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Dem Senate candidates have lost a little less than 0.5 pts of vote margin over last 2 weeks, while the generic ballot has trended up for them by about 1 point. Overall state of the race is unchanged: Dems have leads well below size of normal poll error fiftyplusone.news/forecast/sen...

fiftyplusone.newshttps://fiftyplusone.news/forecast/senate

G Elliott Morris

@gelliottmorris.com

House remains a very very likely Dem flip, with anything from 220 to 260 seats inside the 95% uncertainty interval for normal error in polling and fundamentals models

26/10/26, 4:19 pm7 reposts115 likes

wingador.bsky.social

@wingador.bsky.social

20h

Similar to 2024, do you expect all close/tossup races to veer in the same direction? Or will there be less uniformity across the states?

Albert | Call the Map

@callthemap.com

20h

Not Elliott, but in our sims a single Senate race's margin swings about 7 points from night to night, and the part all races share is about 4. So close races tend to break the same way, just not in lockstep.