Yair Wallach

Israel's longest serving Prime minister is posting images of queues outside polling stations in Arab towns, describing Palestinian citizens exercising their right to vote as an existential threat: "The future of our Jewish State is hanging in the balance".

The threat of sanctions finally attracts the attention of Israeli media and voters. Thanks to Netanyahu, who promises Israelis a blockchain based economy to circumvent future sanctions. A massive own-goal just four days before polling day; he seems to be losing his game.

The Israeli elections will determine the future of 15.5 million people living between the river and the sea. Only 10m Israeli citizens can vote. Palestinians in East Jerusalem (40% of Jerusalem's population), in the West Bank and Gaza under Israeli occupation or siege, cannot vote.

Furthermore, 2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel can vote, but their representatives are ruled out from future participation in government by most all Israeli parties. These representatives are routinely described as "terrorists" or "terror supporters".

Beyond the big numbers (opposition vs govt) perhaps the most important figure in coming election is the number of seats of the Likud. In 2022 it won 32 seats. It is now averaging between 21 and 19 seats. Lower than that, and it's difficult to see Netanyahu staying, even as head of opposition.

The Likud can also overperform. It did so in 2015, when the polls said 20 seats, and it got 30 and won a clear mandate. That election had a certain buzz for the opposition but results did not live up to the polls. I'd say this time is different, and I doubt Likud can pull it off.

On the NYT the daily podcast, it was said yesterday that in Israeli polls, the government and the opposition "have roughly half the country". This is patently false. It only works if you exclude Arab voters and the two Arab parties. In the polls, the government has about 42% The opposition is 58%

My own prediction is that the government block will not have more than 40%. That's the lower end of the polls right now. You can't call such results anything but a loss.

On the NYT the daily podcast, it was said yesterday that in Israeli polls, the government and the opposition "have roughly half the country". This is patently false. It only works if you exclude Arab voters and the two Arab parties. In the polls, the government has about 42% The opposition is 58%

Pete Hageseth's secret visit to Israel yesterday, and Netanyahu's looming defeat, raise the chances of an Israeli attack on Iran to postpone the election.

Perhaps. I doubt it. My scenario is that it discredits the Greens as a credible challenge to Labour, and hence removes pressure from Labour to move left on Palestine. The only upside is that Miliband seems to be invested in sanctions on settlements regardless of political manoeuvring.

At least for now, the approach of all-or-nothing, frontal attack, let's discredit the whole thing, is going to fail, and by failing it strengthens the other side.

Perhaps. I doubt it. My scenario is that it discredits the Greens as a credible challenge to Labour, and hence removes pressure from Labour to move left on Palestine. The only upside is that Miliband seems to be invested in sanctions on settlements regardless of political manoeuvring.

What we have seen in the past three weeks is that many people who are non and anti-Zionist were forced to come out against the motion because they saw its risks. And the debate effectively legitimised the concept of Zionism and made it more difficult to criticise, not the opposite.

This is such an own-goal. Israel's genocidal government has pursued crimes against humanity for the last three. It is Palestinians very existence that is at risk. Yet Israel's advocates are able to turn this into a question of the survival of Jewish-Israeli society by asking about "right to exist".

An effective answer, in my view, should do three things. 1. Communicate that Israel is as a recognised state and that's a given 2. Communicate recognition for the legitimate rights of Israelis as individuals and a collective 3. Move the discussion to the Palestinian rights

This is such an own-goal. Israel's genocidal government has pursued crimes against humanity for the last three. It is Palestinians very existence that is at risk. Yet Israel's advocates are able to turn this into a question of the survival of Jewish-Israeli society by asking about "right to exist".

A secession is a very different story. A more appropriate comparison would be if the UK was amalgamated into a European mega state regardless of the sovereign will of the British people, and I'm pretty sure we'd hear about the UK's "right to exist" in that scenario.

And you'd need to get the consent of the Israeli public. Or impose it upon them, probably by force or sanctions. All this have highly destabilising implications on an international system which is built on recognised states and established boundaries.

A secession is a very different story. A more appropriate comparison would be if the UK was amalgamated into a European mega state regardless of the sovereign will of the British people, and I'm pretty sure we'd hear about the UK's "right to exist" in that scenario.

Imposing the amalgamation of 67-boundaries Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories into a single Palestinian state, regardless of the sovereign will of Israelis (and Palestinians, for that matter), does not resemble Scottish secession, through an legally agreed referendum and process.

"Does Israel have the right to exist" is a deeply problematic question: "right" can mean very different things, and Israel is not a stable geographic term. Having said that, "no state has the right to exist" is a smartass response that doesn't really work (unless you're an anarchist of course).

Israel in its 1967 boundaries is a recognised UN state member and as such has all the rights and duties of all other states. It's not difficult to say, and if you can't, then some people would reasonably assume that you're ok with dismantling that state by force.

Liberal Kahanism