Post

It is important to know that despite its prominence TikTok loses billions of dollars and tweaking algorithms lays havoc to your ad sales. Oracle is gonna destroy this thing and it’s going to combine with the data center debt and consume it whole www.theinformation.com/articles/tik...

pnwpolicyangel aka Angelita 👼@pnwpolicyangel.bsky.social

TikTok has been under new leadership for like a day and I made a slideshow with posts from the ICE rally today and it immediately got out under review and is not being published. Incredible.

You may think that Larry Ellison has Elon musk money. He sort of does! But it’s all tied to Oracle stock and he’s tied $58bn in loans and $248bn in lease obligations to it. It’s like the dumbest possible way to do what Elon did in a more expensive and existential way

62 reposts772 likes

Some media/soc media will fail. But as long as 99% of media become Right Wing, these ppl may be happy. Right now well over 50% is. Media are not their main businesses. If they lose $, it's still an investment in the party of tax cuts 4 the rich, deregulation etc. upine.medium.com/the-vast-rea...

so, if, theoretically, oracle crashed and went to zero, would he be ultrafucked financially as a person or would he just skate away like all the billionaires do every time

The thing is, by buying TikTok & turning it into "state social media", Ellison's ingratiating himself with the Trump administration & he could ultimately come out ahead anyway with govt contracts, favorable rulings & all of the other corruption that goes with being a key player in the oligarchy. /1

And with RW oligarchs controlling US media, they could stay in power a long time, well past the Trump administration. They are playing a long game here. We can't be naive about this. This is not a business (as usual) play. This is a RW oligarchy play. They are looking to take over for good. /2

Bytedance precision tweaked the algorithm. They were/are very good at it. Oracle is a data base company and silver lake is a VC firm, they do not have the experience, and what keeps people on there is a very specific and regularly tweaked algorithm I imagine. Easy to mess up!

Larry Ellison’s wealth is made up of Oracle stock. Oracle has $58bn in data center debt, $248bn in lease obligations and negative $13bn cash flow. TikTok loses billions. This is setting up for one of the stupidest endings possible for this era

Ed, are there any estimates of what % of Ellison's wealth is Oracle stock and what % is stock he already sold and banked the cash or invested? Would love nothing more than for Ellison's net worth to implode - just trying to figure out how much cash/$ liquid securities portfolio cushion he has.

The thing that amazes me is that Oracle’s core business is extremely profitable and all of the debt is new and because they convinced themselves that they couldn’t maintain market dominance without ai their customers don’t want

Great questions. Those are lease obligations for data center capacity it is building for OpenAI, and "how much revenue" is entirely based on whether OpenAI, a company that likely lost $10-$20bn in the most recent quarter, can afford to pay them $300bn over 5 years. bsky.app/profile/swif...

Swiffy@swiffy.bsky.social

What are the lease obligations? And what revenue will they generate? How do you owe that much to lease some kind of thing and not own it?

No it won’t! Oracle quintupled its PP&E in the last three years and attached a negative margin business to its declining sort of okay margin business. The only way to escape perdition is OpenAI pays it $300 billion. This is existential bsky.app/profile/timp...

Timpanogos Slim@timpanogosslim.bsky.social

Come on, Ed! It'll be the next X - The next Everything Site!

OpenAI has to pay Oracle $300 billion over the next 5 years, and OpenAI is *THE ONLY COMPANY IN THE WORLD* who would want this much compute. There is literally nobody else even close to its spend, even Anthropic. Oracle is only "okay" if OpenAI makes $100bn annually in revenue in 3 years.

If this ends with Netflix buying Paramount Skydance for pennies on the dollar when the Ellisons are scrambling for liquidity, I’m going to laugh for a month.

I want Ellison to fail miserably but I also don't want Netflix to be literally the only media conglomerate competing with Disney

What are the lease obligations? And what revenue will they generate? How do you owe that much to lease some kind of thing and not own it?

Oh no, punishment for the ultra-wealthy! Tax them. Using all that wealth to fuck up my day every fucking day means they have too much god damned money. Tax churches, too. And crypto. Tax that bullshit. FUCK

I’m sure that like Elon they kinda just assumed there was a department of wokeness they could cut and it would fix everything including their cost structure

It's kind of hard to out stupid Elon on these things. He's in debt to the Saudis for buying Twitter and now he's hidden that debt in xAI, something with even less chance of being able to pay it back.

Ellison hasnt 'run' Oracle in a long time. This is result of a weak Board and less gifted executive team. When the 6 car pile up happens will be hard not to gawk.

But is that even true? The direct losses on propaganda for Trump via tiktok will likely be made up and more by favorable regulatory treatment, corrupt government contracts, and insider deals brokered by Trump and those around him.

i'm talking oracle collapsing along with most if not all of ellison's wealth because he made hundreds of billions of dollars of deals that the company cannot afford and picked up $58bn of debt. Sure there could be a bailout but it won't fix the value of the stock