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Free newsletter: In July, Apollo Economist Torsten Slok said that "AI better work out, or we have a problem." Facing ever-growing high-interest debt, negative-EBITDA AI labs and $200bn+ in warehoused GPUs, that's exactly what the AI industry has. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...

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It seems like we’re screwed either way. Path A: AI works out and you have mass unemployment of high income white collar employees, the economy crashes. Path B: AI doesn’t work out and you have these massive valuations collapse, the economy crashes. I don’t see a golden path here.

As I've written extensively in the past, the AI bubble is nothing like the dot com bubble. The scale and concentration is different, and a simple 20% correction across the main AI stocks would be worse than the worst day of the Dot Com crash. www.wheresyoured.at/ai-had-bette...

I am far from having a good understanding of economics, but I could of sworn there was a lesson in high school about not putting all your eggs in one basket.

The hit will be enormous. A huge portion of the market is a first, second or third derivative AI trade. Copper, energy, utilities, capital goods makers in addition to the obvious direct participants like chip makers, server makers, their channel partners, data centres, neoclouds etc...

Other exposures like private asset managers and banks are going to be the ones to watch out for. I suspect these firms have a lot more riding on the profitability of these players than some understand.

Everybody just assumed it would work. It's like if the whole tech industry had bought into the absurdity that was VR and followed meta in flushing tens of billions down the toilet.

Unhappy to say not quite as bad as it sounds

Cody@cody.chaos.net.nz

Years ago Anthropic promised to give Amazon (and others) a set number of shares when they went public. Accounting rules require them to count these shares as a liability with a value of "num of shares x estimated value per share". As Anthropic's estimated value increases, so does the paper liability

You made the Drudge Report by name, dude, which 5 years ago I would have said, so what, who cares, but honestly the Drudge Report is now like my favorite news source again, despite spending 20 years of my career saying it sucks/was biased

I don’t even know what their bias is anymore, but every single newspaper now is like them: “innocently” curating stories to form a very heavy-handed editorial narrative, but now that every publication is now doing that..