Will

Will

@will-rich.bsky.social

EM macro watcher

268 followers192 following1.2K posts

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

When Germany didn't issue much debt the obvious next best alternative was French debt and it suppressed yields to some extent Germany is about it issue loads of debt at the same time as France is proving itself to be particularly unreasonable un-creditworthy

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

You can't invest in sovereign bonds, you can't invest in the property market, equities don't work either Where can Chinese investors safely invest?

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

GfK consumer confidence -24 vs -13 prior and -14 expected UK PMI composite 53.1 vs 52.0 prior and 51.7 expected What to make of that..

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

Tesla and SpaceX merger was highly foreseeable The exciting bit is the collsal equity raise that will result in a fab JV with Intel/ the US Gov

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

To continue speculation, OpenAI and Anthropic do not want to release their best models until they're absolutely certain that distillation is fixed AND that the US Gov won't crush them for being (more) wreckless But we'll get teasers as IPO day nears so that ARRs get a nice boost

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

Probably get the S-1 in the next couple weeks which will confirm 3Q revenue was USD 16.8bn (USD 70bn ARR) and year-end ARR to be USD c.100bn OpenAI lagging despite Astra and likely aiming for a USD 70bn ARR by EoY

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

Citrini's latest includes one of their analysts offering to be a human test case for their AI-developed scorpion antivenom Also, it's wild how under-followed the Anthropic head of Drug Discovery is (who worked with the Citrini team on the journey)

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

Intelligence is not the main bottleneck in drug development 64hrs of dry lab design 39 days for wet lab results 4-7y for release (if successful)

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

Will we back at the zero lower bound in the 2030s? Energy shocks fade Appetite for military spending could flip Tariff and migration policy could also swing back AI investment boom either dies out because it doesn't work or we get massive productivity gains compress corporate

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

Hikes for air fares in the US arrived earlier because the airliners tend not to hedge jet fuel In CPI that was a 22% increase

Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com

Buckle up. In an expletive-laden press conference, Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary predicted European air fares will go up by as much as 20% next year. bloom.bg/4hR223K 📷: John McDougall / Getty Images

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

Ryanair hedge their jet fuel costs on a 12+18m window They have high near-term coverage of c.75% of fuel this year but next year coverage is comfortably less than 25% So it's probably our turn soon

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

The state is now deciding rent at the unit level In this case the tribunal decided that rent should fall compared to the rate it was let at during the prior year Curious interpretation of market rates. In how many markets across the country are rents falling. Avg private rent up 3.8% y/y per ONS..

Will@will-rich.bsky.social

The Renter's Rights Act comes in to force today. Ahead of it a number of, mostly small, landlords have been selling up. 14% of properties that sold were bought by other landlords and returned to the rental market, per Savilles analysis

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

Very healthy single-month unemployment rate fell from 4.9% in July, to 4.3% in August Seems to be implausibly volatile but it was in the other direction not long ago

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

It is a big failure of successive governments to not fix the LFS with the necessary haste for the BoE to actually make good decisions on quality data The transformed LFS not being ready for another year is not good enough

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

I've never really understood why you'd want to hold Telco debt and I guess that's a normal sentiment Watching very smart people get killed on Virgin Media makes me wonder how many were actually making good decisions

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Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

"Some withnesses expressed the view that the press release should not have stated that the system was 'not at risk' when the system was consistently in breach of operational limits, with operators working around the clock."

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

"multiple witnesses expressing the view that those in senior leadership and executive positions do not fully appreciate or understand either the way in which the Control Room works, or the reality of the pressures faced by those on the frontline who are responsible for “keeping the lights on”

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

Frech fiscal incontinence, German property expropriation and sensible old Britain getting ready for massive austerity package all concurrently EM-ification of DM is here but unevenly distributed

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

SK Square trades at 2.09x 2027 consensus earnings I know that you shouldn't value cyclicals on earnings one-year earnings multiples but c'mon Either something has gone badly wrong or in a couple of months we'll all be kicking ourselves for not remortgaging the house

Will
@will-rich.bsky.social

"Approximately 60% of the estimated annual benefits accrue to households outside of Thames Water’s service area, although only Thames Water customers will pay towards the Tunnel’s costs"

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