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It's polling day in Holborn & St Pancras, where Green Party Leader Zak Polanski is challenging Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali. 🌹 Labour are polling at 27.3% nationally, their highest since December 2024. 🌍 Greens are polling at 9.8% nationally, their lowest since September 2025.

You need to clarify what this is/means. I think you're saying you've extrapolated national polls to the byelection somehow?

It does appear to mean that.

It looks like it did a straight swap of Feinstein's 2024 vote to Polanski?

Why did no polling company commission a poll for this? Is it because the Nigel Fraudage party don't have a chance of winning?! 🤔

I think it might just be down to the lack of outsiders - it’s not like Gorton and Denton which was predicted to be a three way race (though obviously in the end labour got trounced) and or Makerfield which had the capacity to substantially change the political trajectory

This looks overly optimistic for the Greens.

I think it looks pessimistic since it doesn't account for their ground game in a by-election and other predictions have them closer. Would still say it's a labour win though, just by a tighter margin.

The Labour and Green numbers are almost identical to those achieved in May, when the Greens were on an all time high and Labour were floundering. Take into account the relative changes in the polls for the two parties and the negative publicity they've had since then, I think its optimistic.