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We’re starting from 215 seats this time, not 194 like in 2018. Using the raw seat swing as a measure for the wave isn’t useful.

He had his cult protecting him then. They're over it now. He's old, termed out and hurting them.

There were some very ugly immigration stories, but not enough to really drive the normies away. It was mostly just more people who hated him turned out than people who liked him. There wasn't a lot of persuasion. This is where we might've been pre-Iran. It's not where we are now.

And yet the dipfucks out there went back to the well for more!

He can try.

My mind is still boggled by the fact that this trumpster fire still has 34% approval ratings.

None of this matters unless Democrats go hard.

Yo I hate to beg and pester but could you also do the strongly approve/strongly disapprove just as their own? Because I think that's more representative of the real beliefs. No one feels *weakly* about Trump.

Could be worth a toggle switch option on the FiftyPlusOne Presidential Approval Chart

Who would have thought the shit sandwich would taste better the second time?

Sunk cost fallacy.

it’s still really funny how he got a rally round the flag effect from covid and completely fucked it. unique among western governments I think

index of archived 538 content, btw fivethirtyeightindex.com

Could any of his supporters have foreseen him letting them down? Again.

The Rise And Fall Of The Trump Reich

I would love to see this chart only with strongly approve or disapprove. I think that correlates better with potential voting outcomes.

Trans People, Immigrants and Doctors who perform abortions aren’t $selling our country to the highest bidders.

On the other hand, you might argue that a nation where 35% of the population approves of Donald Trump's current performance is far too stupid to govern itself effectively.

not just that ... it's getting worse, and moreso (as i think your email newsletter said today)