Post

yes, this blog is v wrong, a shame because he's said some sensible & useful things in the past especially regarding apple app store policies & politics. ai watermarking interestingly invented by visiting researcher at OpenAI many years ago; co built it then sat on it as scared it would hit adoption

If you use Claude right now, then it doesn’t pick the “best” word for a sentence. It creates a distribution of possible words, assesses the probability of any given word fitting the slot, and randomly picks between them based on that probability.

The watermarking technology randomly shifts that final selection, imperceptibly shifting the virtual dice roll. A word which may have been picked to fill a particular slot 40% of the time may, post-watermarking, be picked 40.1% of the time, or 39.9% of the time.

If there is an unambiguous best word, such that any other word would be clearly worse for the slot, then the probability that any other word is selected will be minuscule before watermarking, and remain minuscule after watermarking

The false belief in the piece seems to boil down to “any time an AI system does anything other than select the most probable next word, it is performing worse than it otherwise would be.” This is demonstrably untrue: it exactly describes running a system with the “temperature” set to 1.

Generally agree but I assumed the differential would have to be significantly higher than this in order for the watermark to be discernible on relatively short blocks of text?

I think his view boils down to (1) he himself is acutely, existentially sensitive to that 0.1% difference; and (2) EU bureaucrats are know-nothing barbarians, wholly ignorant of the sacred mysteries of User Experience, motivated mainly by jealousy of American technological supremacy.

If you look at the examples in Google’s Nature paper, their examples boosts the 4th choice, “durian”, to the same likelihood as the 2nd the 3rd choices, “lychee” and “papaya”, even though the rankings from the LLM probability distribution (PLM) were: mango 0.50 lychee 0.30 papaya .015 durian 0.05

If it were changing from 40% to 40.1%, yes, we readers couldn’t tell the difference. But there’d be no embedded signal to detect to identify the prose as generated by a specific model. The percentage changes must be more significant than that.

I am perplexed because he is clearly a talented programmer. Hasn't he ever used an RNG? It's all a function of the seed used. "choices are still made at random, but the source of the randomness is different". if you have the seed, the randomness is replicable

I addressed this in a follow-up post yesterday. The per-token randomness in existing models is entirely in the interest of generating semantically better output. The fingerprinting scheme are not to improve output but to embed a signal in the output: daringfireball.net/2026/08/follow…

daringfireball.netFollow-Up Thoughts on Watermarking Schemes for AI-Generated TextI want the answers that I read to be cogent, lucid, accurate, blessedly terse — and ideally to strike a consistent tone that is pleasant to my reading ear. The genie is not going back in the bottle.

Thanks John. It’s a good follow up, and clear we now just disagree on the principle. For me: When a system produces a different answer every time you pull the trigger, I don’t see a big problem with constraining it to a subset of the answers it would already have produced

By my reading, Google's SynthID paper makes clear that if they limit themselves to applying the watermark to choices that are truly equivalent (per the model's PLM function), the watermark can't reliably be detected.

But the choices aren't from unranked lists. They're from ranked lists, and the only way to leave a signal strong enough to detect is to promote lower-ranked choices. The more subtle the promotion of lower-ranked choices, the weaker the fingerprint. Stronger signal necessarily means worse choices.

My read: he's not focussed on AI tech details (to a fault). Main energy is around AI altering meaning in order to watermark, which as a good writer really offends him. Maybe a bit of a purist's worry given the vast majority of terrible writing people are just fine putting out there professionally.

Alex is right. Lots of operating from incommensurable maps. sad confession about the epistemic regime we are entering: a world where texts are increasingly evaluated not by whether the receiver can turn them into knowledge, but by whether their pedigree checks out. Fools are in the temple.

Sourceless machine text is only a catastrophe for a culture of automatons. For the serious learner it is revealing: nothing left to trust but the work. Do you have a taste for truth? Do you know how to develop trust? Do you know how to test and verify? Do you know the limits of your knowledge?

He also doesn't understand regulation. (Or non American regulation, but I think the doesn't understand regulation) Not that EU regulators are perfect (cookies), but he does constantly filter everything through a lens of "the EU is are all to a person idiots" which is unhelpful commentary at best.

Gruber does that because he's primarily an Apple influencer, and in order to keep his access to Apple he needs to toe the party line that the EU is wrong. With regard to cookies, they're the worst workable solution because the ad industry strangled Do Not Track (browser-based, set once) in the crib.

I'm not sure he does it to keep his Apple access, He does it because he doesn't understand regulation and especially how different regulation is in other places. It may be worsened by hearing Apple Exec's views on it, but I think on a fundamental level, he just doesn't get it ...

... and the only way he can manage to square the circle is "EU regulators are morons" I'd argue the current cookie solution isn't workable or working. Most people don't give informed consent because who can with 275 different cookies. Regulation should have mandated a browser/system based system