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the "agentic" vision of computing is a spam world where everyone has their own personal army of spam bots working 24/7 on their behalf choking everything with spam to try and get one over on the next guy. and that's just not something that can really... exist, long term?

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It often strikes me how many proposed uses for agents rely on the assumption that they're the only ones with them, they'll be ahead, & nobody will adapt policies accordingly. "Spam insurance to get denials appealed!" like insurance wouldn't be using agents to mass-reject those same appeals

it just leads to a world where things you are currently able to do online get shut down and turned into exclusively in-person only services, because they won't be able to cope. the "everyone is a concert ticket scalper" society.

you're not going to use "agents" to do chores for you because the services they'd need to interact with will simply not exist to to get abused by agents. "agents" are not an interface, they're an attack tool.

the dream for these companies is that everything becomes a chatbot interface, and everyone interacts with them by having their own agent talk to the chatbot interface, and therefore you just pay a token tax to do anything—buy stuff online, get customer service, evertying

but like... why. why would you assume this is something that can actually, economically, function. the technology can always produce more spam and slop than it can produce useful output, the bad output always outpaces and drives out the good.

The question is whether the hour of dealing with a support bot and a phone tree and just "being on hold" that is necessary to deal with the cable company exists because your cable company can't do better than that, or because putting a time tax in front of users is how they scare off requests.

isn't it basically everyone paying to add friction to the system... up until that friction melts the system? As you say, it doesn't really seem viable to actually produce outcomes, because it's just going to turn things off over time

Possible futures for agents -- This all falls apart (likely) Distributed identity follows these things around so you only interact with well behaved agents (unlikely but interesting) Walled gardens again (they hope)