Mick Ryan

Mick Ryan

@warinthefuture.bsky.social

Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia

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Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

It has been over 4 years since I published my first book, “War Transformed”. I will always be grateful to @USNIBooks for taking a chance on this first time author. In 2024, they also published “The War for Ukraine”. More news very soon on my next book.

Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

My weekly update on Ukraine and the Pacific, as well as my Big Five recommended war and national security readings, is now available. This week: Starlink slowdowns, Vivaldi lessons, Trump's embrace of Putin and Taiwan's joint C2 issues. mickryan.substack.com/p/communicat...

mickryan.substack.comCommunications Slowdowns, Seven Vivaldi Insights, More Sanctions Relief Possible for Putin, Taiwan’s Joint Command & Control.My weekly update on Ukraine and the Pacific, as well as my Big Five recommended war and national security readings.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

Wrong. Oh so wrong, Marco!

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com

⚡️️️️️️️Rubio reveals theory on Russia's war against Ukraine ahead of next US peace push. "People keep talking about it's a war in Ukraine. ... It's about one region of the country," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.

kyivindependent.comRubio reveals theory on Russia's war against Ukraine ahead of next US peace push"People keep talking about it's a war in Ukraine. ... It's about one region of the country," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

“More than 60% of Ukrainians consider handing Moscow all of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region in exchange for security guarantees completely unacceptable, according to a new poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).” www.kyivpost.com/post/87527

kyivpost.comAre Ukrainians Willing to Trade Donbas for Security Guarantees? Most Say NoClose to 80% identified Russia’s desire to subjugate Ukraine as the main obstacle to peace when asked which country is to blame for the ongoing war.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

“While much attention has focused on decentralized command, effective joint command and control is equally critical to improving Taiwan’s overall combat capability and making the best use of its limited resources.” @KTristanTang thediplomat.com/2026/10/miss...

thediplomat.comMissing the Forest for the Trees in Taiwan’s Defense PreparationsBeyond exercises and equipment, strategic developments in Taiwan’s military preparedness are being overlooked.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

"Ukrainians who have offered democracies a beacon of light in a world where the forces of authoritarian evil dim our hopes for a better future. The Ukrainians have given us more than we could ever repay." On Trump's "Ukraine has given us nothing" statement. mickryan.substack.com/p/what-has-u...

mickryan.substack.comWhat Has Ukraine Done for Us?A response to the US president’s claim that “We’ve given a lot to Ukraine. They’ve given us nothing!”
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

"Perhaps Trump’s decisions will be seen in the future as a turning point in the trajectory of this war, in Putin’s confidence to engage in aggression against other European nations and in America’s relationships with its allies in Europe and the Pacific." mickryan.substack.com/p/diesel-sta...

mickryan.substack.comDiesel, Starlink and the Price of TrustMy weekly update that this week examines the impacts of Trumps’ decisions about diesel and throttling Starlink speeds, in the Pacific and in Ukraine.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

Robotic Ground Combat, now in its 1st generation in Ukraine, is leading edge of change in land forces globally. Western military institutions must act now to develop UGVs that can be rapidly procured, networked, integrated into combined arms teams. mickryan.substack.com/p/robotic-gr...

mickryan.substack.comRobotic Ground Combat and Future WarAn examination of new developments in Uncrewed Ground Vehicles (UGV), how to translate the insights from Ukraine for militaries in other parts of the world & features of the next generation of UGVs.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

“Cognitive warfare, says the Ministry of National Defense (MND), is the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) use of “political, economic, cultural, military and legal means, with the intent to divide internal unity and undermine social stability” in Taiwan.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/ar...

taipeitimes.comNotes from Central Taiwan: Beijing’s intimidation tactics in Taiwan and beyond - Taipei TimesCognitive warfare, says the Ministry of National Defense (MND), is the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) use of “political, economic, cultural, military and legal means, with the intent to divide int...
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

“We will burn their refineries.” It has been a tough couple of days for Ukraine, with dozens killed in Russian strikes, and Trump’s ‘stab in the back’ diesel deal with Putin. My latest weekly update. mickryan.substack.com/p/trumps-die...

mickryan.substack.comTrump’s Diesel Doctrine and Betrayal of UkraineThis week: Trump’s diesel deal with Putin, failed Miami peace negotiations, Putin’s murderous week, China’s territorial claims, as well as my Big Five recommended readings.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

My in-depth interview with Modern War Institute about Operation Vivaldi, modern land combat, the tough intellectual work of retuning to the offensive in Ukraine, and what Western military institutions should be learning. mickryan.substack.com/p/discussing...

mickryan.substack.comDiscussing Operation VivaldiAn in-depth interview about Operation Vivaldi, modern land combat, the tough intellectual work of retuning to the offensive in Ukraine, and what Western military institutions should be learning.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

