Vali Nasr

Exciting news, my new book Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History is out today 👇🏼 a.co/d/dY7T94R or press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

I really enjoyed and recommend Kim Ghattas brilliant new book. It is a well research and well written account of the origin story of Hezbollah and the early years of Islamic Republic from the vantage point of Lebanon. Full of scintillating details and untold twists and turns of 1980s Middle East

Bibi has blurred the lines of what is national security for Israeli and what is political threat to him. For Israel that lack of clarity means that war, devastation and fate of the region are becoming domestic politics. That is bad for the region and Israel itself. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/26/w...

My podcast interview with DecodingGeopolitics on the next phase of the war youtu.be/zCOSKDLTGoI?...

Told WSJ US “can dismiss Iran’s threats as bluffs, but then they have surprised throughout this war. So if anything we should be cautious in discounting the threats. I am not sure their capabilities are diminished.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...

By allowing Russia sell Diesel US is abandoning minimal common ground w Europe on Ukraine for war w Iran. For Europe Russian threat is its top strategic problem. casting Iran as a West's civilizational enemy going back to Ancient Greece can't overcome this significant break between US and Europe.

In our new piece in Foreign Affairs Narges Bajoghli and I discuss Iran’s theory of victory, why Tehrans calculations are different from common conceptions in the West www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-t...

Retreat of US forces from bases in Persian Gulf to Jordan & Israel & Britain and now retreating from Britain is a setback before effective Iranian strategy, but will have broader unintended consequences for US military presence and effectiveness in rest of the world www.nytimes.com/2026/10/07/u...

Mark Carney on how grave Canada's rupture with US has become: "on whether he took Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state seriously, Carney suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action." www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/w...

Mark Carney on how grave Canada's rupture with US has become: "on whether he took Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state seriously, Carney suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action." www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/w...

My interview with The Wire on US-Iran: Where are we at? What can we expect next? | Live www.youtube.com/live/5tGC2lD...

My interview with The Wire on US-Iran: Where are we at? What can we expect next? | Live www.youtube.com/live/5tGC2lD...

Trump ordered US to bomb Houthis on Sunday and then changed his mind. US is short on ammunition or is he worried of Houthis retaliation on Saudi oil facilities or he is keeping his powder dry for a bigger bombing campaign to come against Iran? www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/u...

My commentary for CSIS on the ways in which security order in the Middle East has changed during Iran war and Iran views the region’s future www.csis.org/analysis/ira...

“Iran sees ample opportunity to influence the shape of an emergent order and sees itself as an important part of it,” writes @valinasr.bsky.social. Read more from @mideast.csis.org: https://bit.ly/4htC6ee

"In the vacuum left by the U.S., Iran expects that China will play a larger role in the Middle East. Its economic presence will likely increase, as will its diplomatic role in mediating peace between rival alliances," writes @valinasr.bsky.social Read: https://bit.ly/4htC6ee

"Iran believes that its hold over the Strait of Hormuz will diminish U.S. appetite for another war with Iran, and that will in turn limit Israel’s military options," writes @valinasr.bsky.social in the second installment of The Middle East Futures Papers. www.csis.org/analysis/ira...

My commentary for CSIS on the ways in which security order in the Middle East has changed during Iran war and Iran views the region’s future www.csis.org/analysis/ira...

JD Vance decided to get his own unvarnished account of how the war is going from US commanders in the field. According NYT what he "came away from some of his conversations with deep concerns about the overall strategy and the prospects for success. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/10/u...

My interview with WTFinance podcast on where the US-Iran stand-off is heading and the legacy of the war youtu.be/DmXJIDku62I?...

excellent take on ground realities of Iran's economy and why America can’t easily strangle it www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/why-ame...

I really enjoyed reading Liaquat Ahamed's 1873. It is economic history at its best. Really well-written and very informative and with much to say the economy today a.co/d/08R0H4dX

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

My interview with the Telegraph on implications of six month of war for the regional order youtu.be/kTyBdV2-sxA?...

As Trump’s economic warfare takes its toll, Tehran will be tempted to go on the offensive in search of greater leverage foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/26/i...

China warns US it could retaliate over Iran sanctions “Any serious increase in US sanctions on China, which buys 90 per cent of Iran’s oil, would risk exploding the relationship only a month before presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington” www.ft.com/content/aa7b...

Important piece by Nate Swanson on why Maximum Pressure on Iran Will Fail. “Forty-seven years of prioritizing pressure culminated in a costly war that revealed the limits of what that approach can accomplish.” www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

China warns US it could retaliate over Iran sanctions “Any serious increase in US sanctions on China, which buys 90 per cent of Iran’s oil, would risk exploding the relationship only a month before presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington” www.ft.com/content/aa7b...

