Post

Have thought about the probability of this (nuking Iran): Talk of "unconditional surrender" sounds eerie. Probability that Trump would bring it up goes to 1 over time (if it isn't there already). Conditional probability Hegseth would get onboard = 1. Now what could stop it? ...

(1) Cabinet: Rubio might understand the problem. But then my interpretation is that the Iran war is some Miller-Hegseth project to outflank him, and he is happy to see them fail. Bessent? I have a suspicion that he is smart enough to play dumb, might also get the point. But stick his head out?

Weirdly I would think that Gabbard might oppose it. RFK to protect the legacy of his family? Like Gabbard, he is crazy enough to happen on the right answer here. Otherwise: the rest will go along and some even blithely. Probablity non-zero, but very low, the cabinet would stop it.

(2) Someone leaking it to the media, pushback from the public. Might do it. But depends on where the chips fall. If Fox gets behind the idea or opposes it that would matter. Otherwise even counterproductive if it comes from the wrong people. Moderate probabilty that would work.

(3) GOP: I'd expect the likes of MTG to oppose it, but they have fallen out with Trump anyway. Graham? Maybe. GOP in Congress in general? Could work. But then while they must understand how Trump is dragging them down, they have not mustered any courage on anything. Probabilty low to moderate.

(4) Military leadership (and that might be the next step if plans are not leaked or shared). My guess is they'd mostly be appalled and push back, some even on the brink of refusal. But then could purge them until he has a promoted a bunch of loser careerists to the top posts who go along.

Best strategy to derail it might be to come up with some other ugly thing, borderline warcrimey, a super-macho Wunderwaffe and try to win Hegseth over. Probabilty it would end at this stage: moderately high, but not a given. Probability it isn't stopped at any stage: low, but non-negligible.

PS: Would rather not think through what the knock-on effects of such a decision might be. Pretty likely Putin would take it as a precedent. And thanks to everybody in the US who voted against "warmonger" Harris, so I have to think this through.

PPS: Are we seeing indications for such a course at the moment? Some things fit, but inconclusive in my view. My hunch is there would be leaks. 100% clean on opsec unlikely. Foreign intelligence would also know about it. We have not seen anything so far, so that would contradict it to some extent.

PPPS: Meant "But then Hegseth could purge them until he has promoted a bunch of loser careerists to the top posts who go along." Also thanks to Trump voters for having to put my hope on people like Gabbard, RFK or MTG.