Post

It is important to know that despite its prominence TikTok loses billions of dollars and tweaking algorithms lays havoc to your ad sales. Oracle is gonna destroy this thing and it’s going to combine with the data center debt and consume it whole www.theinformation.com/articles/tik...

pnwpolicyangel aka Angelita 👼@pnwpolicyangel.bsky.social

TikTok has been under new leadership for like a day and I made a slideshow with posts from the ICE rally today and it immediately got out under review and is not being published. Incredible.

You may think that Larry Ellison has Elon musk money. He sort of does! But it’s all tied to Oracle stock and he’s tied $58bn in loans and $248bn in lease obligations to it. It’s like the dumbest possible way to do what Elon did in a more expensive and existential way

Bytedance precision tweaked the algorithm. They were/are very good at it. Oracle is a data base company and silver lake is a VC firm, they do not have the experience, and what keeps people on there is a very specific and regularly tweaked algorithm I imagine. Easy to mess up!

Larry Ellison’s wealth is made up of Oracle stock. Oracle has $58bn in data center debt, $248bn in lease obligations and negative $13bn cash flow. TikTok loses billions. This is setting up for one of the stupidest endings possible for this era

155 reposts961 likes

Ed, are there any estimates of what % of Ellison's wealth is Oracle stock and what % is stock he already sold and banked the cash or invested? Would love nothing more than for Ellison's net worth to implode - just trying to figure out how much cash/$ liquid securities portfolio cushion he has.

The thing that amazes me is that Oracle’s core business is extremely profitable and all of the debt is new and because they convinced themselves that they couldn’t maintain market dominance without ai their customers don’t want

Great questions. Those are lease obligations for data center capacity it is building for OpenAI, and "how much revenue" is entirely based on whether OpenAI, a company that likely lost $10-$20bn in the most recent quarter, can afford to pay them $300bn over 5 years. bsky.app/profile/swif...

Swiffy@swiffy.bsky.social

What are the lease obligations? And what revenue will they generate? How do you owe that much to lease some kind of thing and not own it?

No it won’t! Oracle quintupled its PP&E in the last three years and attached a negative margin business to its declining sort of okay margin business. The only way to escape perdition is OpenAI pays it $300 billion. This is existential bsky.app/profile/timp...

Timpanogos Slim@timpanogosslim.bsky.social

Come on, Ed! It'll be the next X - The next Everything Site!

OpenAI has to pay Oracle $300 billion over the next 5 years, and OpenAI is *THE ONLY COMPANY IN THE WORLD* who would want this much compute. There is literally nobody else even close to its spend, even Anthropic. Oracle is only "okay" if OpenAI makes $100bn annually in revenue in 3 years.

Now when I say "makes $100 billion" I actually mean "raises $100 billion in the next 6 months then also raises another $100 billion or more in 2027 and probably $100 billion more after that." In fact, OpenAI is going to need to raise all of that money, as they are impossibly unprofitable.

You may be thinking "Ed, how does OpenAI, a company that had at best $13 billion in revenue in 2025 and *lost $12 billion in the last quarter*, pay for a $300 billion cloud bill?" And the answer is they don't, the money doesn't exist, Oracle is screwed

If this ends with Netflix buying Paramount Skydance for pennies on the dollar when the Ellisons are scrambling for liquidity, I’m going to laugh for a month.

I want Ellison to fail miserably but I also don't want Netflix to be literally the only media conglomerate competing with Disney

What are the lease obligations? And what revenue will they generate? How do you owe that much to lease some kind of thing and not own it?

Oh no, punishment for the ultra-wealthy! Tax them. Using all that wealth to fuck up my day every fucking day means they have too much god damned money. Tax churches, too. And crypto. Tax that bullshit. FUCK