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Breaking News! Code UFB!!! For the first time in recorded history, the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) is above 30.0°C, reaching a preliminary SST of 30.06°C on October 5th. The Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is now 3.41°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Everything is not fine.

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On a related note: Is anyone going to COP31 in Turkey? On the fist day, I hear they have a good jazz band playing at the Chevron Happy Hour. And afterwards, I heard there's a presentation on "Maximizing cash flow while placating government interventions". Gonna be fun!

How is the temperature recoded? With lots of marine buoys? (I think T. Defunded some). or in other ways? Which oceans? The Pacific since it is El Niño? Just curious to understand.

Google, Claude or ChatGPT can answer your questions. The Prof I would guess is to busy to explain these basic questions and no doubt has here and there in his posts, youtube vids etc throught the years.

The ocean is the Pacific, an specific region (3.4) where the trade usually pools hot water (heated by the sun in the surface of the sea) in the direction of Australia. When the trade winds get weaker, the hot water comes back in the direction of South America, and the sea surface is hotter overall.

I like to think of an El Nino as an ocean's burp. That burp moves some of the stored heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. After this burp, the atmosphere will be warmer, and the next burp will warm it even more.

It will be interesting to see what happens. After the last one, the temperature didn't drop back down as expected. We'll have to see how big the step is this time round.

Part of the change is natural El Nino cycle (which will go away & return as it does), part is Climate Collapse (in the RONI measure, which ajusts for climate change, we are not in record territory yet). The Climate Collapse part won't go away in a human scale time.

The ECMWF ensemble output has a peak in December, but more interesting is the range in April is still 2.35 to 3.85C. That seems really high for a time when it should be weakening, though it will be falling from a very high peak. I wonder if winter impacts will last longer into the spring.

true story. you may also encounter "Yikes!" (self explanatory), "gobsmackingly bananas" (1st coined by Zeke H, if memory serves?) and FUBAR (f'd up beyond all recognition). this graph has already crossed the "uncharted territory" threshhold. it's a hot new world

I kinda feel like I'm one of that pair of scientists that realized they were trapped by a lava flow and had no hope of surviving and they knew it.

I do not know how climate works - only that I have been following it for years. And every prediction ends up happening "earlier than predicted" - or "we did not see that coming." I think what this causes could be one of those things that no one predicted.

A gently line going right into you heart. Thin enough to cut your throat. Just be quite and feel how warm Is this liquid flowing in your hands.

Depends on where you are. Here in Brasil it means heatwaves, floods in the south and drought in the north (specially in Amazonia). But I don't know much of the effects in the rest of the world.