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I also wonder if the shift by makers of memory and other hardware away from supplying the consumer market towards AI datacenters will lead to a "pandemic toilet paper" supply chain issue when the bubble does pop, where they don't have product where the demand is, and a glut where it dried up

I used to use a workstation graphics card for 3d rendering before I moved to just doing it all with 24 threads of CPU. The CUDA cores on these cards are useful for such tasks. But I suspect that most of them will wind up in landfills before they ever get used extensively.

Knowing these fuckwits, though. They just destroy those high-demand cards. Just to spite everyone.

Fully agree that advertising-in-LLMs is a huge gamble. But I think we've seen that SamA needs the money and doesn't have other options with large enough payouts to cover his debts. I'm not saying his odds seem good. Nor that I'll like the results.

pretty amazing amount of cash out there in companies though....meta lost 77b on metaverse and still has $$$ for ai data centers

And if something happens - like OpenAI dying - the odds of those companies (especially Microsoft) having to make an impairment - a massive writedown for all of these GPUs to the tune of $10bn+ as the demand disappears - further adding to the pain. www.wheresyoured.at/premium-timebomb/

Thanks for delaying my work for the last hour! Much appreciated! (sarcasm, so happy to be a paid sub.) (Terrific explanation of PPE btw.)

This all has a bit of a vibe of the whole AJP Taylor "WWI happened on train timetables" about it, like everything is a predetermined catastrophe, but no one can do anything about it...

[ Mexican psychedelic rock classic "The World is a Bomb" (1971) by The Survivals starts playing ] Wheeeeeeeeeee..…! open.spotify.com/track/5SoRhZ...

And taxpayers will bail them all out.