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Free newsletter: I go over NVIDIA's earnings, the reality of OpenAI's $100 billion round, and the "analyslop" phenomenon of speculative, lie-ridden fan fiction that gets framed as meaningful research and promoted by the mainstream media. www.wheresyoured.at/on-nvidia-an...

wheresyoured.atOn NVIDIA and AnalyslopEditor's note: a previous version of this newsletter went out with Matt Hughes' name on it, that's my editor who went over it for spelling errors and loaded it into the CMS. Sorry! Hey all! I’m going...

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Just a tiny bit of anecdata - my son in laws company (that he worked for) was bought by Nvidia over Xmas He said they had a engineering meeting to discuss benchmarking results Nvidia "mmm why are your results so poor compared to ours" SIL "oh you do your benchmarking like that!!! "

First, NVIDIA: on the surface things looked good, but obligations to suppliers like TSMC have nearly tripled from $30.8bn to $95.2bn, inventories are over $21 billion, and 36% ($77.7bn) of its FY2026 revenue came from two customers. Any capex cut is existential. www.wheresyoured.at/on-nvidia-an...

I'm not great at this, but looking at funding vs valuations in the disclosed funding rounds, they've sold off like 55% of the company by now? Obviously that assumes the investments happen.

Which brings me onto the main event: Analyslop, a new annoying brand of speculative fiction that moves markets because the media and investors don't understand anything, the latest example being Citrini Research's lie-filled "global intelligence crisis." www.wheresyoured.at/on-nvidia-an...

as for the commitment to TSM, there was an article a month or so ago about the TSM CEO talking to their customers' customers before committing to their massive Capex plans. They demand guarantees from nvda, who no doubt demand guarantees from hyperscalars, who can't use bankruptcy as an escape.

$21B is not much inventory for them, it's less than one month of revenues at this point, & probably includes things like chips & modules that can't ship until they are assembled (maybe waiting for DRAM?), but still have to be included somewhere on the balance sheet. Seems kind of low, actually.

$68B revenue and AR $38B? I don't know how these kind business run but that is like, crazy out of scale. Maybe that is normal for this type of biz but given the situation one would be worried about collecting. For us a small org, a huge red blinking light is big AR.