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winefaultlines.bsky.social
winefaultlines.bsky.social
@winefaultlines.bsky.social
Fine wine markets, producer allocation, and the forces that move prices before the market catches on. Burgundy, Champagne, and now Sake. Substack → winefaultlines.substack.com
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This is the part of the market that never shows up in an auction result. It just quietly gets smaller every year, and the scarce end keeps pricing as if it doesn't exist.
Most recent data on U.S. wine consumption show continued decline. NABCA figures through July 2026 show wine consumption in the 11 control states — where the state runs wine wholesale and often retail — still has not turned around. July was 4.6% below July 2025, the rolling 12-month average down 4.2%
The shop layer is splitting the same way the bottles do. The top end and the well-capitalized keep clearing, while the middle is left holding stock that no longer matches how people actually buy. Retail is just where the market's two speeds show up on the ground.
With all that's going on in wine, what's the state of wine retail? www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/d...
The cleverest anti-fraud trick in wine might be the NFC chip that breaks itself the moment you open the bottle. Proof of authenticity vanishes with the pour. Part II of the fraud special: how producers fight back. winefaultlines.substack.com/p/how-produc...
The base of this chart is the part of the market that runs on people drinking regularly, and it keeps thinning. The scarce top was never volume-driven, so it just drifts further from the line every year. Same product, two markets that barely touch anymore.
Global Per Capita Wine, Beer, and Spirits Consumption, 1961–2025
The moment wine moved onto self-service shelves, most of it started being priced like groceries. The scarce, access-gated end went the other way, and that split still runs the whole market.
France in the 1950s -- Goulet-Turpin's rolling grocery and wine store serving rural regions. Founded in Reims in 1874, it opened France's first self-service store in 1948 and first supermarket in 1958. By 1970 it had 1,000 grocery stores, 10 supermarkets and 5 hypermarkets, but closed a decade later
Once wine is a small line inside a luxury giant, the bottles start answering to volume and brand math, and scarcity quietly stops setting the direction.
LVMH Group's Global Revenue and the Share of Wine and Spirits, 2008-2025. In 2025, LVMH's revenue amounted to €80.8 billion, with €5.4 billion coming from wine and spirits (including champagne). This segment's share has continuously declined from 18.2% in 2008 to just 6.6% in 2025.
Even the corporate drinks cabinet is shrinking. A broadcaster halving its bar bill in a decade shows the pullback reaches well past young drinkers.
The BBC spent £13,018 with its preferred alcohol supplier in 2024/25, less than half the £26,131 spent through the same route in 2016. Previously released figures give an unusually detailed look inside the broadcaster’s drinks cabinet.
A flat June sitting on top of a 4.2% annual decline is the market people mean when they say "wine in general," and it's still drifting down. What a national average hides is how far the top of the market has pulled away from the middle.
The National Alcohol Beverage Control Association (NABCA) offers a snapshot of recent data through June 2026. Wine consumption in 11 control states — where the state runs wine wholesale and retail — hasn't turned around. June 2026 was 0.1% above June 2025, while the rolling 12-month avg is down 4.2%
Full June read — five signals from Liv-ex, tariffs, and the auction floor: winefaultlines.substack.com/p/is-the-bot...