“Seventeen years ago, I made a decision that wounded two Rangers. I have carried that decision ever since. If a machine makes that same mistake twenty years from now, who will carry it?” A good piece on human decision-making & AI from @MWI_editor mwi.westpoint.edu/we-shot-the-...

mwi.westpoint.eduWe Shot the Wrong People: Autonomous Weapons and the Case for Human Judgment - Modern War InstituteIn August 2009, my Ranger platoon was twenty hours into a twenty-seven-hour firefight in the Khowst mountains of Afghanistan. Three platoons inserted onto a high ridgeline in darkness, hunting enemy [...
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

"Both sides are betting on their own industrial capacity (and that of their supporters), societal endurance and will." The long winter ahead in Ukraine, and the respective theories of success for Ukraine & Russia. mickryan.substack.com/p/vivaldi-fp...

mickryan.substack.comVivaldi, FP-7 and the Long Winter AheadIn this week’s update, Operation Vivaldi, Ukraine’s new ballistic missile, Russia’s winter bombing campaign, security updates from the Pacific, as well as my Big Five recommended reads.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

Robert Brovdi has noted “technology is advancing so rapidly that new drones may emerge even before procurement of the previous generation is complete.” This will be something the new US Autonomous Warfare Comd might address. mickryan.substack.com/p/project-ag...

mickryan.substack.comProject Agincourt and the New US Autonomous Warfare Command: An Initial AssessmentMy initial analysis of the announcement of Project Agincourt by the Pentagon, and the October 2027 establishment of a US Autonomous Warfare Command.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

Innovation and pioneering new technology and ideas are not the only ways to generate advantage in modern war. Sometimes, the emulation of innovations from elsewhere is just as important. mickryan.substack.com/p/building-a...

mickryan.substack.comBuilding an Edge in Modern War With Fast FollowingInnovation and pioneering new technology and ideas are not the only ways to generate advantage in modern war. Sometimes, the emulation of innovations from elsewhere is just as important.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

The Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps showed this week that its counteroffensive has built not just tactical but operational momentum. It has also released information on aspects of UGV integration into ground operations. All this & more in my weekly update. mickryan.substack.com/p/robotic-ai...

mickryan.substack.comRobotic Air Assaults as Vivaldi Rolls Forward, Russia Attacks Ukrainian Digital Infrastructure, Trump and Xi Meet. My Weekly Update.This week: ongoing coverage of the 3rd Army Corps eastern counteroffensive including new integrated drone tactics, Russia’s jet-powered drone strikes and the China-US summit.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

Exploitation of enemy weapons, tech & ideas has always been a crucial part of any nation’s warfighting strategy. It permits development of counters - or copying good enemy tech & ideas. Here, the disassembling of a jet-powered Russian Geran-4 attack drone, by @rferl.org.web.brid.gy

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty [Unofficial]@rferl.org.web.brid.gy

rferl.orgGeran-4 Unpacked: What Makes Russia's New Jet-Powered Drone So Dangerous?RFE/RL takes apart a Russian Geran-4 drone to uncover what makes the jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) faster, harder to intercept, and capable of operating deep inside Ukraine -- from its turbojet engine and advanced camera to foreign-made communications and navigation components.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

“No geopolitical conflict in the world today has the capacity, if miscalculated, of bringing ruin upon us all like the one between the United States and China. China tore through our domestic politics three-quarters of a century ago. It could be worse this time.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/21/o...

nytimes.comOpinion | America Is Blundering Toward War With China (Gift Article)The U.S. has long misunderstood Beijing, and Trump’s mixed signals aren’t helping.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

The authoritarian nations of China, Russia, Iran & North Korea, some of whom have interfered with US elections in the past, are likely to be anticipating the potential for political disfunction during & after the US mid-term elections. How worried should we be? mickryan.substack.com/p/how-much-s...

mickryan.substack.comHow Much Should US Allies Worry About the US Mid-Term Elections?Exploring the possibility of increased authoritarian aggression during the forthcoming mid-term election period in America.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

Offensive manoeuvre is not dead, and Vivaldi has demonstrated this. Whether Vivaldi’s next movement expands on current operations, or consolidates what has already been taken, is a fascinating question. My weekly update is now available. mickryan.substack.com/p/vivaldis-f...

mickryan.substack.comVivaldi’s First Season, Faster Drones, Slower Diplomacy and an Authoritarian Confrontation Without End, The Big Five 20 September editionIn this week’s update: a progress update on Operation Vivaldi in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s escalating civilian train attacks, a new phase in the Ukraine War, and the Big Five reading recommendations.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