Bessant's roll-out of "Economic D-Day" suggests that the baton in the Iran war has been passed from Hegseth and the Pentagon to Bessant and the Treasury. He is embracing the idea that he and the Treasury will win the war for Trump, deliver what the military hasn't.

I told the Guardian “The whole point Iran is making is that ‘We’re not going to let him decide the sort of ebb and flow of this war. Their position is ‘We have a vote here, and we’re not just going to make it convenient for him’” www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...

I spoke with ⁦‪⁦‪Ishaan Tharoor of New Yorker Magazine‬⁩ on impact of war on US standing: “Everybody now sees America as less than it was before. Once this war is over, U.S. is going to find the rest of the world much more difficult to herd around any coherent policy.”

I told NYT problem with Trump’s threat of economic pressure on Iran is: “there is no reasonable deal for Iran on the table. They bet that the only way to get a better deal is to accept costs now and hold the global economy’s and Trump’s feet to the fire.” www.nytimes.com/2026/08/19/w...

My interview with Equator magazine: "How the West misjudged Tehran – and what the Islamic Republic will do next" along with personal reflections on the 1979 revolution US-Iran relations www.equator.org/articles/tru...

Trump cannot walk away from the war with Iran nor can he make the war low key. That would need a ceasefire, and control over the war which he does’nt have. The war is in a holding pattern. Iran will not give Trump to low key the war to his convenience.

It was a pleasure joining Gideon Rachman for a podcast on FT to discuss Iran’s growing strategic ambitions out of the war www.ft.com/content/58a3...

Iran is defying US economic pressure by "moving from a resilient economy that absorbs shocks towards a survival economy that keeps functioning but steadily loses its capacity to recover” www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Excellent read in hos Iran exhausted US munitions www.nytimes.com/2026/08/11/u...

I told FT on new Iran national security advisor “Rezaei, as a more senior former commander and longest-serving commander of IRGC has far more authority and gravitas with military men than Zolghadr. It is tightening control by Mojtaba over IRGC & decision making.” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

I joined John Mearsheimer on Tom Switzer’s podcast to discuss Iran comes for US in Iran war? www.youtube.com/live/oW-QcUM...

great piece by Djavad Salehi-Isfahani: "Peace With Iran Won’t Last Unless It Benefits Ordinary Iranians" prosyn.org/P742xyO

A month of intense bombing and the grand achievement is an Iran-Oman deal to clarify and tighten language around Iran’s control over SoH so U.S. and Iran can go back to MoU. U.S. military pressure over past month seems to have improved the MoU terms for Iran !!

I told FT "Trump cannot win militarily at this level  and he cannot resolve this diplomatically without paying a political cost at home." So he is "lashing out because this is not as simple and as straightforward as he had calculated.” www.ft.com/content/87b0...

I told WSJ Trump is "trying his hand now at a diplomatic solution to avoid military escalation. But there’s no clear path, either diplomatically or militarily to allow Trump to declare victory” www.wsj.com/world/middle...

I told FT Iran has escalated "to force the US to recalculate its options, following a strategy of forcing the US as far away from Iran as possible: out of the Gulf, Syria, Iraq; holed up in Israel and Jordan.”https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/46485f78-9485-43b8-a43d-2e741f5697e0

I told FT Iran has escalated "to force the US to recalculate its options, following a strategy of forcing the US as far away from Iran as possible: out of the Gulf, Syria, Iraq; holed up in Israel and Jordan.”https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/46485f78-9485-43b8-a43d-2e741f5697e0

My interview with Equator magazine: "How the West misjudged Tehran – and what the Islamic Republic will do next" along with personal reflections on the 1979 revolution US-Iran relations www.equator.org/articles/tru...

I told Nancy Youssef and Jon Levine of Atlantic “America’s calculation is that escalation would lead to surrender. Iran’s calculation is that escalation would lead to deterrence,” www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...

I told Nancy Youssef and Jon Levine of Atlantic “America’s calculation is that escalation would lead to surrender. Iran’s calculation is that escalation would lead to deterrence,” www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...

I told NYT that in restarting the war Trump thought he could control, limiting the battlefield to where U.S. wants to bomb in Iran.“The Iranian response is to extend the battlefield much, much wider, so the United States has to defend a broader battlefield.” www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/u...

Quite an impasse: Trump has set aside is not escalating the war, because it could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of defense munitions, widene war, alienate regional allies, tank the global economy, and cause refugee crises. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/u...

Can the U.S. force the Strait open? “the quickest way of doing this, [other than] with a ceasefire is to flood the region with a global force that protects vessels. Only other way is an arrangement with Iran, which means the Americans are going to have to lose face. www.ft.com/content/1cbe...