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I'm not great at this, but looking at funding vs valuations in the disclosed funding rounds, they've sold off like 55% of the company by now? Obviously that assumes the investments happen.

It's both deeply embarrassing and a failure of the media and markets' critical thinking that the Citrini Memo was taken seriously. No, Citrini's memo is not "provocative" or "brilliant" - it's slop! It doesn't hinge on any technological or financial evidence! www.wheresyoured.at/on-nvidia-an...

as for the commitment to TSM, there was an article a month or so ago about the TSM CEO talking to their customers' customers before committing to their massive Capex plans. They demand guarantees from nvda, who no doubt demand guarantees from hyperscalars, who can't use bankruptcy as an escape.

$21B is not much inventory for them, it's less than one month of revenues at this point, & probably includes things like chips & modules that can't ship until they are assembled (maybe waiting for DRAM?), but still have to be included somewhere on the balance sheet. Seems kind of low, actually.