Witkoff is even more inept than we thought. A good examination of the role of the White House front man for US efforts to end the war in Ukraine from the @KyivIndependent kyivindependent.com/exclusive-uk...

kyivindependent.comExclusive: Ukraine, Russia are done with Steve Witkoff. Trump sees no problemKyiv and Moscow are growing increasingly frustrated with the U.S.-mediated peace process — and with Washington's Envoy Steve Witkoff, people familiar with the matter told the Kyiv Independent. Witkof...
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

We need to dispense with the useless euphemisms that have previously been used to describe this so politicians can look away. This is war, plain and simple, and is how Putin sees it. And it will only get worse until Russia thinks it is getting push back. understandingwar.org/research/def...

understandingwar.orgThe Russian Military Campaign Against Europe: Defining the ThreatThe Kremlin is conducting a coordinated series of kinetic campaigns targeting Europe and NATO states must design holistic responses.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

In war, the difficulty of strategic leadership increases by orders of magnitude. I have just published an assessment of General Drapatyi's "Principles of Leadership" to see how he is thinking about command Ukraine's armed forces. mickryan.substack.com/p/strategic-...

mickryan.substack.comStrategic Leadership Renewed: Examining the Principles of Leadership Issued by General DrapatyiAn analysis of strategic leadership during the war in Ukraine, and the new Principles of Leadership issued by the new Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

"Offensive operations are still possible in modern war. But they need the intellectual effort to develop new techniques to make them viable and repeatable at scale." A review of potential implications of recent Ukrainian counteroffensives in the east & south. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-bu...

mickryan.substack.comUkraine Builds New Forms of Offensive ManoeuvreWhat Ukraine’s recent counteroffensives in the south and east tell us about the status of the war on the ground, and what they might mean for the trajectory of the conflict in 2026 and 2027.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

My latest weekly update is now out. This week: a new diplomatic push in Ukraine, General Drapatyi’s strategic guidance, deep strikes continue & the Big Five recommended readings. mickryan.substack.com/p/diplomacy-...

mickryan.substack.comDiplomacy on the Side. A New Peace Push in Ukraine, General Drapatyi’s Leadership Principles, and Chinese Aggression in the Pacific. The Big Five, 6 September 2026In this week’s update: a new diplomatic push in Ukraine from the Trump administration, Drapatyi’s strategic guidance, deep strikes continue, and the Big Five recommended readings.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

This article begins with the following proposition: “the warrior ethos is no longer useful philosophy for any military service…the warrior ethos is largely a stumbling block to the professional development of soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines.” An excellent piece. www.usni.org/magazines/pr...

usni.orgWhere Exactly Has the Warrior Ethos Gotten Us?The Marine Corps should revive its traditional ethos, emphasizing professional competence, readiness, honor, courage, and commitment for the demands of modern warfare.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

How do we shift from observing to absorbing lessons on modern war? In my latest piece, I explore ten urgent imperatives for military leaders to transform their institutions to be successful in 21st century warfare. mickryan.substack.com/p/modern-war...

mickryan.substack.comModern War: Ukraine, the Middle East and Imperatives for Modern Military InstitutionsHow do we shift from observing lessons from other peoples’ wars to absorbing them and improving our capacity to fight wars in the 21st century?
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

"Any Russian advance from Belarus would be impossible to hide, likely to be subject to pre-emptive attacks & under surveillance/attack from Ukrainian drones for the entire duration of operation." My weekly update on war & strategic competition. mickryan.substack.com/p/potential-...

mickryan.substack.comPotential Northern Offensive, Exotic Proposals, Hardening Positions and a Distracted Superpower. The Big Five 30 August editionThis week: a potential Russian offensive into northern Ukraine, Putin’s rejection of diplomacy, the ground and air wars, Pacific security developments and my Big 5 reading recommendations.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

"Any planned Russian advance from Belarus would be impossible to hide, likely to be subject to pre-emptive attacks, and under surveillance and attack from Ukrainian drones for the entire duration of any advance." mickryan.substack.com/p/potential-...

mickryan.substack.comPotential Northern Offensive, Exotic Proposals, Hardening Positions and a Distracted Superpower. The Big Five 30 August editionThis week: a potential Russian offensive into northern Ukraine, Putin’s rejection of diplomacy, the ground and air wars, Pacific security developments and my Big 5 reading recommendations.
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social

Recently, a U.S. Army brigade in Europe had a tough learning experience against Ukrainian drone operators. My latest at the Lowy Institute asks whether other military institutions, including the Australian Army, would do any better. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

lowyinstitute.orgThe US Army lost against Ukraine but would Australia do any better?The Ukraine war presents a profound learning opportunity for the Australian Army. It has barely begun to adopt the lessons.