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Coreweave reminds me of nothing so much as bSquare, a web 1.0 company that went public (and acquired the company I worked for). Check out their S-1: pdf.secdatabase.com/1634/0000891...

In particular: "In 1997 and 1998, and for the six months ended June 30, 1999, 39%, 79% and 87% of our revenue, respectively, was generated under our master [...] agreement with Microsoft. [...] We do not believe that we could replace the Microsoft revenue in the short- or medium-term."

Like any company that goes public, CoreWeave is obligated to release a document that reveals its financial state, and the risks facing the business, and CoreWeave's disclosures show it's deeply unprofitable, burdened by debt and reliant on a few big customers. www.wheresyoured.at/core-incompetency/

CoreWeave has about $8bn in debt, and its indebtedness will undoubtedly only increase in years to come. And, like OpenAI, it loses more money than it makes, spending $1.43 to make $1, and needs tens of billion to keep growing. They feel built for collapse. www.wheresyoured.at/core-incompetency/

CoreWeave is a terrible business, with 77% of its revenue from two companies (Microsoft/NVIDIA), living and dying on the idea that generative will both is and will continue to be a high-growth business. Their business suggests gen. AI doesn't have legs. www.wheresyoured.at/core-incompetency/

Securities disclosures (like an S1) can be very revealing of problems with a company, but more with the numbers than with the "risk" commentary. Every company (even Apple) tells you they're on the verge of catastrophe, it's not so much "honesty" as ass covering. "You can't say we didn't warn you!"

Just extending the Apple example (because they're the easiest "very healthy and rich company"), their latest annual report linked below goes on and on about "risk factors" from pages 5 to 17. It buries anything that might be a genuine risk, and makes it functionally useless to investors.

okay

If genAI was the huge business that boosters keep claiming, CoreWeave ought to be making money hand over fist even if it's run by a tribe of drunken baboons. The fact that it's not means that either genAI is a bust as a business or NVIDIA is using its monopoly to pocket 100% of the profits.

Whats interesting is that their VP of operations says on linkedin he's been working there for 7 years. Do you think they were always building AI infrastructure? What have they been doing all this time?

which one? CoreWeave? They did crypto a few years ago

LLMs are just statistics on steroids.

Beautiful and well written as usual. Can I be a pain and ask to correct “Principal” instead of “Principle”, as I don’t know why, but so many spell it wrong, and makes things confusing for non-native english readers? Ta! 😅

No.

Strict, but fair. Why don’t you get in shorting the f out of this bubble?