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This is so essential for Europeans to understand: "Russia is not a threat to us in the short term." Europe has time to urgently and rapidly build a common defence without America. If we... 🧵

Russia has taken 4 years to fail to invade Ukraine You think they're about to invade the whole of western Europe? Agreed, NATO needs America, but once trump is gone , and he WILL be gone soon, there WILL be grown ups in the Whitehouse

At this point in today I’ll take this bit of hope. One of many things that worry me though is who comes after Trump from his administration 😵‍💫

They are all as dumb as they appear Johnson ?? Not a chance And the main "man" miller .. my god .. completely insane and revolting But only trump has the "appeal" He does have something It's just not presidential

I sincerely disagree with @jarlov.bsky.social that Russia is not a threat to us in the short term. They have the capability to test the alliance even while the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, and Putin is not going to sit passively and watch while we support Ukraine until he loses the war.

I would doubt that Putin would open an additional conventional front against Europe by attacking e.g. a Baltic country even if they could spare a couple of divisions. More likely is increased hybrid and/or terror attacks.

Maybe if he can see that he is losing in Ukraine. If he believes that whatever he does in Ukraine won't work, he might try something else. Threatening or attacking into the Baltics might spook the Europeans to pressure Ukraine into "peace" or at the very least divert arms from Ukraine to ourselves

I concur. As am I sure most of my colleagues in strategic defence analysis and planning do. It all depends on your timeline, planning horizons and assumptions, of course. But Russia very much is a threat in the short-term. Particularly in the window 2029-2031. 1/

That's a view shared by the General Staffs of the Bundeswehr, French Armed Forces and, increasingly, UK Armed Forces and others, especially of the Baltic states and Scandinavia. Furthermore, Russia could potentially mount some kind of "polite people"/hybrid op akin to Crimea 2014 prior to then. 2/

"Not a threat" means not capable of an invasion of the European Union at this time (too exhausted at the moment from the Ukraine War). If you're citing a vague ability to "test the alliance" as a reason not to build independent European defence without the US, I find that a very strange argument.

Russia is not too exhausted by the war in Ukraine to also attack the Baltic states (and by that the European Union). You see it as two different wars, but for Russia it would be two fronts in the same war, and it would be about diverting our resources from Ukraine to ourselves.