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Election Maps UK
@electionmaps.uk

It's polling day in Holborn & St Pancras, where Green Party Leader Zak Polanski is challenging Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali. 🌹 Labour are polling at 27.3% nationally, their highest since December 2024. 🌍 Greens are polling at 9.8% nationally, their lowest since September 2025.

8 reposts35 likes

Jack Price
@jacko381.bsky.social

Poll Check has a specific by-election model, for a General Election their prediction is in line with Election Maps UK. There really isn't some 'anti-Green agenda'.

Crimson_Cauldron (They/Them)
@crimsoncauldron.bsky.social

theres also the 9.8% prediction for greens from them when the national average is 11%ish, the lack of care when spelling Zack (WITH A C) polanski's name when they got annoyed at green party leaflets for an image with a previous constituency map that wasnt up to date, enough to make a post about it.

Election Maps UK
@electionmaps.uk

The Nowcast Projection for Holborn & St Pancras (caveat: not a specific by-election model) is as follows: 🌹 LAB: 39.7% (-9.2) 🌍 GRN: 29.3% (+18.9) ➡️ RFM: 12.2% (+6.1) 🌳 CON: 7.8% (+0.6) 🔶 LDM: 6.0% (+0.2) ◼️ RES: 1.6% (New) 🙋 Oth: 3.3% (-18.2)

eartheart1.bsky.social
@eartheart1.bsky.social

Well as the bookmakers have it as certain as 1/66 on for Labour one would think it would be a higher margin than this. Hard to know how the media outrage at Green policy will play out. Suspect this about how it will be but Greens could possibly do better and wouldn't be surprised

Rose 🇭🇰🇺🇦
@rosewasnthere.bsky.social

I think it might just be down to the lack of outsiders - it’s not like Gorton and Denton which was predicted to be a three way race (though obviously in the end labour got trounced) and or Makerfield which had the capacity to substantially change the political trajectory

Rose 🇭🇰🇺🇦
@rosewasnthere.bsky.social

Really the only thing that special about this byelection is that one of the candidates is the leader of the party; otherwise it might show some indications as to party strength in wealthier urban areas but its just not got the features other recent byelections have had

Daniel J. Menezes
@danjohnston.uk

I think it looks pessimistic since it doesn't account for their ground game in a by-election and other predictions have them closer. Would still say it's a labour win though, just by a tighter margin.

Steve Partridge
@sjpartridge.bsky.social

The Labour and Green numbers are almost identical to those achieved in May, when the Greens were on an all time high and Labour were floundering. Take into account the relative changes in the polls for the two parties and the negative publicity they've had since then, I think its optimistic.

Crimson_Cauldron (They/Them)
@crimsoncauldron.bsky.social

exactly! for someone who seemed to think that the green party leaflets attention to detail about the constituency map was something to make a whole post about. I think its quite clear there an underlying bias against the greens on this account

Looking out to sea.
@wildwildwind.bsky.social

It's always worth repeating that in an interview, Zack Polanski & Anna Stavrianakis, concluded, there is unfounded hysteria in Britain over Russian threats. They advocate a lessened defence policy and 'not to react'. How naive, and patronising, is that? tinyurl.com/4jc6xn2r

tinyurl.comRussia wants Europe used to not reacting, Helsing warnsRussian testing of European defences is meant to wear down the continent's willingness to respond at all, the UK managing director of the military artificial intelligence company Helsing told #ApexEur...