Post

Free newsletter: The economics of AI don't make sense. Monthly subscriptions to AI services are scams that represent a product that is impossible for OpenAI and Anthropic to provide long term, and AI data centers are an economic disaster at scale. www.wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-dont-make-sense/

wheresyoured.atAI's Economics Don't Make SenseIf you liked this piece, please subscribe to my premium newsletter. It’s $70 a year, or $7 a month, and in return you get a weekly newsletter that’s usually anywhere from 5,000 to 18,000 words, includ...

284 reposts1K likes

I assume they are planning to just follow the Silicon Valley model of hemorrhaging VC money while they establish a user base with cheap/free products, then once people are locked in, start increasing prices and never stop. Worked for AirBnB, Uber, Amazon, every streaming service.

Right, and all these guys want to go public, at which point they'll be trapped in the cycle of shareholders expecting more profits every quarter for forever. So we'll probably see all the same moves: mass layoffs, worse products, more tiers, ads everywhere, and every scammy tactic they can imagine.

No you missed the point. The math for those companies you're citing doesn't apply here. Inference isn't cheap, and the margins aren't that high. Training sure as fuck isn't. And both require *massive* infrastructure build out. It's not enough to just get some customers. That's nothing.

Just a Q - how is giving people more than they're paying for, a scam? And since most users are on a rolling monthly contract, they can leave at any time? Scam against investors? They're well paid to spot these things, so no worries there either

Loss leading is a well recognised scam. This is not a temporary discount or trial, it is giving a false and misleading impression that the product is cheap to the customer.

Just a Q - why would I need a £5/month subscription to a glorified autocorrect to tell me I need to smoke weed and not vax to cure my tumor when I can go talk to my dipshit aunt's Facebook page to get the same advice for free?

Maybe the scam against investors seems as if not a lot of sympathy needs to be had if we visualise them entirely as arrogant venture capitalists, but the moment they manage to sell some of the bags off to e.g. pension funds, things change. And even in the first case, it's still a scam.

Curious what happens if NVIDIA drops the prices of chips when demand slows or if it gets some real competition. Would that change the cost model enough to make token prices closer to reasonable affordability?

China has a UV Lithrography machine prototype. Its not gonna be long before real competition happens. And no matter how many tarriffs the US puts on 'em, China will win that fight.

Loss leading is absolutely a scam. Misrepresentation of a discounted or trial period price as the actual price is misleading or deceptive to the consumer and unfair to competitors. Esp where you don't have inventory/capacity to serve at that price.

I listen to Better Offline and I don’t remember if you’ve talked about something I heard recently (I think it was on YT). The argument is that Apple “won” the AI wars by staying out of it and that local AIs running on Mac Minis are going to be what people use when the bubble bursts…

those models are unnecessary too, but simply being unnecessary isn't fatal and Apple doesn't ever have to make a good product, or any product, ever again: it must have about a trillion in cash by now? what pisses me off is they keep making actively terrible, customer hostile products

Basically, the current Cloud model sucks for all the reasons you mention, plus the useful ones just need to analyze YOUR data, not be so generalized and that the M series chips excel at this. That most companies will switch to this model when everything starts reflecting the real cost…

Finally remembered to subscribe to your thing, I figure I'm getting at least $70 worth of entertainment annually from the ways you describe this ongoing clown show :)

Excellent reporting! I work at a uni that has Gemini enterprise account. All the AI companies are trying to get locked in with education. How do you think this plays out for schools? Will they also see increases? I am not sure how many ppl in uni use it. Students prob most. Profs not as much

It feels just like the dot com bubble. Most companies failed and the 'net was a nerd's toy for awhile. But, there were a few companies that hung on and figured out how to make it work (Amazon). I'm wondering which company will survive the bubble bursting and finds out how to make AI profitable. 🤔