Free newsletter: In July, Apollo Economist Torsten Slok said that "AI better work out, or we have a problem." Facing ever-growing high-interest debt, negative-EBITDA AI labs and $200bn+ in warehoused GPUs, that's exactly what the AI industry has. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...
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The AI bubble is now a global problem, with the highest ever inflows of foreign capital into US equities in history, at a time when when a handful of AI-exposed stocks account for a terrifying proportion of US stock market's value. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...
Unlike previous bubbles, equities/stocks now account for the majority of household wealth (ahead of real estate), with economist Paul Kedrosky estimating that Americans hold over 60% of their liquid net work in stocks. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...
Retail investors have an estimated $4.65tn in direct exposure to AI-linked stocks - not including index funds - and account for ten times more of the market's trading volume than the Dot-Com Bubble. I fear the damage will be far worse. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...
As I've written extensively in the past, the AI bubble is nothing like the dot com bubble. The scale and concentration is different, and a simple 20% correction across the main AI stocks would be worse than the worst day of the Dot Com crash. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...
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The AI bubble is sustained by vibes and hype, and both have started to sour, with Gartner saying that we have more compute capacity than demand, and that 80% of neoclouds will go out of business by 2030, adding there's not enough revenue to justify them. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...
AI is also concentrated around a handful of companies, most notably NVIDIA, which is forecasting over $670bn in revenue next year, at a time when the debt its customers need to buy its chips is increasingly unaffordable as lenders sour on AI debt. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...
It's now confirmed that Amazon has warehouses of GPUs that can’t be installed, with in some cases "no clear path to doing so" despite taking billions in deliveries monthly. The RAM crisis was created by NVIDIA to boost its revenues through early delivery. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...
The GPU trade is the irrational core of the bubble, and the argument that hyperscalers are hoarding scarce commodities falls over when you see that *everyone* has billions in dark GPUs. NVIDIA seems to be channel stuffing, and we all suffer as a result. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...