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There are, to me, two explanations for the Pats having 3 WR in the top 6 of Catch Rate over Expectation: 1) Boutte, Diggs, and Hollins are all stars/having spectacular seasons 2) The QB throwing the ball to them is a star/having a spectacular season The latter seems more plausible to me.

rynqed.bsky.social@rynqed.bsky.social

And maybe the receivers are also just good?

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They all have good focus and reliable hands, and that allows them to take advantage of his ability to get the ball anywhere he wants without needing them to be able to beat coverage on their own.

I agree. Maye's been terrific except for a few weird blips (start of the Bengals game, second half against Falcons and Bills). Capitalizing on weak opposition is what superior quarterbacks are supposed to do. He has.

Why not both? Those guys have made some objectively difficult catches. But there is SOMETHING about how Maye throws ball, particularly long throws. The ball itself just looks very easy to catch. The arc and spin? No doubt Maye has elite touch. Would spread credit 40% receivers, 60% Maye.

Others have offered Explanation Three, so I shall abstain. But explanation 3 also explains how the Patriots had two rookie starters on the left side of their line who played well, but then got hurt, but then their backups also played well. (Explanation 2 can also be very true).

How much of CPOE do you credit to the QB? Obviously a catchable ball still has to be thrown, but even still the receivers have to make the play. This is not in regards to Drake Maye but CPOE has always felt a more receiver focused stat to me. Joe Burrow usually ranks high cause Chase and Higgins

2 of those 3 receivers are well over 30. Seeing them have seasons above the expectation, when we know who they are very well, is also more likely to be on the QB then on the receiver.

This is probably true, but the problem is that the intent of CPOE is to factor out the QB and isolate WR play. If you are right, then the metric is worthless. And if that metric is worthless, which other advanced metrics might also worthless? How can we be confident in them?