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I think it’ll change the landscape more in pressure on price as alternatives crop up. I’ve coded my way out of at least one expensive subscription. But you still need to be good at project management and at least get the theory of the architecture you’re building or else it’ll be fragile as hell.

I think it’s still a really long ways away from an average person asking for what they need and the system giving it back to them functional, durable and iterable. The average person doesn’t really even know how to ask for what they need.

+1, totally there's very different markets, skills and appetites between randos like us rolling our own tools (very rare) and some median dev who is already in charge of trying to chip away at some corpo need themselves suddenly having more powers

Curious how confident you feel in this. It feels like the sort of thing that is absolutely going to change my day-to-day, but I also feel that I will be one of the only people in my circles to take advantage of this - everyone else is gonna keep paying for quickbooks.

long tail of unknown unknowns is something you really don't want to have to think about in rolling your own finance software I think . for pdf reader or something sure

Oof I dunno the PDF spec was one of my first document-read-jump-scares. The model that I’m leaning towards these days is more ‘carpenter building their own jigs’ than ‘carpenter building their own saws’

in the way that we see distributions now probably, like the 1-9-90 rule or similar I suspect there will still be (always be?) a market for making a thing and selling it because people can't be bothered or are unaware of rolling their own I also suspect that the ratio of that ROI will shift around

it's also a market thing - we see this already with non-software industries relying on old crappy software every day someone makes a garbage truck route scheduling program and sells decades because no one else is interested in making a sleeker one maybe vibe coding will _increase_ saas competition

Do you really believe LLMs will be capable of this? Or, do you think that another breakthrough is necessary?

capable of which?

" why would I pay monthly for <tool> when the same cost (maybe less!) can make that and also anything else I need"