Uncrewed

The Utah Democrats are hoping to expand their caucus out of Salt Lake County by flipping #HD59, which combines Wasatch County with the liberal resort town of Park City. It backed Trump by 11, but the Dems have a great candidate and no GOP incumbent running. SLEW RATING: Lean R

Another brand new edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering November's elections in Colorado, Missouri, & Wisconsin! Can the Democrats break/form supermajorities and flip the Wisconsin legislature at the same time? Find out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

With Ken Paxton leading the ticket and Trump becoming pendejo numero uno among Hispanic voters, the Democrats have a chance at flipping #HD37 in the Rio Grande Valley. It backed Trump by 11 points, but did back both Biden & Clinton (the latter by 12). SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering this year's elections in Alabama, Minnesota, & South Carolina! Can the Democrats break supermajorities and dead-even ties next month? Find out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

It's Bolsonover

The Tennessee Democrats don't have a lot going for them this year, but they do have an opportunity to continue breaking through in suburban Memphis by flipping #HD97. It's a Harris+5 district and they only lost it by 1,000 votes in 2024. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

SUNDAY MORNING TRUTH NVKE

The last thing Darren Bailey sees before he loses by 20 points

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering November's elections in Kentucky, Oklahoma, & Oregon! Two deeply GOP states and a state where the Dems are hoping for a supermajority in face of an unpopular Gov. Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

Holy shit 10/10 bsky.app/profile/uncr...

Now seated for

South Dakota has some chaotic elections in #LD27 this year. For the Senate, it's D v R vs a Dem-turned-GOP-turned-Indy State Rep. For the House, it's one Republican and FOUR INDEPENDENTS running for two seats! SLEW RATINGS: Lean D (Senate), Uncontested Ind/Lean R (House)

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering November's state legislative elections in Connecticut, Iowa, & Utah! From the death of the Connecticut GOP to the Iowa Dems maybe pulling off the unthinkable. Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

After two straight cycles of barely losing it, the South Carolina Democrats are optimistic about flipping #HD116 next month. This suburban Charleston seat only backed Trump by 0.6%, so it should be a win on a good night for Democrats. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

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The next part of the State Legislative Election Watch's 2026 preview is out now covering this year's state legislative elections in Arkansas, Kansas, & Nevada! From a trifecta opportunity to breaking supermajorities, it's all here. Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

Rhode Island has a chaotic election in #HD15 this year. Not only is the GOP incumbent facing a Dem, he's also facing former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung running as an Independent! The split on the right should lead to a Dem flip, but it's up in the air. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

“I can’t believe people would fall for people like Wedgewood, they were sus from the beginning!” “Anyway, here’s 29 different polls from 10 Glup Shitto pollsters that definitely aren’t fake!” - Average political aggregator account

Another brand new edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering November's state legislative elections in Idaho, Nebraska, & New Mexico! Three more small states doesn't mean they don't have very interesting elections! Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

The Pennsylvania GOP's goal of holding the State Senate this year may get a major wrench thrown in it thanks to #SD46, a Trump+28 seat covering SWPA. That's because an Independent is running against the GOP incumbent and polling really close! SLEW RATING: Lean R

The next edition of the State Legislative Election Watch's 2026 Preview is out now covering this year's state legislative elections in Hawaii, New Hampshire, & West Virginia! Yes, I rated all 400+ races in New Hampshire. Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

Chat is it good for the GOP that they're triaging double-digit Trump districts two weeks before election day

With the Republican incumbent retiring, the Oregon Democrats are hoping to flip #HD52, which covers the Hood River/Dalles area. It's a Harris+7 district, so it should be an easy flip, but Tina Kotek at the top of the ballot might complicate things. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering this year's state legislative elections in Maine, Rhode Island, & Montana! Three of the smallest states in the country are chock full of competitive races! Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

After narrowly losing it in 2024, the Oklahoma Democrats are hoping to flip #HD100 in suburban Oklahoma City. It only backed Trump by 80 votes and will almost certainly vote Dem for Governor this year, so they should be favored. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

Part 2 of the State Legislative Election Watch 2026 Election Preview is out now covering November's state legislative elections in Delaware and the Dakotas! Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

I'm actually kind of proud that people know enough about state legislative elections now that I can get called a dumbass about my ratings. We've made a lot of progress folks!

The Ohio Democrats can flip the final State House seat in Cuyahoga County currently held by the GOP next month, but it'll be a bit of a challenge. #HD17 is a Trump+6 district and has a Republican incumbent who outperformed Trump in 2024. Still doable though. SLEW RATING: Lean R

The first part of the SLEW 2026 Election Preview is out now! We're kicking things off by covering Alaska, Vermont, & Wyoming's state legislative races. They may be America's smallest states, but they have a bunch of interesting races this year. Check it out! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

The North Dakota Democrats still somehow have a seat in #HD25, a Trump+38 seat covering Richland County. That's because Democrat Alisa Mitskog is an electoral powerhouse! Will that hold this year? She's got a good chance! SLEW RATING: Lean D-NPL

Is this the year where party-switching Republican incumbent Tricia Cotham finally loses in North Carolina's #HD105? Well, her suburban Charlotte district was a Trump-Harris district and she only won by 0.4% in 2024, so the odds are not in her favor. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

LOLDODGERS

Thanks to a retirement, the New York Democrats have a tough defense in #AD119, a Trump+15 seat covering the Utica/Rome area. Definitely a tough lift, even with a solid national environment for the Democrats. SLEW RATING: Lean R (FLIP)

Can the Democrats knock off the last remaining House Republican in Albuquerque? They can if they flip New Mexico's #HD31, a Harris+9 seat in northeast Albuquerque. They're on candidate number two this year though and the GOP incumbent is strong. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

Late night triage just dropped

The centrist Independent running to succeed Chuy Garcia in #IL04 (Chris Getty) actually got endorsed by Joe Manchin a few weeks ago. Manchin, Raymond Lopez, and the guitarist for Nirvana is nightmare blunt rotation endorsement list

Why does Aaron Flint look like a guy that would be on a Turning Point USA "Dear Liberal, if obvious strawman is a strawman, then why strawman exist" Facebook meme that your racist uncle shares 24/7 bsky.app/profile/zoan...

The New Hampshire Democrats surprisingly lost #SD18, covering southern Manchester/Litchfield, in 2024 by 3 points as the district swung from Biden+5 to Trump+1. Now with a more favorable political environment, they're hoping to swing it back. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

In order to flip the Nevada State Senate, the Republicans are going to need a clean sweep of #SD08, #SD09, & #SD12 in suburban Las Vegas. These are very competitive districts, but with the environment, it's not good for the GOP. SLEW RATINGS: Safe D (9 & 12), Likely D (8)