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This is so essential for Europeans to understand: "Russia is not a threat to us in the short term." Europe has time to urgently and rapidly build a common defence without America. If we... 🧵

Dave Keating

@davekeating.substack.com

2 Apr

🧵...If we listen to Mark Rutte and do nothing because "there is no alternative to NATO" (Rutte) and "there is no NATO without the US" (Kallas) we are leaving ourselves as sitting ducks when Russia eventually invades and the US does not defend us. To save itself, Europe's NATO delusion must end.

Anders Puck Nielsen

@anderspucknielsen.dk

2 Apr

I sincerely disagree with @jarlov.bsky.social that Russia is not a threat to us in the short term. They have the capability to test the alliance even while the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, and Putin is not going to sit passively and watch while we support Ukraine until he loses the war.

Dave Keating

@davekeating.substack.com

"Not a threat" means not capable of an invasion of the European Union at this time (too exhausted at the moment from the Ukraine War). If you're citing a vague ability to "test the alliance" as a reason not to build independent European defence without the US, I find that a very strange argument.

2/4/26, 7:19 am0 reposts18 likes

Mads Ravn

@eupolemos.bsky.social

2 Apr

> If you're citing a vague ability to "test the alliance" as a reason not to build independent European defence without the US, I find that a very strange argument. What an aggressively weird take, considering who you are replying to 🫤

Anders Puck Nielsen

@anderspucknielsen.dk

2 Apr

Russia is not too exhausted by the war in Ukraine to also attack the Baltic states (and by that the European Union). You see it as two different wars, but for Russia it would be two fronts in the same war, and it would be about diverting our resources from Ukraine to ourselves.

chrismwheeler.bsky.social

@chrismwheeler.bsky.social

2 Apr

Russia already says it believes it is in a war with NATO, with NATO fighting on the Ukraine side. So indeed, just a second front. (And a weak front without troops experienced in modern Drone combat at that).

Anders Puck Nielsen

@anderspucknielsen.dk

2 Apr

And no, that is not an argument for not building a European defense without the US. I'm not sure how you got that impression.

Dave Keating

@davekeating.substack.com

2 Apr

You may not be using the 'Russia will imminently invade the EU' argument to block efforts to build European command and control and stick with a NATO-only strategy, but others (Rutte for instance) are. I strongly disagree that Russia has the capacity to launch and sustain an EU invasion tomorrow

heepst

@heepst.bsky.social

2 Apr

Russia produces enough drones and missiles to do it tomorrow if it wants to. Russia doesn't have the capacity to win. That's a different matter. Russia can't win in Ukraine but it still continues the war. We have no effective defense against drones as Russia's incursion to Poland demonstrated.

Dave Keating

@davekeating.substack.com

2 Apr

This isn't a zero-sum game. Saying Russia doesn't have the capacity to launch & sustain an invasion of the EU *tomorrow* isn't the same as saying they don't have the intention to and will have the capacity in a few years. Exaggerating Russia's capacity isn't helping, it results in European inertia.

Paulo Laranjo

@paulolaranjo.bsky.social

2 Apr

With this new way of warfare, it's cheaper to attack than to defend, it will be up to the industrial capability of drone manufacturing to saturate and bankrupt the enemy. The Davids of this life are capable to knock down Goliath.