Zac

Zac

@zorm.org

Weather nerd building WeatherWary. Ex-AWS, Ex-First Street

184 followers142 following49 posts

The hurricane hunters will be busy this week. 3 flights tomorrow and 1 currently in the air

All eyes on the gulf and eastern pacific this week as we await formation of new tropical systems. Here's a look at the model trends over the past few days.

Typhoon Dujuan is very pretty. At least the Pacific is making up for a lackluster Atlantic

These ads are unhinged. The bets are so specific as to guarantee an uninformed person will lose money on the weather.

Zac reposted

Through extraordinary efforts, @windbornewx.bsky.social successfully navigated a controllable balloon above powerful Typhoon Dolphin, descended into its eye, then collected multiple vertical profiles as we circled inside its eye. A first of its kind type of hurricane data collection.

A little heat burst north of NYC tonight. Nearly 11pm and the heat index is still 102F.

The surge in bets is all the automated bettors responding to the data. Given the long tail you can see plenty of money to be made with faster data still.

Financial Times@financialtimes.com

France’s weather forecasting service has filed a police complaint after detecting anomalies in its temperature gauges at Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport, which coincided with a surge in well-timed bets on prediction market Polymarket. ft.trib.al/VFmVCZp

I know there have been some Project 2029 memes, but what do we need to make it real? Fundraising infrastructure outside Act Blue / DNC? Effective GOTV infrastructure? The vision for a better tomorrow for all of us is easy. No need for vengeance against anyone, just a plan to make a better country

Nice paper by Brice Coffer et al last week that moves us closer to reliable tornado prediction. They resolve issues in model datasets that previously prevented discrimination. Also they look at how observed storm motion compares to Bunkers in tornado vs non-tornado. arxiv.org/abs/2503.15466

Nice to see The NY Times feature our work on the next housing affordability crisis: climate change.

Zac reposted

Zac reposted

More NWS tornado warning trivia. In Oct 2003, the directive for duration changed from "should be 30 to 60 minutes" to 15 to 45 minutes. Plot shows pdf 4 years before and after official change. Early (late) 70.6% (70.6%) from 30 to 60, 66.9% (62.8%) from 15 to 45.

Never really appreciated the last time I had honey roasted peanuts and a plastic cup on Southwest.

You might not make the lists but you are easily one of my favorite follows on these platforms!

Stephen Strader@stephenmstrader.bsky.social

Being on here and not being part of a list or group based on expertise because I tend to bridge groups (met, clim, haz, soc sci, engineering)...

Exploring how RTMA represents derecho events and looking at SPC performance here. Both seem pretty reasonable

You are up to date.