Post

After I wrote this I saw that in one post primary poll Peltola picks up most of the other Dan Sullivan vote in round 2. In the other post primary poll she wins in round one.

Our job now is to make that wave real and as big as possible. Don't knock on wood; KNOCK ON DOORS!

In other words keep in mind the only poll that will matter is the vote.

Vote!

The fact that trends were different pre 2016 and underestimated Dems instead of GOP doesn’t make me feel better at all since it really feels our info landscape have shifted so much since then. The Midwest senate misses over the last decade remain a huge concern.

I'm not sure if you explained, but how much incumbency do Husted and Moody get in your model?

What's an "SD?"

Medicaid scandal

And I should note on your bleg leading the article, the months after the midterms are the presidential election cycle, so don’t do it! “But in the months after, there is a predictable churn of people canceling monthly subscriptions after votes are tallied”

In Elliott we trust

I wonder if someone could figure out the advertising value of, on every drive, visible high gas prices. That's kinda like a Democratic billboard everywhere.