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It is important to know that despite its prominence TikTok loses billions of dollars and tweaking algorithms lays havoc to your ad sales. Oracle is gonna destroy this thing and it’s going to combine with the data center debt and consume it whole www.theinformation.com/articles/tik...

You may think that Larry Ellison has Elon musk money. He sort of does! But it’s all tied to Oracle stock and he’s tied $58bn in loans and $248bn in lease obligations to it. It’s like the dumbest possible way to do what Elon did in a more expensive and existential way

Bytedance precision tweaked the algorithm. They were/are very good at it. Oracle is a data base company and silver lake is a VC firm, they do not have the experience, and what keeps people on there is a very specific and regularly tweaked algorithm I imagine. Easy to mess up!

Larry Ellison’s wealth is made up of Oracle stock. Oracle has $58bn in data center debt, $248bn in lease obligations and negative $13bn cash flow. TikTok loses billions. This is setting up for one of the stupidest endings possible for this era

Great questions. Those are lease obligations for data center capacity it is building for OpenAI, and "how much revenue" is entirely based on whether OpenAI, a company that likely lost $10-$20bn in the most recent quarter, can afford to pay them $300bn over 5 years. bsky.app/profile/swif...

Now when I say "makes $100 billion" I actually mean "raises $100 billion in the next 6 months then also raises another $100 billion or more in 2027 and probably $100 billion more after that." In fact, OpenAI is going to need to raise all of that money, as they are impossibly unprofitable.

You may be thinking "Ed, how does OpenAI, a company that had at best $13 billion in revenue in 2025 and *lost $12 billion in the last quarter*, pay for a $300 billion cloud bill?" And the answer is they don't, the money doesn't exist, Oracle is screwed

There is just not that much liquid capital that can be raised for one company in the space of three years. TARP was $400bn! $300 billion is a shit ton of money, and the GPUs in question in some cases have negative 100% gross margins. Everybody takes a bath! bsky.app/profile/what...