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Brazil elected Lula again tonight. Poll averages appear to have had Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro effectively tied, maybe Bolsonaro up 1 on Lula — so not sure why the markets had this race at 80-20 Bolsonaro. Markets might miss big in the U.S. midterms in 9 days too.

David Rothschild

@davmicrot.bsky.social

Hypothesis (which I need to verify with data): most saliant political misses for Kalshi & PolyMarket in 2025-6 tend to be the markets favoring right-wing candidates. Could the tight connection into right-wing information ecosystem bias biasing prices?

torpike.bsky.social

@torpike.bsky.social

17h

I saw this preprint recently, which seems to disagree wrt mispricing. www.nber.org/system/files...

nber.orgnber.org

David Rothschild

@davmicrot.bsky.social

I have read that paper and talked to author on it: it is very solid, but it also covers the long arch of prediction markets. My questions come from the new prediction markets, which are uniquely aiming for mass volume and uniquely recruit from the right-wing ecosystem.

26/10/26, 7:00 pm1 repost4 likes

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