages of ideological realignment, with Texas and Florida shouldering a significant share of the blame, perhaps related to the connections of George W. Bush to those states.

The Downballot@the-downballot.com

Oh yes, very much so. Dan's key insight was to plot the *change* in the national primary margin (from midterm to midterm) against the House vote. When you do that, something absolutely astonishing emerges. For the last *80* years, the two measures have closely tracked one another. Eight decades!

Ariel Edwards-Levy@aedwardslevy.bsky.social

democrats push midterm turnout push

James Hell Brooks@kleinman.bsky.social

One of the few groups that have gotten more Republican since 2024 (Pres vote was 71-26) and even then we're still D +41